We review common methods of solving for multi-class from binary and generalize them to a common framework. Since conditional probabilties are useful both for quantifying the accuracy of an estimate and for calibration purposes, these are a required part of the solution. There is some indication that the best solution for multi-class classification is dependent on the particular dataset. As such, we are particularly interested in data-driven solution design, whether based on a priori considerations or empirical examination of the data. Numerical results indicate that while a one-size-fits-all solution consisting of one-versus-one is appropriate for most datasets, a minority will benefit from a more customized approach. The techniques discussed in this paper allow for a large variety of multi-class configurations and solution methods to be explored so as to optimize classification accuracy, accuracy of conditional probabilities and speed.

Human computer interaction facilitates intelligent communication between humans and computers, in which gesture recognition plays a prominent role. This paper proposes a machine learning system to identify dynamic gestures using tri-axial acceleration data acquired from two public datasets. These datasets, uWave and Sony, were acquired using accelerometers embedded in Wii remotes and smartwatches, respectively. A dynamic gesture signed by the user is characterized by a generic set of features extracted across time and frequency domains. The system was analyzed from an end-user perspective and was modelled to operate in three modes. The modes of operation determine the subsets of data to be used for training and testing the system. From an initial set of seven classifiers, three were chosen to evaluate each dataset across all modes rendering the system towards mode-neutrality and dataset-independence. The proposed system is able to classify gestures performed at varying speeds with minimum preprocessing, making it computationally efficient. Moreover, this system was found to run on a low-cost embedded platform - Raspberry Pi Zero (USD 5), making it economically viable.

Specialization and hierarchical organization are important features of efficient collaboration in economical, artificial, and biological systems. Here, we investigate the hypothesis that both features can be explained by the fact that each entity of such a system is limited in a certain way. We propose an information-theoretic approach based on a Free Energy principle, in order to computationally analyze systems of bounded rational agents that deal with such limitations optimally. We find that specialization allows to focus on fewer tasks, thus leading to a more efficient execution, but in turn requires coordination in hierarchical structures of specialized experts and coordinating units. Our results suggest that hierarchical architectures of specialized units at lower levels that are coordinated by units at higher levels are optimal, given that each unit's information-processing capability is limited and conforms to constraints on complexity costs.

We consider the problem of learning a binary classifier only from positive data and unlabeled data (PU learning). This problem arises in various practical situations, such as information retrieval and outlier detection (Elkan and Noto, 2008; Ward et al., 2009; Scott and Blanchard, 2009; Blanchard et al., 2010; Li et al., 2009; Nguyen et al., 2011). One of the theoretical milestones of PU learning is Elkan and Noto (2008) and there are subsequent researches called unbiased PU learning (du Plessis and Sugiyama, 2014; du Plessis et al., 2015), where the classification risk is estimated in an unbiased manner only from PU data. We consider the case-control scenario (Ward et al., 2009; Elkan and Noto, 2008), where positive data are obtained separately from unlabeled data and unlabeled data is sampled from the whole population. Under this setting, the true class-prior π p(y 1) in unlabeled data is needed for the formulation of unbiased PU learning.

The increased use of psychological and perceptual variables in travel choice survey have motivated a number of studies that investigated the explicit effects of latent behaviour in decision-making. Analysis of travel mode choice has focused on the effects of modal travel cost, time or reliability and many recent studies have attributed latent behaviour variables to account for unobservable effects Paulssen et al. [2014], Bhat et al. [2015]. The Integrated Choice and Latent Variable (ICLV) model is a recent development in structural equation modelling (SEM) to handle hybrid endogenous and exogenous variables in decision-making Ben-Akiva et al. [2002]. The ICLV model has been shown - in some situations - to produce consistent estimates of model parameters, leading to better explanatory solutions Vij and Walker [2016]. The history of structural modelling dates back to the 1970s and have been originally used in psychology, sociology and market research, and recently it has seen growing applications in travel behaviour involving latent preference "attitudinal" variables and measurement "indicators".

During the lifetime of a Business Process changes can be made to the workflow, the required resources, required documents, . . . . Different traces from the same Business Process within a single log file can thus differ substantially due to these changes. We propose a method that is able to detect concept drift in multivariate log files with a dozen attributes. We test our approach on the BPI Challenge 2018 data con- sisting of applications for EU direct payment from farmers in Germany where we use it to detect Concept Drift. In contrast to other methods our algorithm does not require the manual selection of the features used to detect drift. Our method first creates a model that captures the re- lations between attributes and between events of different time steps. This model is then used to score every event and trace. These scores can be used to detect outlying cases and concept drift. Thanks to the decomposability of the score we are able to perform detailed root-cause analysis.

Early detection of cyber-attacks is crucial for a safe and reliable operation of the smart grid. In the literature, outlier detection schemes making sample-by-sample decisions and online detection schemes requiring perfect attack models have been proposed. In this paper, we formulate the online attack/anomaly detection problem as a partially observable Markov decision process (POMDP) problem and propose a universal robust online detection algorithm using the framework of model-free reinforcement learning (RL) for POMDPs. Numerical studies illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed RL-based algorithm in timely and accurate detection of cyber-attacks targeting the smart grid. A. Background and Related W ork The next generation power grid, i.e., the smart grid, relies on advanced control and communication technologies. This critical cyber infrastructure makes the smart grid vulnerable to hostile cyber-attacks [1]-[3]. Main objective of attackers is to damage/mislead the state estimation mechanism in the smart grid to cause wide-area power blackouts or to manipulate electricity market prices [4]. There are many types of cyber-attacks, among them false data injection (FDI), jamming, and denial of service (DoS) attacks are well known. FDI attacks add malicious fake data to meter measurements [5]-[8], jamming attacks corrupt meter measurements via additive noise [9], and DoS attacks block the access of system to meter measurements [8], [10], [11]. The smart grid is a complex network and any failure or anomaly in a part of the system may lead to huge damages on the overall system in a short period of time. Hence, early detection of cyber-attacks is critical for a timely and effective response. In this context, the framework of quickest change detection [12]-[15] is quite useful. In the quickest change detection problems, a change occurs in the sensing environment at an unknown time and the aim is to detect the change as soon as possible with the minimal level of false alarms based on the measurements that become available sequentially over time. After obtaining measurements at a given time, decision maker either declares a change or waits for the next time interval to have further measurements.

Reinforcement Learning methods are capable of solving complex problems, but resulting policies might perform poorly in environments that are even slightly different. In robotics especially, training and deployment conditions often vary and data collection is expensive, making retraining undesirable. Simulation training allows for feasible training times, but on the other hand suffers from a reality-gap when applied in real-world settings. This raises the need of efficient adaptation of policies acting in new environments. We consider this as a problem of transferring knowledge within a family of similar Markov decision processes. For this purpose we assume that Q-functions are generated by some low-dimensional latent variable. Given such a Q-function, we can find a master policy that can adapt given different values of this latent variable. Our method learns both the generative mapping and an approximate posterior of the latent variables, enabling identification of policies for new tasks by searching only in the latent space, rather than the space of all policies. The low-dimensional space, and master policy found by our method enables policies to quickly adapt to new environments. We demonstrate the method on both a pendulum swing-up task in simulation, and for simulation-to-real transfer on a pushing task.

In an influential paper, Levesque proposed a formal specification for analysing the correctness of program-like plans, such as conditional plans, iterative plans, and knowledge-based plans. He motivated a logical characterisation within the situation calculus that included binary sensing actions. While the characterisation does not immediately yield a practical algorithm, the specification serves as a general skeleton to explore the synthesis of program-like plans for reasonable, tractable fragments. Increasingly, classical plan structures are being applied to stochastic environments such as robotics applications. This raises the question as to what the specification for correctness should look like, since Levesque's account makes the assumption that sensing is exact and actions are deterministic. Building on a situation calculus theory for reasoning about degrees of belief and noise, we revisit the execution semantics of generalised plans. The specification is then used to analyse the correctness of example plans.

Among the many approaches for reasoning about degrees of belief in the presence of noisy sensing and acting, the logical account proposed by Bacchus, Halpern, and Levesque is perhaps the most expressive. While their formalism is quite general, it is restricted to fluents whose values are drawn from discrete finite domains, as opposed to the continuous domains seen in many robotic applications. In this work, we show how this limitation in that approach can be lifted. By dealing seamlessly with both discrete distributions and continuous densities within a rich theory of action, we provide a very general logical specification of how belief should change after acting and sensing in complex noisy domains.