Learning Graphical Models
Goal-Oriented Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning for Decentralized Agent Teams
Du, Hung, Nguyen, Hy, Thudumu, Srikanth, Vasa, Rajesh, Mouzakis, Kon
Connected and autonomous vehicles across land, water, and air must often operate in dynamic, unpredictable environments with limited communication, no centralized control, and partial observability. These real-world constraints pose significant challenges for coordination, particularly when vehicles pursue individual objectives. To address this, we propose a decentralized Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning (MARL) framework that enables vehicles, acting as agents, to communicate selectively based on local goals and observations. This goal-aware communication strategy allows agents to share only relevant information, enhancing collaboration while respecting visibility limitations. We validate our approach in complex multi-agent navigation tasks featuring obstacles and dynamic agent populations. Results show that our method significantly improves task success rates and reduces time-to-goal compared to non-cooperative baselines. Moreover, task performance remains stable as the number of agents increases, demonstrating scalability. These findings highlight the potential of decentralized, goal-driven MARL to support effective coordination in realistic multi-vehicle systems operating across diverse domains.
Conformal Constrained Policy Optimization for Cost-Effective LLM Agents
Si, Wenwen, Jang, Sooyong, Lee, Insup, Bastani, Osbert
While large language models (LLMs) have recently made tremendous progress towards solving challenging AI problems, they have done so at increasingly steep computational and API costs. We propose a novel strategy where we combine multiple LLM models with varying cost/accuracy tradeoffs in an agentic manner, where models and tools are run in sequence as determined by an orchestration model to minimize cost subject to a user-specified level of reliability; this constraint is formalized using conformal prediction to provide guarantees. To solve this problem, we propose Conformal Constrained Policy Optimization (CCPO), a training paradigm that integrates constrained policy optimization with off-policy reinforcement learning and recent advances in online conformal prediction. CCPO jointly optimizes a cost-aware policy (score function) and an adaptive threshold. Across two multi-hop question answering benchmarks, CCPO achieves up to a 30% cost reduction compared to other cost-aware baselines and LLM-guided methods without compromising reliability. Our approach provides a principled and practical framework for deploying LLM agents that are significantly more cost-effective while maintaining reliability.
Diffusion Models: A Mathematical Introduction
Maleki, Sepehr, Pourmoazemi, Negar
We present a concise, self-contained derivation of diffusion-based generative models. Starting from basic properties of Gaussian distributions (densities, quadratic expectations, re-parameterisation, products, and KL divergences), we construct denoising diffusion probabilistic models from first principles. This includes the forward noising process, its closed-form marginals, the exact discrete reverse posterior, and the related variational bound. This bound simplifies to the standard noise-prediction goal used in practice. We then discuss likelihood estimation and accelerated sampling, covering DDIM, adversarially learned reverse dynamics (DDGAN), and multi-scale variants such as nested and latent diffusion, with Stable Diffusion as a canonical example. A continuous-time formulation follows, in which we derive the probability-flow ODE from the diffusion SDE via the continuity and Fokker-Planck equations, introduce flow matching, and show how rectified flows recover DDIM up to a time re-parameterisation. Finally, we treat guided diffusion, interpreting classifier guidance as a posterior score correction and classifier-free guidance as a principled interpolation between conditional and unconditional scores. Throughout, the focus is on transparent algebra, explicit intermediate steps, and consistent notation, so that readers can both follow the theory and implement the corresponding algorithms in practice.
Enhancing Reinforcement Learning in 3D Environments through Semantic Segmentation: A Case Study in ViZDoom
Reinforcement learning (RL) in 3D environments with high-dimensional sensory input poses two major challenges: (1) the high memory consumption induced by memory buffers required to stabilise learning, and (2) the complexity of learning in partially observable Markov Decision Processes (POMDPs). This project addresses these challenges by proposing two novel input representations: SS-only and RGB+SS, both employing semantic segmentation on RGB colour images. Experiments were conducted in deathmatches of ViZDoom, utilizing perfect segmentation results for controlled evaluation. Our results showed that SS-only was able to reduce the memory consumption of memory buffers by at least 66.6%, and up to 98.6% when a vectorisable lossless compression technique with minimal overhead such as run-length encoding is applied. Meanwhile, RGB+SS significantly enhances RL agents' performance with the additional semantic information provided. Furthermore, we explored density-based heatmapping as a tool to visualise RL agents' movement patterns and evaluate their suitability for data collection. A brief comparison with a previous approach highlights how our method overcame common pitfalls in applying semantic segmentation in 3D environments like ViZDoom.
Convergence of Multiagent Learning Systems for Traffic control
Sen, Sayambhu, Bhatnagar, Shalabh
Rapid urbanization in cities like Bangalore has led to severe traffic congestion, making efficient Traffic Signal Control (TSC) essential. Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning (MARL), often modeling each traffic signal as an independent agent using Q-learning, has emerged as a promising strategy to reduce average commuter delays. While prior work Prashant L A et. al has empirically demonstrated the effectiveness of this approach, a rigorous theoretical analysis of its stability and convergence properties in the context of traffic control has not been explored. This paper bridges that gap by focusing squarely on the theoretical basis of this multi-agent algorithm. We investigate the convergence problem inherent in using independent learners for the cooperative TSC task. Utilizing stochastic approximation methods, we formally analyze the learning dynamics. The primary contribution of this work is the proof that the specific multi-agent reinforcement learning algorithm for traffic control is proven to converge under the given conditions extending it from single agent convergence proofs for asynchronous value iteration.
How Data Quality Affects Machine Learning Models for Credit Risk Assessment
Machine Learning (ML) models are being increasingly employed for credit risk evaluation, with their effectiveness largely hinging on the quality of the input data. In this paper we investigate the impact of several data quality issues, including missing values, noisy attributes, outliers, and label errors, on the predictive accuracy of the machine learning model used in credit risk assessment. Utilizing an open-source dataset, we introduce controlled data corruption using the Pucktrick library to assess the robustness of 10 frequently used models like Random Forest, SVM, and Logistic Regression and so on. Our experiments show significant differences in model robustness based on the nature and severity of the data degradation. Moreover, the proposed methodology and accompanying tools offer practical support for practitioners seeking to enhance data pipeline robustness, and provide researchers with a flexible framework for further experimentation in data-centric AI contexts.
Good-for-MDP State Reduction for Stochastic LTL Planning
Weinhuber, Christoph, De Giacomo, Giuseppe, Li, Yong, Schewe, Sven, Tang, Qiyi
We study stochastic planning problems in Markov Decision Processes (MDPs) with goals specified in Linear Temporal Logic (LTL). The state-of-the-art approach transforms LTL formulas into good-for-MDP (GFM) automata, which feature a restricted form of nondeterminism. These automata are then composed with the MDP, allowing the agent to resolve the nondeterminism during policy synthesis. A major factor affecting the scalability of this approach is the size of the generated automata. In this paper, we propose a novel GFM state-space reduction technique that significantly reduces the number of automata states. Our method employs a sophisticated chain of transformations, leveraging recent advances in good-for-games minimisation developed for adversarial settings. In addition to our theoretical contributions, we present empirical results demonstrating the practical effectiveness of our state-reduction technique. Furthermore, we introduce a direct construction method for formulas of the form $\mathsf{G}\mathsf{F}φ$, where $φ$ is a co-safety formula. This construction is provably single-exponential in the worst case, in contrast to the general doubly-exponential complexity. Our experiments confirm the scalability advantages of this specialised construction.
Constrained and Robust Policy Synthesis with Satisfiability-Modulo-Probabilistic-Model-Checking
Heck, Linus, Macák, Filip, Češka, Milan, Junges, Sebastian
The ability to compute reward-optimal policies for given and known finite Markov decision processes (MDPs) underpins a variety of applications across planning, controller synthesis, and verification. However, we often want policies (1) to be robust, i.e., they perform well on perturbations of the MDP and (2) to satisfy additional structural constraints regarding, e.g., their representation or implementation cost. Computing such robust and constrained policies is indeed computationally more challenging. This paper contributes the first approach to effectively compute robust policies subject to arbitrary structural constraints using a flexible and efficient framework. We achieve flexibility by allowing to express our constraints in a first-order theory over a set of MDPs, while the root for our efficiency lies in the tight integration of satisfi-ability solvers to handle the combinatorial nature of the problem and probabilistic model checking algorithms to handle the analysis of MDPs. Experiments on a few hundred benchmarks demonstrate the feasibility for constrained and robust policy synthesis and the competitiveness with state-of-the-art methods for various fragments of the problem.
Timely Clinical Diagnosis through Active Test Selection
Estévez, Silas Ruhrberg, Astorga, Nicolás, van der Schaar, Mihaela
There is growing interest in using machine learning (ML) to support clinical diagnosis, but most approaches rely on static, fully observed datasets and fail to reflect the sequential, resource-aware reasoning clinicians use in practice. Diagnosis remains complex and error prone, especially in high-pressure or resource-limited settings, underscoring the need for frameworks that help clinicians make timely and cost-effective decisions. We propose ACTMED (Adaptive Clinical Test selection via Model-based Experimental Design), a diagnostic framework that integrates Bayesian Experimental Design (BED) with large language models (LLMs) to better emulate real-world diagnostic reasoning. At each step, ACTMED selects the test expected to yield the greatest reduction in diagnostic uncertainty for a given patient. LLMs act as flexible simulators, generating plausible patient state distributions and supporting belief updates without requiring structured, task-specific training data. Clinicians can remain in the loop; reviewing test suggestions, interpreting intermediate outputs, and applying clinical judgment throughout. We evaluate ACTMED on real-world datasets and show it can optimize test selection to improve diagnostic accuracy, interpretability, and resource use. This represents a step toward transparent, adaptive, and clinician-aligned diagnostic systems that generalize across settings with reduced reliance on domain-specific data.
Can Linear Probes Measure LLM Uncertainty?
Dakhmouche, Ramzi, Letellier, Adrien, Gorji, Hossein
Effective Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) represents a key aspect for reliable deployment of Large Language Models (LLMs) in automated decision-making and beyond. Yet, for LLM generation with multiple choice structure, the state-of-the-art in UQ is still dominated by the naive baseline given by the maximum softmax score. To address this shortcoming, we demonstrate that taking a principled approach via Bayesian statistics leads to improved performance despite leveraging the simplest possible model, namely linear regression. More precisely, we propose to train multiple Bayesian linear models, each predicting the output of a layer given the output of the previous one. Based on the obtained layer-level posterior distributions, we infer the global uncertainty level of the LLM by identifying a sparse combination of distributional features, leading to an efficient UQ scheme. Numerical experiments on various LLMs show consistent improvement over state-of-the-art baselines.