While a broad range of techniques have been proposed to tackle distribution shift, the simple baseline of training on an $\textit{undersampled}$ balanced dataset often achieves close to state-of-the-art-accuracy across several popular benchmarks. This is rather surprising, since undersampling algorithms discard excess majority group data. To understand this phenomenon, we ask if learning is fundamentally constrained by a lack of minority group samples. We prove that this is indeed the case in the setting of nonparametric binary classification. Our results show that in the worst case, an algorithm cannot outperform undersampling unless there is a high degree of overlap between the train and test distributions (which is unlikely to be the case in real-world datasets), or if the algorithm leverages additional structure about the distribution shift. In particular, in the case of label shift we show that there is always an undersampling algorithm that is minimax optimal. In the case of group-covariate shift we show that there is an undersampling algorithm that is minimax optimal when the overlap between the group distributions is small. We also perform an experimental case study on a label shift dataset and find that in line with our theory, the test accuracy of robust neural network classifiers is constrained by the number of minority samples.

Generative Flow Networks or GFlowNets are related to Monte-Carlo Markov chain methods (as they sample from a distribution specified by an energy function), reinforcement learning (as they learn a policy to sample composed objects through a sequence of steps), generative models (as they learn to represent and sample from a distribution) and amortized variational methods (as they can be used to learn to approximate and sample from an otherwise intractable posterior, given a prior and a likelihood). They are trained to generate an object $x$ through a sequence of steps with probability proportional to some reward function $R(x)$ (or $\exp(-\mathcal{E}(x))$ with $\mathcal{E}(x)$ denoting the energy function), given at the end of the generative trajectory. Like for other RL settings where the reward is only given at the end, the efficiency of training and credit assignment may suffer when those trajectories are longer. With previous GFlowNet work, no learning was possible from incomplete trajectories (lacking a terminal state and the computation of the associated reward). In this paper, we consider the case where the energy function can be applied not just to terminal states but also to intermediate states. This is for example achieved when the energy function is additive, with terms available along the trajectory. We show how to reparameterize the GFlowNet state flow function to take advantage of the partial reward already accrued at each state. This enables a training objective that can be applied to update parameters even with incomplete trajectories. Even when complete trajectories are available, being able to obtain more localized credit and gradients is found to speed up training convergence, as demonstrated across many simulations.

MCMC algorithms offer empirically efficient tools for sampling from a target distribution $\pi(x) \propto \exp(-V(x))$. However, on the theory side, MCMC algorithms suffer from slow mixing rate when $\pi(x)$ is non-log-concave. Our work examines this gap and shows that when Poincar\'e-style inequality holds on a subset $\mathcal{X}$ of the state space, the conditional distribution of MCMC iterates over $\mathcal{X}$ mixes fast to the true conditional distribution. This fast mixing guarantee can hold in cases when global mixing is provably slow. We formalize the statement and quantify the conditional mixing rate. We further show that conditional mixing can have interesting implications for sampling from mixtures of Gaussians, parameter estimation for Gaussian mixture models and Gibbs-sampling with well-connected local minima.

In the field of out-of-distribution (OOD) detection, a previous method that use auxiliary data as OOD data has shown promising performance. However, the method provides an equal loss to all auxiliary data to differentiate them from inliers. However, based on our observation, in various tasks, there is a general imbalance in the distribution of the auxiliary OOD data across classes. We propose a balanced energy regularization loss that is simple but generally effective for a variety of tasks. Our balanced energy regularization loss utilizes class-wise different prior probabilities for auxiliary data to address the class imbalance in OOD data. The main concept is to regularize auxiliary samples from majority classes, more heavily than those from minority classes. Our approach performs better for OOD detection in semantic segmentation, long-tailed image classification, and image classification than the prior energy regularization loss. Furthermore, our approach achieves state-of-the-art performance in two tasks: OOD detection in semantic segmentation and long-tailed image classification. Code is available at https://github.com/hyunjunChhoi/Balanced_Energy.

HAIT requires close coordination between humans and AI teammates to work together towards a common goal [40]. Effective communication, prediction of teammates' actions, and high-level coordination are essential components of this collaborative effort. In this regard, the proactive behavior of AI-based systems and the communication thereof during collaboration is an important research topic concerning HAITs, e.g., see Horvitz et al. [8]. Proactivity can be defined as an AI's self-initiating, anticipatory behavior for contributing to effective and efficient task completion. It has been shown to be essential for human teamwork as it leads to higher job and team performance and is associated with leadership and innovation [3]. However, the design of adequate proactivity for AI-based systems to support humans is still an open question and a challenging topic. It is essential to study the impact of proactive system actions on the human-agent trust relationship and how to use information about an AI agent's perceived trustworthiness to model appropriate proactive dialog strategies for forming effective HAITs.

Structure learning is a core problem in AI central to the fields of neuro-symbolic AI and statistical relational learning. It consists in automatically learning a logical theory from data. The basis for structure learning is mining repeating patterns in the data, known as structural motifs. Finding these patterns reduces the exponential search space and therefore guides the learning of formulas. Despite the importance of motif learning, it is still not well understood. We present the first principled approach for mining structural motifs in lifted graphical models, languages that blend first-order logic with probabilistic models, which uses a stochastic process to measure the similarity of entities in the data. Our first contribution is an algorithm, which depends on two intuitive hyperparameters: one controlling the uncertainty in the entity similarity measure, and one controlling the softness of the resulting rules. Our second contribution is a preprocessing step where we perform hierarchical clustering on the data to reduce the search space to the most relevant data. Our third contribution is to introduce an O(n ln n) (in the size of the entities in the data) algorithm for clustering structurally-related data. We evaluate our approach using standard benchmarks and show that we outperform state-of-the-art structure learning approaches by up to 6% in terms of accuracy and up to 80% in terms of runtime.

Dialogue state tracking (DST) aims to convert the dialogue history into dialogue states which consist of slot-value pairs. As condensed structural information memorizing all history information, the dialogue state in the last turn is typically adopted as the input for predicting the current state by DST models. However, these models tend to keep the predicted slot values unchanged, which is defined as state momentum in this paper. Specifically, the models struggle to update slot values that need to be changed and correct wrongly predicted slot values in the last turn. To this end, we propose MoNET to tackle state momentum via noise-enhanced training. First, the previous state of each turn in the training data is noised via replacing some of its slot values. Then, the noised previous state is used as the input to learn to predict the current state, improving the model's ability to update and correct slot values. Furthermore, a contrastive context matching framework is designed to narrow the representation distance between a state and its corresponding noised variant, which reduces the impact of noised state and makes the model better understand the dialogue history. Experimental results on MultiWOZ datasets show that MoNET outperforms previous DST methods. Ablations and analysis verify the effectiveness of MoNET in alleviating state momentum and improving anti-noise ability.

The paper concerns the $d$-dimensional stochastic approximation recursion, $$ \theta_{n+1}= \theta_n + \alpha_{n + 1} f(\theta_n, \Phi_{n+1}) $$ in which $\Phi$ is a geometrically ergodic Markov chain on a general state space $\textsf{X}$ with stationary distribution $\pi$, and $f:\Re^d\times\textsf{X}\to\Re^d$. The main results are established under a version of the Donsker-Varadhan Lyapunov drift condition known as (DV3), and a stability condition for the mean flow with vector field $\bar{f}(\theta)=\textsf{E}[f(\theta,\Phi)]$, with $\Phi\sim\pi$. (i) $\{ \theta_n\}$ is convergent a.s. and in $L_4$ to the unique root $\theta^*$ of $\bar{f}(\theta)$. (ii) A functional CLT is established, as well as the usual one-dimensional CLT for the normalized error. (iii) The CLT holds for the normalized version, $z_n{=:} \sqrt{n} (\theta^{\text{PR}}_n -\theta^*)$, of the averaged parameters, $\theta^{\text{PR}}_n {=:} n^{-1} \sum_{k=1}^n\theta_k$, subject to standard assumptions on the step-size. Moreover, the normalized covariance converges, $$ \lim_{n \to \infty} n \textsf{E} [ {\widetilde{\theta}}^{\text{ PR}}_n ({\widetilde{\theta}}^{\text{ PR}}_n)^T ] = \Sigma_\theta^*,\;\;\;\textit{with $\widetilde{\theta}^{\text{ PR}}_n = \theta^{\text{ PR}}_n -\theta^*$,} $$ where $\Sigma_\theta^*$ is the minimal covariance of Polyak and Ruppert. (iv) An example is given where $f$ and $\bar{f}$ are linear in $\theta$, and the Markov chain $\Phi$ is geometrically ergodic but does not satisfy (DV3). While the algorithm is convergent, the second moment is unbounded: $ \textsf{E} [ \| \theta_n \|^2 ] \to \infty$ as $n\to\infty$.

Typical machine learning regression applications aim to report the mean or the median of the predictive probability distribution, via training with a squared or an absolute error scoring function. The importance of issuing predictions of more functionals of the predictive probability distribution (quantiles and expectiles) has been recognized as a means to quantify the uncertainty of the prediction. In deep learning (DL) applications, that is possible through quantile and expectile regression neural networks (QRNN and ERNN respectively). Here we introduce deep Huber quantile regression networks (DHQRN) that nest QRNNs and ERNNs as edge cases. DHQRN can predict Huber quantiles, which are more general functionals in the sense that they nest quantiles and expectiles as limiting cases. The main idea is to train a deep learning algorithm with the Huber quantile regression function, which is consistent for the Huber quantile functional. As a proof of concept, DHQRN are applied to predict house prices in Australia. In this context, predictive performances of three DL architectures are discussed along with evidential interpretation of results from an economic case study.

Predicting sets of outcomes -- instead of unique outcomes -- is a promising solution to uncertainty quantification in statistical learning. Despite a rich literature on constructing prediction sets with statistical guarantees, adapting to unknown covariate shift -- a prevalent issue in practice -- poses a serious unsolved challenge. In this paper, we show that prediction sets with finite-sample coverage guarantee are uninformative and propose a novel flexible distribution-free method, PredSet-1Step, to efficiently construct prediction sets with an asymptotic coverage guarantee under unknown covariate shift. We formally show that our method is \textit{asymptotically probably approximately correct}, having well-calibrated coverage error with high confidence for large samples. We illustrate that it achieves nominal coverage in a number of experiments and a data set concerning HIV risk prediction in a South African cohort study. Our theory hinges on a new bound for the convergence rate of the coverage of Wald confidence intervals based on general asymptotically linear estimators.