We introduce Bayesian least-squares policy iteration (BLSPI), an off-policy, model-free, policy iteration algorithm that uses the Bayesian least-squares temporal-difference (BLSTD) learning algorithm to evaluate policies. An online variant of BLSPI has been also proposed, called randomised BLSPI (RBLSPI), that improves its policy based on an incomplete policy evaluation step. In online setting, the exploration-exploitation dilemma should be addressed as we try to discover the optimal policy by using samples collected by ourselves. RBLSPI exploits the advantage of BLSTD to quantify our uncertainty about the value function. Inspired by Thompson sampling, RBLSPI first samples a value function from a posterior distribution over value functions, and then selects actions based on the sampled value function. The effectiveness and the exploration abilities of RBLSPI are demonstrated experimentally in several environments.

The regulatory process of Drosophila has been thoroughly studied for understanding a great variety of systems biology principles. While pattern-forming gene networks are further analysed in the transcription step, post-transcriptional events (e.g. translation, protein processing) play an important role in establishing protein expression patterns and levels. Since post-transcriptional regulation of gap genes in Drosophila depends on spatiotemporal interactions between mRNAs and gap proteins, proper physically-inspired stochastic models are required to study the existing link between both quantities. Previous research attempts have shown that the use of Gaussian processes (GPs) and differential equations leads to promising predictions when analysing regulatory networks. Here we aim at further investigating two types of physically-inspired GP models based on a reaction-diffusion equation where the main difference lies on whether the GP prior is placed. While one of them has been studied previously using gap protein data only, the other is novel and yields a simplistic approach requiring only the differentiation of kernel functions. In contrast to other stochastic frameworks, discretising the spatial space is not required here. Both GP models are tested under different conditions depending on the availability of gap gene mRNA expression data. Finally, their performances are assessed on a high-resolution dataset describing the blastoderm stage of the early embryo of Drosophila melanogaster.

Imitation learning is an effective alternative approach to learn a policy when the reward function is sparse. In this paper, we consider a challenging setting where an agent and an expert use different actions from each other. We assume that the agent has access to a sparse reward function and state-only expert observations. We propose a method which gradually balances between the imitation learning cost and the reinforcement learning objective. In addition, this method adapts the agent's policy based on either mimicking expert behavior or maximizing sparse reward. We show, through navigation scenarios, that (i) an agent is able to efficiently leverage sparse rewards to outperform standard state-only imitation learning, (ii) it can learn a policy even when its actions are different from the expert, and (iii) the performance of the agent is not bounded by that of the expert, due to the optimized usage of sparse rewards.

Estimating conditional dependence graphs and precision matrices are some of the most common problems in modern statistics and machine learning. When data are fully observed, penalized maximum likelihood-type estimators have become standard tools for estimating graphical models under sparsity conditions. Extensions of these methods to more complex settings where data are contaminated with additive or multiplicative noise have been developed in recent years. In these settings, however, the relative performance of different methods is not well understood and algorithmic gaps still exist. In particular, in high-dimensional settings these methods require using non-positive semidefinite matrices as inputs, presenting novel optimization challenges. We develop an alternating direction method of multipliers (ADMM) algorithm for these problems, providing a feasible algorithm to estimate precision matrices with indefinite input and potentially nonconvex penalties. We compare this method with existing alternative solutions and empirically characterize the tradeoffs between them. Finally, we use this method to explore the networks among US senators estimated from voting records data.

Attention models have had a significant positive impact on deep learning across a range of tasks. However previous attempts at integrating attention with reinforcement learning have failed to produce significant improvements. We propose the first combination of self attention and reinforcement learning that is capable of producing significant improvements, including new state of the art results in the Arcade Learning Environment. Unlike the selective attention models used in previous attempts, which constrain the attention via preconceived notions of importance, our implementation utilises the Markovian properties inherent in the state input. Our method produces a faithful visualisation of the policy, focusing on the behaviour of the agent. Our experiments demonstrate that the trained policies use multiple simultaneous foci of attention, and are able to modulate attention over time to deal with situations of partial observability.

Stochastic block models (SBMs) have been playing an important role in modeling clusters or community structures of network data. But, it is incapable of handling several complex features ubiquitously exhibited in real-world networks, one of which is the power-law degree characteristic. To this end, we propose a new variant of SBM, termed power-law degree SBM (PLD-SBM), by introducing degree decay variables to explicitly encode the varying degree distribution over all nodes. With an exponential prior, it is proved that PLD-SBM approximately preserves the scale-free feature in real networks. In addition, from the inference of variational E-Step, PLD-SBM is indeed to correct the bias inherited in SBM with the introduced degree decay factors. Furthermore, experiments conducted on both synthetic networks and two real-world datasets including Adolescent Health Data and the political blogs network verify the effectiveness of the proposed model in terms of cluster prediction accuracies.

Planning in stochastic and partially observable environments is a central issue in artificial intelligence. One commonly used technique for solving such a problem is by constructing an accurate model firstly. Although some recent approaches have been proposed for learning optimal behaviour under model uncertainty, prior knowledge about the environment is still needed to guarantee the performance of the proposed algorithms. With the benefits of the Predictive State Representations (PSRs) approach for state representation and model prediction, in this paper, we introduce an approach for planning from scratch, where an offline PSR model is firstly learned and then combined with online Monte-Carlo tree search for planning with model uncertainty. By comparing with the state-of-the-art approach of planning with model uncertainty, we demonstrated the effectiveness of the proposed approaches along with the proof of their convergence. The effectiveness and scalability of our proposed approach are also tested on the RockSample problem, which are infeasible for the state-of-the-art BA-POMDP based approaches.

Numerous networks in the real world change over time, in the sense that nodes and edges enter and leave the networks. Various dynamic random graph models have been proposed to explain the macroscopic properties of these systems and to provide a foundation for statistical inferences and predictions. It is of interest to have a rigorous way to determine how well these models match observed networks. We thus ask the following goodness of fit question: given a sequence of observations/snapshots of a growing random graph, along with a candidate model $M$, can we determine whether the snapshots came from $M$ or from some arbitrary alternative model that is well-separated from $M$ in some natural metric? We formulate this problem precisely and boil it down to goodness of fit testing for graph-valued, infinite-state Markov processes and exhibit and analyze a test based on a procedure that we call non-stationary sampling for a natural class of models.

Labeling of sequential data is a prevalent meta-problem for a wide range of real world applications. While the first-order Hidden Markov Models (HMM) provides a fundamental approach for unsupervised sequential labeling, the basic model does not show satisfying performance when it is directly applied to real world problems, such as part-of-speech tagging (PoS tagging) and optical character recognition (OCR). Aiming at improving performance, important extensions of HMM have been proposed in the literatures. One of the common key features in these extensions is the incorporation of proper prior information. In this paper, we propose a new extension of HMM, termed diversified Hidden Markov Models (dHMM), which utilizes a diversity-encouraging prior over the state-transition probabilities and thus facilitates more dynamic sequential labellings. Specifically, the diversity is modeled by a continuous determinantal point process prior, which we apply to both unsupervised and supervised scenarios. Learning and inference algorithms for dHMM are derived. Empirical evaluations on benchmark datasets for unsupervised PoS tagging and supervised OCR confirmed the effectiveness of dHMM, with competitive performance to the state-of-the-art.

Unstructured data from diverse sources, such as social media and aerial imagery, can provide valuable up-to-date information for intelligent situation assessment. Mining these different information sources could bring major benefits to applications such as situation awareness in disaster zones and mapping the spread of diseases. Such applications depend on classifying the situation across a region of interest, which can be depicted as a spatial "heatmap". Annotating unstructured data using crowdsourcing or automated classifiers produces individual classifications at sparse locations that typically contain many errors. We propose a novel Bayesian approach that models the relevance, error rates and bias of each information source, enabling us to learn a spatial Gaussian Process classifier by aggregating data from multiple sources with varying reliability and relevance. Our method does not require gold-labelled data and can make predictions at any location in an area of interest given only sparse observations. We show empirically that our approach can handle noisy and biased data sources, and that simultaneously inferring reliability and transferring information between neighbouring reports leads to more accurate predictions. We demonstrate our method on two real-world problems from disaster response, showing how our approach reduces the amount of crowdsourced data required and can be used to generate valuable heatmap visualisations from SMS messages and satellite images.