Learning Graphical Models
Deep Reinforcement Learning for Constrained Field Development Optimization in Subsurface Two-phase Flow
Nasir, Yusuf, He, Jincong, Hu, Chaoshun, Tanaka, Shusei, Wang, Kainan, Wen, XianHuan
We present a deep reinforcement learning-based artificial intelligence agent that could provide optimized development plans given a basic description of the reservoir and rock/fluid properties with minimal computational cost. This artificial intelligence agent, comprising of a convolutional neural network, provides a mapping from a given state of the reservoir model, constraints, and economic condition to the optimal decision (drill/do not drill and well location) to be taken in the next stage of the defined sequential field development planning process. The state of the reservoir model is defined using parameters that appear in the governing equations of the two-phase flow. A feedback loop training process referred to as deep reinforcement learning is used to train an artificial intelligence agent with such a capability. The training entails millions of flow simulations with varying reservoir model descriptions (structural, rock and fluid properties), operational constraints, and economic conditions. The parameters that define the reservoir model, operational constraints, and economic conditions are randomly sampled from a defined range of applicability. Several algorithmic treatments are introduced to enhance the training of the artificial intelligence agent. After appropriate training, the artificial intelligence agent provides an optimized field development plan instantly for new scenarios within the defined range of applicability. This approach has advantages over traditional optimization algorithms (e.g., particle swarm optimization, genetic algorithm) that are generally used to find a solution for a specific field development scenario and typically not generalizable to different scenarios.
Trusted Artificial Intelligence: Towards Certification of Machine Learning Applications
Winter, Philip Matthias, Eder, Sebastian, Weissenböck, Johannes, Schwald, Christoph, Doms, Thomas, Vogt, Tom, Hochreiter, Sepp, Nessler, Bernhard
Artificial Intelligence is one of the fastest growing technologies of the 21st century and accompanies us in our daily lives when interacting with technical applications. However, reliance on such technical systems is crucial for their widespread applicability and acceptance. The societal tools to express reliance are usually formalized by lawful regulations, i.e., standards, norms, accreditations, and certificates. Therefore, the T\"UV AUSTRIA Group in cooperation with the Institute for Machine Learning at the Johannes Kepler University Linz, proposes a certification process and an audit catalog for Machine Learning applications. We are convinced that our approach can serve as the foundation for the certification of applications that use Machine Learning and Deep Learning, the techniques that drive the current revolution in Artificial Intelligence. While certain high-risk areas, such as fully autonomous robots in workspaces shared with humans, are still some time away from certification, we aim to cover low-risk applications with our certification procedure. Our holistic approach attempts to analyze Machine Learning applications from multiple perspectives to evaluate and verify the aspects of secure software development, functional requirements, data quality, data protection, and ethics. Inspired by existing work, we introduce four criticality levels to map the criticality of a Machine Learning application regarding the impact of its decisions on people, environment, and organizations. Currently, the audit catalog can be applied to low-risk applications within the scope of supervised learning as commonly encountered in industry. Guided by field experience, scientific developments, and market demands, the audit catalog will be extended and modified accordingly.
AdaPool: A Diurnal-Adaptive Fleet Management Framework using Model-Free Deep Reinforcement Learning and Change Point Detection
Haliem, Marina, Aggarwal, Vaneet, Bhargava, Bharat
This paper introduces an adaptive model-free deep reinforcement approach that can recognize and adapt to the diurnal patterns in the ride-sharing environment with car-pooling. Deep Reinforcement Learning (RL) suffers from catastrophic forgetting due to being agnostic to the timescale of changes in the distribution of experiences. Although RL algorithms are guaranteed to converge to optimal policies in Markov decision processes (MDPs), this only holds in the presence of static environments. However, this assumption is very restrictive. In many real-world problems like ride-sharing, traffic control, etc., we are dealing with highly dynamic environments, where RL methods yield only sub-optimal decisions. To mitigate this problem in highly dynamic environments, we (1) adopt an online Dirichlet change point detection (ODCP) algorithm to detect the changes in the distribution of experiences, (2) develop a Deep Q Network (DQN) agent that is capable of recognizing diurnal patterns and making informed dispatching decisions according to the changes in the underlying environment. Rather than fixing patterns by time of week, the proposed approach automatically detects that the MDP has changed, and uses the results of the new model. In addition to the adaptation logic in dispatching, this paper also proposes a dynamic, demand-aware vehicle-passenger matching and route planning framework that dynamically generates optimal routes for each vehicle based on online demand, vehicle capacities, and locations. Evaluation on New York City Taxi public dataset shows the effectiveness of our approach in improving the fleet utilization, where less than 50% of the fleet are utilized to serve the demand of up to 90% of the requests, while maximizing profits and minimizing idle times.
Analysis and modeling to forecast in time series: a systematic review
Dama, Fatoumata, Sinoquet, Christine
This paper surveys state-of-the-art methods and models dedicated to time series analysis and modeling, with the final aim of prediction. This review aims to offer a structured and comprehensive view of the full process flow, and encompasses time series decomposition, stationary tests, modeling and forecasting. Besides, to meet didactic purposes, a unified presentation has been adopted throughout this survey, to present decomposition frameworks on the one hand and linear and nonlinear time series models on the other hand. First, we decrypt the relationships between stationarity and linearity, and further examine the main classes of methods used to test for weak stationarity. Next, the main frameworks for time series decomposition are presented in a unified way: depending on the time series, a more or less complex decomposition scheme seeks to obtain nonstationary effects (the deterministic components) and a remaining stochastic component. An appropriate modeling of the latter is a critical step to guarantee prediction accuracy. We then present three popular linear models, together with two more flexible variants of the latter. A step further in model complexity, and still in a unified way, we present five major nonlinear models used for time series. Amongst nonlinear models, artificial neural networks hold a place apart as deep learning has recently gained considerable attention. A whole section is therefore dedicated to time series forecasting relying on deep learning approaches. A final section provides a list of R and Python implementations for the methods, models and tests presented throughout this review. In this document, our intention is to bring sufficient in-depth knowledge, while covering a broad range of models and forecasting methods: this compilation spans from well-established conventional approaches to more recent adaptations of deep learning to time series forecasting.
Online Learning Probabilistic Event Calculus Theories in Answer Set Programming
Katzouris, Nikos, Artikis, Alexander, Paliouras, Georgios
Complex Event Recognition (CER) systems detect event occurrences in streaming time-stamped input using predefined event patterns. Logic-based approaches are of special interest in CER, since, via Statistical Relational AI, they combine uncertainty-resilient reasoning with time and change, with machine learning, thus alleviating the cost of manual event pattern authoring. We present a system based on Answer Set Programming (ASP), capable of probabilistic reasoning with complex event patterns in the form of weighted rules in the Event Calculus, whose structure and weights are learnt online. We compare our ASP-based implementation with a Markov Logic-based one and with a number of state-of-the-art batch learning algorithms on CER datasets for activity recognition, maritime surveillance and fleet management. Our results demonstrate the superiority of our novel approach, both in terms of efficiency and predictive performance. This paper is under consideration for publication in Theory and Practice of Logic Programming (TPLP).
Deep adaptive fuzzy clustering for evolutionary unsupervised representation learning
Tan, Dayu, Huang, Zheng, Peng, Xin, Zhong, Weimin, Mahalec, Vladimir
Cluster assignment of large and complex images is a crucial but challenging task in pattern recognition and computer vision. In this study, we explore the possibility of employing fuzzy clustering in a deep neural network framework. Thus, we present a novel evolutionary unsupervised learning representation model with iterative optimization. It implements the deep adaptive fuzzy clustering (DAFC) strategy that learns a convolutional neural network classifier from given only unlabeled data samples. DAFC consists of a deep feature quality-verifying model and a fuzzy clustering model, where deep feature representation learning loss function and embedded fuzzy clustering with the weighted adaptive entropy is implemented. We joint fuzzy clustering to the deep reconstruction model, in which fuzzy membership is utilized to represent a clear structure of deep cluster assignments and jointly optimize for the deep representation learning and clustering. Also, the joint model evaluates current clustering performance by inspecting whether the re-sampled data from estimated bottleneck space have consistent clustering properties to progressively improve the deep clustering model. Comprehensive experiments on a variety of datasets show that the proposed method obtains a substantially better performance for both reconstruction and clustering quality when compared to the other state-of-the-art deep clustering methods, as demonstrated with the in-depth analysis in the extensive experiments.
Markov Decision Processes
The Markov Decision Process (MDP) is an extension of the MRP with actions. That is, we learned that the MRP consists of states, a transition probability, and a reward function. The MDP consists of states, a transition probability, a reward function, and also actions. We learned that the Markov property states that the next state is dependent only on the current state and is not based on the previous state. Is the Markov property applicable to the RL setting?
Attention, please! A survey of Neural Attention Models in Deep Learning
Correia, Alana de Santana, Colombini, Esther Luna
In humans, Attention is a core property of all perceptual and cognitive operations. Given our limited ability to process competing sources, attention mechanisms select, modulate, and focus on the information most relevant to behavior. For decades, concepts and functions of attention have been studied in philosophy, psychology, neuroscience, and computing. For the last six years, this property has been widely explored in deep neural networks. Currently, the state-of-the-art in Deep Learning is represented by neural attention models in several application domains. This survey provides a comprehensive overview and analysis of developments in neural attention models. We systematically reviewed hundreds of architectures in the area, identifying and discussing those in which attention has shown a significant impact. We also developed and made public an automated methodology to facilitate the development of reviews in the area. By critically analyzing 650 works, we describe the primary uses of attention in convolutional, recurrent networks and generative models, identifying common subgroups of uses and applications. Furthermore, we describe the impact of attention in different application domains and their impact on neural networks' interpretability. Finally, we list possible trends and opportunities for further research, hoping that this review will provide a succinct overview of the main attentional models in the area and guide researchers in developing future approaches that will drive further improvements.
Simultaneous Navigation and Construction Benchmarking Environments
Han, Wenyu, Feng, Chen, Wu, Haoran, Gao, Alexander, Jordana, Armand, Liu, Dong, Pinto, Lerrel, Righetti, Ludovic
We need intelligent robots for mobile construction, the process of navigating in an environment and modifying its structure according to a geometric design. In this task, a major robot vision and learning challenge is how to exactly achieve the design without GPS, due to the difficulty caused by the bi-directional coupling of accurate robot localization and navigation together with strategic environment manipulation. However, many existing robot vision and learning tasks such as visual navigation and robot manipulation address only one of these two coupled aspects. To stimulate the pursuit of a generic and adaptive solution, we reasonably simplify mobile construction as a partially observable Markov decision process (POMDP) in 1/2/3D grid worlds and benchmark the performance of a handcrafted policy with basic localization and planning, and state-of-the-art deep reinforcement learning (RL) methods. Our extensive experiments show that the coupling makes this problem very challenging for those methods, and emphasize the need for novel task-specific solutions.
Probabilistic Analogical Mapping with Semantic Relation Networks
Lu, Hongjing, Ichien, Nicholas, Holyoak, Keith J.
These subprocesses are interrelated, with mapping considered to be the pivotal process (Gentner, 1983). Mapping may play a role in retrieval, as mapping a target analog to multiple potential source analogs stored in memory can help identify one or more that seems promising; and the correspondences computed by mapping support subsequent inference and schema induction. Thus, because of its centrality to analogical reasoning, the present paper focuses on the process of mapping between two analogs. We also consider the possible role that mapping may play in analog retrieval. Computational Approaches to Analogy Computational models of analogy have been developed in both artificial intelligence (AI) and cognitive science over more than half a century (for a recent review and critical analysis, see Mitchell, 2021). These models differ in many ways, both in terms of basic assumptions about the constraints that define a "good" analogy for humans, and in the detailed algorithms that accomplish analogical reasoning. For our present purposes, two broad approaches can be distinguished. The first approach, which can be termed representation matching, combines mental representations of structured knowledge about each analog with a matching process that computes some form of relational similarity, yielding a set of correspondences between the elements of the two analogs. The structured knowledge about an analog is typically assumed to approximate the content of propositions expressed in predicate calculus; e.g., the instantiated relation "hammer hits nail" might be coded as hit (hammer, nail).