Variational Bayes (VB) applied to latent Dirichlet allocation (LDA) has become the most popular algorithm for aspect modeling. While sufficiently successful in text topic extraction from large corpora, VB is less successful in identifying aspects in the presence of limited data. We present a novel variational message passing algorithm as applied to Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA) and compare it with the gold standard VB and collapsed Gibbs sampling. In situations where marginalisation leads to non-conjugate messages, we use ideas from sampling to derive approximate update equations. In cases where conjugacy holds, Loopy Belief update (LBU) (also known as Lauritzen-Spiegelhalter) is used. Our algorithm, ALBU (approximate LBU), has strong similarities with Variational Message Passing (VMP) (which is the message passing variant of VB). To compare the performance of the algorithms in the presence of limited data, we use data sets consisting of tweets and news groups. Additionally, to perform more fine grained evaluations and comparisons, we use simulations that enable comparisons with the ground truth via Kullback-Leibler divergence (KLD). Using coherence measures for the text corpora and KLD with the simulations we show that ALBU learns latent distributions more accurately than does VB, especially for smaller data sets.

The efficiency of Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) can suffer when sampling a distribution with a wide range of length scales, because the small step sizes needed for stability in high-curvature regions are inefficient elsewhere. To address this we present a delayed rejection variant: if an initial HMC trajectory is rejected, we make one or more subsequent proposals each using a step size geometrically smaller than the last. We extend the standard delayed rejection framework by allowing the probability of a retry to depend on the probability of accepting the previous proposal. We test the scheme in several sampling tasks, including multiscale model distributions such as Neal's funnel, and statistical applications. Delayed rejection enables up to five-fold performance gains over optimally-tuned HMC, as measured by effective sample size per gradient evaluation. Even for simpler distributions, delayed rejection provides increased robustness to step size misspecification. Along the way, we provide an accessible but rigorous review of detailed balance for HMC. Keywords: delayed rejection, Hamiltonian Monte Carlo, detailed balance, multiscale.

Models used for many important engineering and natural systems are imperfect. The discrepancy between the mathematical representations of a true physical system and its imperfect model is called the model error. These model errors can lead to substantial difference between the numerical solutions of the model and the observations of the system, particularly in those involving nonlinear, multi-scale phenomena. Thus, there is substantial interest in reducing model errors, particularly through understanding their physics and sources and leveraging the rapid growth of observational data. Here we introduce a framework named MEDIDA: Model Error Discovery with Interpretability and Data Assimilation. MEDIDA only requires a working numerical solver of the model and a small number of noise-free or noisy sporadic observations of the system. In MEDIDA, first the model error is estimated from differences between the observed states and model-predicted states (the latter are obtained from a number of one-time-step numerical integrations from the previous observed states). If observations are noisy, a data assimilation (DA) technique such as ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) is first used to provide a noise-free analysis state of the system, which is then used in estimating the model error. Finally, an equation-discovery technique, such as the relevance vector machine (RVM), a sparsity-promoting Bayesian method, is used to identify an interpretable, parsimonious, closed-form representation of the model error. Using the chaotic Kuramoto-Sivashinsky (KS) system as the test case, we demonstrate the excellent performance of MEDIDA in discovering different types of structural/parametric model errors, representing different types of missing physics, using noise-free and noisy observations.

We present the winning strategy of an electricity demand forecasting competition. This competition was organized to design new forecasting methods for unstable periods such as the one starting in Spring 2020. We rely on state-space models to adapt standard statistical and machine learning models. We claim that it achieves the right compromise between two extremes. On the one hand, purely time-series models such as autoregressives are adaptive in essence but fail to capture dependence to exogenous variables. On the other hand, machine learning methods allow to learn complex dependence to explanatory variables on a historical data set but fail to forecast non-stationary data accurately. The evaluation period of the competition was the occasion of trial and error and we put the focus on the final forecasting procedure. In particular, it was at the same time that a recent algorithm was designed to adapt the variances of a state-space model and we present the results of the final version only. We discuss day-today predictions nonetheless.

We introduce TyXe, a Bayesian neural network library built on top of Pytorch and Pyro. Our leading design principle is to cleanly separate architecture, prior, inference and likelihood specification, allowing for a flexible workflow where users can quickly iterate over combinations of these components. In contrast to existing packages TyXe does not implement any layer classes, and instead relies on architectures defined in generic Pytorch code. TyXe then provides modular choices for canonical priors, variational guides, inference techniques, and layer selections for a Bayesian treatment of the specified architecture. Sampling tricks for variance reduction, such as local reparameterization or flipout, are implemented as effect handlers, which can be applied independently of other specifications. We showcase the ease of use of TyXe to explore Bayesian versions of popular models from various libraries: toy regression with a pure Pytorch neural network; large-scale image classification with torchvision ResNets; graph neural networks based on DGL; and Neural Radiance Fields built on top of Pytorch3D. Finally, we provide convenient abstractions for variational continual learning. In all cases the change from a deterministic to a Bayesian neural network comes with minimal modifications to existing code, offering a broad range of researchers and practitioners alike practical access to uncertainty estimation techniques. The library is available at https://github.com/TyXe-BDL/TyXe.

An increasingly common use case for machine learning models is augmenting the abilities of human decision makers. For classification tasks where neither the human or model are perfectly accurate, a key step in obtaining high performance is combining their individual predictions in a manner that leverages their relative strengths. In this work, we develop a set of algorithms that combine the probabilistic output of a model with the class-level output of a human. We show theoretically that the accuracy of our combination model is driven not only by the individual human and model accuracies, but also by the model's confidence. Empirical results on image classification with CIFAR-10 and a subset of ImageNet demonstrate that such human-model combinations consistently have higher accuracies than the model or human alone, and that the parameters of the combination method can be estimated effectively with as few as ten labeled datapoints.

Currently, in the study of multiagent systems, the intentions of agents are usually ignored. Nonetheless, as pointed out by Theory of Mind (ToM), people regularly reason about other's mental states, including beliefs, goals, and intentions, to obtain performance advantage in competition, cooperation or coalition. However, due to its intrinsic recursion and intractable modeling of distribution over belief, integrating ToM in multiagent planning and decision making is still a challenge. In this paper, we incorporate ToM in multiagent partially observable Markov decision process (POMDP) and propose an adaptive training algorithm to develop effective collaboration between agents with ToM. We evaluate our algorithms with two games, where our algorithm surpasses all previous decentralized execution algorithms without modeling ToM.

In multi-agent reinforcement learning (MARL), it is challenging for a collection of agents to learn complex temporally extended tasks. The difficulties lie in computational complexity and how to learn the high-level ideas behind reward functions. We study the graph-based Markov Decision Process (MDP) where the dynamics of neighboring agents are coupled. We use a reward machine (RM) to encode each agent's task and expose reward function internal structures. RM has the capacity to describe high-level knowledge and encode non-Markovian reward functions. We propose a decentralized learning algorithm to tackle computational complexity, called decentralized graph-based reinforcement learning using reward machines (DGRM), that equips each agent with a localized policy, allowing agents to make decisions independently, based on the information available to the agents. DGRM uses the actor-critic structure, and we introduce the tabular Q-function for discrete state problems. We show that the dependency of Q-function on other agents decreases exponentially as the distance between them increases. Furthermore, the complexity of DGRM is related to the local information size of the largest $\kappa$-hop neighborhood, and DGRM can find an $O(\rho^{\kappa+1})$-approximation of a stationary point of the objective function. To further improve efficiency, we also propose the deep DGRM algorithm, using deep neural networks to approximate the Q-function and policy function to solve large-scale or continuous state problems. The effectiveness of the proposed DGRM algorithm is evaluated by two case studies, UAV package delivery and COVID-19 pandemic mitigation. Experimental results show that local information is sufficient for DGRM and agents can accomplish complex tasks with the help of RM. DGRM improves the global accumulated reward by 119% compared to the baseline in the case of COVID-19 pandemic mitigation.

Lookahead search has been a critical component of recent AI successes, such as in the games of chess, go, and poker. However, the search methods used in these games, and in many other settings, are tabular. Tabular search methods do not scale well with the size of the search space, and this problem is exacerbated by stochasticity and partial observability. In this work we replace tabular search with online model-based fine-tuning of a policy neural network via reinforcement learning, and show that this approach outperforms state-of-the-art search algorithms in benchmark settings. In particular, we use our search algorithm to achieve a new state-of-the-art result in self-play Hanabi, and show the generality of our algorithm by also showing that it outperforms tabular search in the Atari game Ms. Pacman.

Width-based planning has shown promising results on Atari 2600 games using pixel input, while using substantially fewer environment interactions than reinforcement learning. Recent width-based approaches have computed feature vectors for each screen using a hand designed feature set or a variational autoencoder (VAE) trained on game screens, and prune screens that do not have novel features during the search. In this paper, we explore consideration of uncertainty in features generated by a VAE during width-based planning. Our primary contribution is the introduction of active learning to maximize the utility of screens observed during planning. Experimental results demonstrate that use of active learning strategies increases gameplay scores compared to alternative width-based approaches with equal numbers of environment interactions.