Assessing the veracity of claims made on the Internet is an important, challenging, and timely problem. While automated fact-checking models have potential to help people better assess what they read, we argue such models must be explainable, accurate, and fast to be useful in practice; while prediction accuracy is clearly important, model transparency is critical in order for users to trust the system and integrate their own knowledge with model predictions. To achieve this, we propose a novel probabilistic graphical model (PGM) which combines machine learning with crowd annotations. Nodes in our model correspond to claim veracity, article stance regarding claims, reputation of news sources, and annotator reliabilities. We introduce a fast variational method for parameter estimation. Evaluation across two real-world datasets and three scenarios shows that: (1) joint modeling of sources, claims and crowd annotators in a PGM improves the predictive performance and interpretability for predicting claim veracity; and (2) our variational inference method achieves scalably fast parameter estimation, with only modest degradation in performance compared to Gibbs sampling. Regarding model transparency, we designed and deployed a prototype fact-checker Web tool, including a visual interface for explaining model predictions. Results of a small user study indicate that model explanations improve user satisfaction and trust in model predictions. We share our web demo, model source code, and the 13K crowd labels we collected.

Counting the linear extensions of a given partial order is a #P-complete problem that arises in numerous applications. For polynomial-time approximation, several Markov chain Monte Carlo schemes have been proposed; however, little is known of their efficiency in practice. This work presents an empirical evaluation of the state-of-the-art schemes and investigates a number of ideas to enhance their performance. In addition, we introduce a novel approximation scheme, adaptive relaxation Monte Carlo (ARMC), that leverages exact exponential-time counting algorithms. We show that approximate counting is feasible up to a few hundred elements on various classes of partial orders, and within this range ARMC typically outperforms the other schemes.

We cast the problem of combinatorial auction design in a Bayesian framework in order to incorporate prior information into the auction process and minimize the number of rounds to convergence. We first develop a generative model of agent valuations and market prices such that clearing prices become maximum a posteriori estimates given observed agent valuations. This generative model then forms the basis of an auction process which alternates between refining estimates of agent valuations and computing candidate clearing prices. We provide an implementation of the auction using assumed density filtering to estimate valuations and expectation maximization to compute prices. An empirical evaluation over a range of valuation domains demonstrates that our Bayesian auction mechanism is highly competitive against the combinatorial clock auction in terms of rounds to convergence, even under the most favorable choices of price increment for this baseline.

Predicting epidemic dynamics is of great value in understanding and controlling diffusion processes, such as infectious disease spread and information propagation. This task is intractable, especially when surveillance resources are very limited. To address the challenge, we study the problem of active surveillance, i.e., how to identify a small portion of system components as sentinels to effect monitoring, such that the epidemic dynamics of an entire system can be readily predicted from the partial data collected by such sentinels. We propose a novel measure, the gamma value, to identify the sentinels by modeling a sentinel network with row sparsity structure. We design a flexible group sparse Bayesian learning algorithm to mine the sentinel network suitable for handling both linear and non-linear dynamical systems by using the expectation maximization method and variational approximation. The efficacy of the proposed algorithm is theoretically analyzed and empirically validated using both synthetic and real-world data.

The learning problem for Factorial Hidden Markov Models with discrete and multi-variate latent variables remains a challenge. Inference of the latent variables required for the E-step of Expectation Minimization algorithms is usually computationally intractable. In this paper we propose a variational learning algorithm mimicking the Baum-Welch algorithm. By approximating the filtering distribution with a variational distribution parameterized by a recurrent neural network, the computational complexity of the learning problem as a function of the number of hidden states can be reduced to quasilinear instead of quadratic time as required by traditional algorithms such as Baum-Welch whilst making minimal independence assumptions. We evaluate the performance of the resulting algorithm, which we call Variational BOLT, in the context of unsupervised end-to-end energy disaggregation. We conduct experiments on the publicly available REDD dataset and show competitive results when compared with a supervised inference approach and state-of-the-art results in an unsupervised setting.

To alleviate traffic congestion in urban areas, electronic toll collection (ETC) systems are deployed all over the world. Despite the merits, tolls are usually pre-determined and fixed from day to day, which fail to consider traffic dynamics and thus have limited regulation effect when traffic conditions are abnormal. In this paper, we propose a novel dynamic ETC (DyETC) scheme which adjusts tolls to traffic conditions in realtime. The DyETC problem is formulated as a Markov decision process (MDP), the solution of which is very challenging due to its 1) multi-dimensional state space, 2) multi-dimensional, continuous and bounded action space, and 3) time-dependent state and action values. Due to the complexity of the formulated MDP, existing methods cannot be applied to our problem. Therefore, we develop a novel algorithm, PG-beta, which makes three improvements to traditional policy gradient method by proposing 1) time-dependent value and policy functions, 2) Beta distribution policy function and 3) state abstraction. Experimental results show that, compared with existing ETC schemes, DyETC increases traffic volume by around 8%, and reduces travel time by around 14:6% during rush hour. Considering the total traffic volume in a traffic network, this contributes to a substantial increase to social welfare.

Graphical models offer techniques for capturing the structure of many problems in real-world domains and provide means for representation, interpretation, and inference. The modeling framework provides tools for discovering rules for solving problems by exploring structural relationships. We present the Structural Affinity method that uses graphical models for first learning and subsequently recognizing the pattern for solving problems on the Raven's Progressive Matrices Test of general human intelligence. Recently there has been considerable work on computational models of addressing the Raven's test using various representations ranging from fractals to symbolic structures. In contrast, our method uses Markov Random Fields parameterized by affinity factors to discover the structure in the geometric analogy problems and induce the rules of Carpenter et al.'s cognitive model of problem-solving on the Raven's Progressive Matrices Test. We provide a computational account that first learns the structure of a Raven's problem and then predicts the solution by computing the probability of the correct answer by recognizing patterns corresponding to Carpenter et al.'s rules. We demonstrate that the performance of our model on the Standard Raven Progressive Matrices is comparable with existing state of the art models.

Many vision and language tasks require commonsense reasoning beyond data-driven image and natural language processing. Here we adopt Visual Question Answering (VQA) as an example task, where a system is expected to answer a question in natural language about an image. Current state-of-the-art systems attempted to solve the task using deep neural architectures and achieved promising performance. However, the resulting systems are generally opaque and they struggle in understanding questions for which extra knowledge is required. In this paper, we present an explicit reasoning layer on top of a set of penultimate neural network based systems. The reasoning layer enables reasoning and answering questions where additional knowledge is required, and at the same time provides an interpretable interface to the end users. Specifically, the reasoning layer adopts a Probabilistic Soft Logic (PSL) based engine to reason over a basket of inputs: visual relations, the semantic parse of the question, and background ontological knowledge from word2vec and ConceptNet. Experimental analysis of the answers and the key evidential predicates generated on the VQA dataset validate our approach.

Markov Random Field (MRF) is a powerful framework for developing probabilistic models of complex problems. MRF models possess rich structures to represent properties and constraints of a problem. It has been successful on many application problems, particularly those of computer vision and image processing, where data are structured, e.g., pixels are organized on grids. The problem of identifying communities in networks, which is essential for network analysis, is in principle analogous to finding objects in images. It is surprising that MRF has not yet been explored for network community detection. It is challenging to apply MRF to network analysis problems where data are organized on graphs with irregular structures. Here we present a network-specific MRF approach to community detection. The new method effectively encodes the structural properties of an irregular network in an energy function (the core of an MRF model) so that the minimization of the function gives rise to the best community structures. We analyzed the new MRF-based method on several synthetic benchmarks and real-world networks, showing its superior performance over the state-of-the-art methods for community identification.

Dimension reduction is a central problem in system engineering and data science. In scientific studies or engineering applications, one often needs to interact with unknown complex systems about which many noisy observations of system characteristics and system trajectories are available. The exact structures and dynamics of the system are typically masked by massive observations of noisy variables, many of which might not be relevant to the physical state of the system. It is often unclear how to describe the "state" of a system, when one can only access noisy observations. One may view each unique observation as a single state, however, this would generate a huge-or even infinite-dimensional process which is difficult to model or analyze. Although there exists a vast body of literatures on time series analysis [18], they typically require knowledge of specific models and might perform poorly when the models are misspecified. Anru Zhang is Assistant Professor, Department of Statistics, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, WI 53706, Email: anruzhang@stat.wisc.edu; Mengdi Wang is Assistant Professor, Department of Operations Research and Financial Engineering, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08544, Email: mengdiw@princeton.edu.