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 Learning Graphical Models


RoS-Guard: Robust and Scalable Online Change Detection with Delay-Optimal Guarantees

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Online change detection (OCD) aims to rapidly identify change points in streaming data and is critical in applications such as power system monitoring, wireless network sensing, and financial anomaly detection. Existing OCD methods typically assume precise system knowledge, which is unrealistic due to estimation errors and environmental variations. Moreover, existing OCD methods often struggle with efficiency in large-scale systems. To overcome these challenges, we propose RoS-Guard, a robust and optimal OCD algorithm tailored for linear systems with uncertainty. Through a tight relaxation and reformulation of the OCD optimization problem, RoS-Guard employs neural unrolling to enable efficient parallel computation via GPU acceleration. The algorithm provides theoretical guarantees on performance, including expected false alarm rate and worst-case average detection delay. Extensive experiments validate the effectiveness of RoS-Guard and demonstrate significant computational speedup in large-scale system scenarios.


Practical Causal Evaluation Metrics for Biological Networks

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Estimating causal networks from biological data is a critical step in systems biology. When evaluating the inferred network, assessing the networks based on their intervention effects is particularly important for downstream probabilistic reasoning and the identification of potential drug targets. In the context of gene regulatory network inference, biological databases are often used as reference sources. These databases typically describe relationships in a qualitative rather than quantitative manner. However, few evaluation metrics have been developed that take this qualitative nature into account. To address this, we developed a metric, the sign-augmented Structural Intervention Distance (sSID), and a weighted sSID that incorporates the net effects of the intervention. Through simulations and analyses of real transcriptomic datasets, we found that our proposed metrics could identify a different algorithm as optimal compared to conventional metrics, and the network selected by sSID had a superior performance in the classification task of clinical covariates using transcriptomic data. This suggests that sSID can distinguish networks that are structurally correct but functionally incorrect, highlighting its potential as a more biologically meaningful and practical evaluation metric.


Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning for Heterogeneous Satellite Cluster Resources Optimization

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

This work investigates resource optimization in heterogeneous satellite clusters performing autonomous Earth Observation (EO) missions using Reinforcement Learning (RL). In the proposed setting, two optical satellites and one Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) satellite operate cooperatively in low Earth orbit to capture ground targets and manage their limited onboard resources efficiently. Traditional optimization methods struggle to handle the real-time, uncertain, and decentralized nature of EO operations, motivating the use of RL and Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning (MARL) for adaptive decision-making. This study systematically formulates the optimization problem from single-satellite to multi-satellite scenarios, addressing key challenges including energy and memory constraints, partial observability, and agent heterogeneity arising from diverse payload capabilities. Using a near-realistic simulation environment built on the Basilisk and BSK-RL frameworks, we evaluate the performance and stability of state-of-the-art MARL algorithms such as MAPPO, HAPPO, and HATRPO. Results show that MARL enables effective coordination across heterogeneous satellites, balancing imaging performance and resource utilization while mitigating non-stationarity and inter-agent reward coupling. The findings provide practical insights into scalable, autonomous satellite operations and contribute a foundation for future research on intelligent EO mission planning under heterogeneous and dynamic conditions.


Are LLMs The Way Forward? A Case Study on LLM-Guided Reinforcement Learning for Decentralized Autonomous Driving

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Are LLMs The W ay Forward? Abstract--Autonomous vehicle navigation in complex environments such as dense and fast-moving highways and merging scenarios remains an active area of research. In the past decade, many planning and control approaches have used reinforcement learning (RL) with notable success. However, a key limitation of RL is its reliance on well-specified reward functions, which often fail to capture the full semantic and social complexity of diverse, out-of-distribution situations. As a result, a rapidly growing line of research explores using Large Language Models (LLMs) to replace or supplement RL for direct planning and control, on account of their ability to reason about rich semantic context. However, LLMs present significant drawbacks: they can be unstable in zero-shot safety-critical settings, produce inconsistent outputs, and often depend on expensive API calls with network latency. This motivates our investigation into whether small, locally deployed LLMs ( 14B parameters) can meaningfully support autonomous highway driving through reward shaping rather than direct control. These models are attractive for practical deployment as they can run on a single GPU and avoid external API dependencies. We present a case study comparing RL-only, LLM-only, and hybrid approaches, where LLMs augment RL rewards by scoring state-action transitions during training, while standard RL policies execute at test time.


Regret Guarantees for Linear Contextual Stochastic Shortest Path

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

We define the problem of linear Contextual Stochastic Shortest Path (CSSP), where at the beginning of each episode, the learner observes an adversarially chosen context that determines the MDP through a fixed but unknown linear function. The learner's objective is to reach a designated goal state with minimal expected cumulative loss, despite having no prior knowledge of the transition dynamics, loss functions, or the mapping from context to MDP. In this work, we propose LR-CSSP, an algorithm that achieves a regret bound of $\widetilde{O}(K^{2/3} d^{2/3} |S| |A|^{1/3} B_\star^2 T_\star \log (1/ δ))$, where $K$ is the number of episodes, $d$ is the context dimension, $S$ and $A$ are the sets of states and actions respectively, $B_\star$ bounds the optimal cumulative loss and $T_\star$, unknown to the learner, bounds the expected time for the optimal policy to reach the goal. In the case where all costs exceed $\ell_{\min}$, LR-CSSP attains a regret of $\widetilde O(\sqrt{K \cdot d^2 |S|^3 |A| B_\star^3 \log(1/δ)/\ell_{\min}})$. Unlike in contextual finite-horizon MDPs, where limited knowledge primarily leads to higher losses and regret, in the CSSP setting, insufficient knowledge can also prolong episodes and may even lead to non-terminating episodes. Our analysis reveals that LR-CSSP effectively handles continuous context spaces, while ensuring all episodes terminate within a reasonable number of time steps.


A Multicollinearity-Aware Signal-Processing Framework for Cross-$β$ Identification via X-ray Scattering of Alzheimer's Tissue

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

X-ray scattering measurements of in situ human brain tissue encode structural signatures of pathological cross-$β$ inclusions, yet systematic exploitation of these data for automated detection remains challenging due to substrate contamination, strong inter-feature correlations, and limited sample sizes. This work develops a three-stage classification framework for identifying cross-$β$ structural inclusions-a hallmark of Alzheimer's disease-in X-ray scattering profiles of post-mortem human brain. Stage 1 employs a Bayes-optimal classifier to separate mica substrate from tissue regions on the basis of their distinct scattering signatures. Stage 2 introduces a multicollinearityaware, class-conditional correlation pruning scheme with formal guarantees on the induced Bayes risk and approximation error, thereby reducing redundancy while retaining class-discriminative information. Stage 3 trains a compact neural network on the pruned feature set to detect the presence or absence of cross-$β$ fibrillar ordering. The top-performing model, optimized with a composite loss combining Focal and Dice objectives, attains a test F1-score of 84.30% using 11 of 211 candidate features and 174 trainable parameters. The overall framework yields an interpretable, theory-grounded strategy for data-limited classification problems involving correlated, high-dimensional experimental measurements, exemplified here by X-ray scattering profiles of neurodegenerative tissue.


Learning to Trust: Bayesian Adaptation to Varying Suggester Reliability in Sequential Decision Making

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Autonomous agents operating in sequential decision-making tasks under uncertainty can benefit from external action suggestions, which provide valuable guidance but inherently vary in reliability. Existing methods for incorporating such advice typically assume static and known suggester quality parameters, limiting practical deployment. We introduce a framework that dynamically learns and adapts to varying suggester reliability in partially observable environments. First, we integrate suggester quality directly into the agent's belief representation, enabling agents to infer and adjust their reliance on suggestions through Bayesian inference over suggester types. Second, we introduce an explicit ``ask'' action allowing agents to strategically request suggestions at critical moments, balancing informational gains against acquisition costs. Experimental evaluation demonstrates robust performance across varying suggester qualities, adaptation to changing reliability, and strategic management of suggestion requests. This work provides a foundation for adaptive human-agent collaboration by addressing suggestion uncertainty in uncertain environments.


More Than Irrational: Modeling Belief-Biased Agents

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Despite the explosive growth of AI and the technologies built upon it, predicting and inferring the sub-optimal behavior of users or human collaborators remains a critical challenge. In many cases, such behaviors are not a result of irrationality, but rather a rational decision made given inherent cognitive bounds and biased beliefs about the world. In this paper, we formally introduce a class of computational-rational (CR) user models for cognitively-bounded agents acting optimally under biased beliefs. The key novelty lies in explicitly modeling how a bounded memory process leads to a dynamically inconsistent and biased belief state and, consequently, sub-optimal sequential decision-making. We address the challenge of identifying the latent user-specific bound and inferring biased belief states from passive observations on the fly. We argue that for our formalized CR model family with an explicit and parameterized cognitive process, this challenge is tractable. To support our claim, we propose an efficient online inference method based on nested particle filtering that simultaneously tracks the user's latent belief state and estimates the unknown cognitive bound from a stream of observed actions. We validate our approach in a representative navigation task using memory decay as an example of a cognitive bound. With simulations, we show that (1) our CR model generates intuitively plausible behaviors corresponding to different levels of memory capacity, and (2) our inference method accurately and efficiently recovers the ground-truth cognitive bounds from limited observations ($\le 100$ steps). We further demonstrate how this approach provides a principled foundation for developing adaptive AI assistants, enabling adaptive assistance that accounts for the user's memory limitations.


Scaling Law Analysis in Federated Learning: How to Select the Optimal Model Size?

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The recent success of large language models (LLMs) has sparked a growing interest in training large-scale models. As the model size continues to scale, concerns are growing about the depletion of high-quality, well-curated training data. This has led practitioners to explore training approaches like Federated Learning (FL), which can leverage the abundant data on edge devices while maintaining privacy. However, the decentralization of training datasets in FL introduces challenges to scaling large models, a topic that remains under-explored. This paper fills this gap and provides qualitative insights on generalizing the previous model scaling experience to federated learning scenarios. Specifically, we derive a P AC-Bayes (Probably Approximately Correct Bayesian) upper bound for the generalization error of models trained with stochastic algorithms in federated settings and quantify the impact of distributed training data on the optimal model size by finding the analytic solution of model size that minimizes this bound. Our theoretical results demonstrate that the optimal model size has a negative power law relationship with the number of clients if the total training compute is unchanged. Besides, we also find that switching to FL with the same training compute will inevitably reduce the upper bound of generalization performance that the model can achieve through training, and that estimating the optimal model size in federated scenarios should depend on the average training compute across clients. Furthermore, we also empirically validate the correctness of our results with extensive training runs on different models, network settings, and datasets.


CriticSearch: Fine-Grained Credit Assignment for Search Agents via a Retrospective Critic

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Tool-Integrated Reasoning (TIR) with search engines enables large language models to iteratively retrieve up-to-date external knowledge, enhancing adaptability and generalization in complex question-answering tasks. However, existing search agent pipelines typically depend on reinforcement learning based optimization, which often suffers from sparse outcome rewards, leading to inefficient exploration and unstable training. We introduce CriticSearch, a fine-grained credit-assignment framework that supplies dense, turn-level feedback via a retrospective critic mechanism. During training, a frozen, asymmetric critique LLM retrospectively evaluates each turn using privileged information from the full trajectory and gold answers, converting these assessments into stable, dense rewards that guide policy improvement. Experimental results across diverse multi-hop reasoning benchmarks demonstrate that CriticSearch consistently outperforms existing baselines, achieving faster convergence, improved training stability, and higher performance.