One of the most surprising and exciting discoveries in supervising learning was the benefit of overparametrization (i.e. training a very large model) to improving the optimization landscape of a problem, with minimal effect on statistical performance (i.e. generalization). In contrast, unsupervised settings have been under-explored, despite the fact that it has been observed that overparameterization can be helpful as early as Dasgupta & Schulman (2007). In this paper, we perform an exhaustive study of different aspects of overparameterization in unsupervised learning via synthetic and semi-synthetic experiments. We discuss benefits to different metrics of success (held-out log-likelihood, recovering the parameters of the ground-truth model), sensitivity to variations of the training algorithm, and behavior as the amount of overparameterization increases. We find that, when learning using methods such as variational inference, larger models can significantly increase the number of ground truth latent variables recovered.

We present a consensus Monte Carlo algorithm that scales existing Bayesian nonparametric models for clustering and feature allocation to big data. The algorithm is valid for any prior on random subsets such as partitions and latent feature allocation, under essentially any sampling model. Motivated by three case studies, we focus on clustering induced by a Dirichlet process mixture sampling model, inference under an Indian buffet process prior with a binomial sampling model, and with a categorical sampling model. We assess the proposed algorithm with simulation studies and show results for inference with three datasets: an MNIST image dataset, a dataset of pancreatic cancer mutations, and a large set of electronic health records (EHR). Supplementary materials for this article are available online.

Automata learning techniques automatically generate system models from test observations. These techniques usually fall into two categories: passive and active. Passive learning uses a predetermined data set, e.g., system logs. In contrast, active learning actively queries the system under learning, which is considered more efficient. An influential active learning technique is Angluin's L* algorithm for regular languages which inspired several generalisations from DFAs to other automata-based modelling formalisms. In this work, we study L*-based learning of deterministic Markov decision processes, first assuming an ideal setting with perfect information. Then, we relax this assumption and present a novel learning algorithm that collects information by sampling system traces via testing. Experiments with the implementation of our sampling-based algorithm suggest that it achieves better accuracy than state-of-the-art passive learning techniques with the same amount of test data. Unlike existing learning algorithms with predefined states, our algorithm learns the complete model structure including the states.

Numerous lung diseases, such as idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF), exhibit dilation of the airways. Accurate measurement of dilatation enables assessment of the progression of disease. Unfortunately the combination of image noise and airway bifurcations causes high variability in the profiles of cross-sectional areas, rendering the identification of affected regions very difficult. Here we introduce a noise-robust method for automatically detecting the location of progressive airway dilatation given two profiles of the same airway acquired at different time points. We propose a probabilistic model of abrupt relative variations between profiles and perform inference via Reversible Jump Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling. We demonstrate the efficacy of the proposed method on two datasets; (i) images of healthy airways with simulated dilatation; (ii) pairs of real images of IPF-affected airways acquired at 1 year intervals. Our model is able to detect the starting location of airway dilatation with an accuracy of 2.5mm on simulated data. The experiments on the IPF dataset display reasonable agreement with radiologists. We can compute a relative change in airway volume that may be useful for quantifying IPF disease progression.

Membership inference (MI) attacks exploit a learned model's lack of generalization to infer whether a given sample was in the model's training set. Known MI attacks generally work by casting the attacker's goal as a supervised learning problem, training an attack model from predictions generated by the target model, or by others like it. However, we find that these attacks do not often provide a meaningful basis for confidently inferring training set membership, as the attack models are not well-calibrated. Moreover, these attacks do not significantly outperform a trivial attack that predicts that a point is a member if and only if the model correctly predicts its label. In this work we present well-calibrated MI attacks that allow the attacker to accurately control the minimum confidence with which positive membership inferences are made. Our attacks take advantage of white-box information about the target model and leverage new insights about how overfitting occurs in deep neural networks; namely, we show how a model's idiosyncratic use of features can provide evidence for membership. Experiments on seven real-world datasets show that our attacks support calibration for high-confidence inferences, while outperforming previous MI attacks in terms of accuracy. Finally, we show that our attacks achieve non-trivial advantage on some models with low generalization error, including those trained with small-epsilon-differential privacy; for large-epsilon (epsilon=16, as reported in some industrial settings), the attack performs comparably to unprotected models.

We describe a limitation in the expressiveness of the predictive uncertainty estimate given by mean-field variational inference (MFVI), a popular approximate inference method for Bayesian neural networks. In particular, MFVI fails to give calibrated uncertainty estimates in between separated regions of observations. This can lead to catastrophically overconfident predictions when testing on out-of-distribution data. Avoiding such overconfidence is critical for active learning, Bayesian optimisation and out-of-distribution robustness. We instead find that a classical technique, the linearised Laplace approximation, can handle 'in-between' uncertainty much better for small network architectures.

Discovering cause-effect relationships between variables from observational data is a fundamental challenge in many scientific disciplines. However, in many situations it is desirable to directly estimate the change in causal relationships across two different conditions, e.g., estimating the change in genetic expression across healthy and diseased subjects can help isolate genetic factors behind the disease. This paper focuses on the problem of directly estimating the structural difference between two causal DAGs, having the same topological ordering, given two sets of samples drawn from the individual DAGs. We present an algorithm that can recover the difference-DAG in $O(d \log p)$ samples, where $d$ is related to the number of edges in the difference-DAG. We also show that any method requires at least $\Omega(d \log p/d)$ samples to learn difference DAGs with at most $d$ parents per node. We validate our theoretical results with synthetic experiments and show that our method out-performs the state-of-the-art.

To investigate objects without a describable notion of distance, one can gather ordinal information by asking triplet comparisons of the form "Is object $x$ closer to $y$ or is $x$ closer to $z$?" In order to learn from such data, the objects are typically embedded in a Euclidean space while satisfying as many triplet comparisons as possible. In this paper, we introduce empirical uncertainty estimates for standard embedding algorithms when few noisy triplets are available, using a bootstrap and a Bayesian approach. In particular, simulations show that these estimates are well calibrated and can serve to select embedding parameters or to quantify uncertainty in scientific applications.

Integer-valued and count data are ubiquitous in many fields, including epidemiology (Osthus et al., 2018; Kowal, 2019), ecology (Dorazio et al., 2005), and insurance (Bening and Korolev, 2012), among others (Cameron and Trivedi, 2013). Count data also serve as an indicator of demand, such as the demand for medical services (Deb and Trivedi, 1997), emergency medical services (Matteson et al., 2011), and call center access (Shen and Huang, 2008). In these applications and many others, integer-valued data are frequently observed jointly with predictors, over time intervals, or across spatial locations. Integer-valued data also exhibit a variety of distributional features, including zero-inflation, skewness, over-or underdispersion, and in some cases may be bounded or censored. Flexible and interpretable models for integervalued processes are therefore highly useful in practice. The most widely-used models for count data build upon the Poisson distribution. However, the limitations of the Poisson distribution are well-known: the distribution is not sufficiently flexible in practice and cannot account for zero-inflation or over-and underdispersion. A common strategy is to generalize the Poisson model by introducing additional parameters.

We consider the problem of learning the link parameters as well as the structure of a binary-valued pairwise Markov model. We propose a method based on $l_1$- regularized logistic regression, which estimate globally the whole set of edges and link parameters. Unlike the more recent methods discussed in literature that learn the edges and the corresponding link parameters one node at a time, in this work we propose a method that learns all the edges and corresponding link parameters simultaneously for all nodes, in a global manner. The idea behind this proposal is to exploit the reciprocal information of the nodes between each other during the estimation process. Detailed numerical experiments highlight the advantage of this technique and confirm the intuition behind it.