The practical utility of causality in decision-making is widespread and brought about by the intertwining of causal discovery and causal inference. Nevertheless, a notable gap exists in the evaluation of causal discovery methods, where insufficient emphasis is placed on downstream inference. To address this gap, we evaluate seven established baseline causal discovery methods including a newly proposed method based on GFlowNets, on the downstream task of treatment effect estimation. Through the implementation of a distribution-level evaluation, we offer valuable and unique insights into the efficacy of these causal discovery methods for treatment effect estimation, considering both synthetic and real-world scenarios, as well as low-data scenarios. The results of our study demonstrate that some of the algorithms studied are able to effectively capture a wide range of useful and diverse ATE modes, while some tend to learn many low-probability modes which impacts the (unrelaxed) recall and precision.

Non-intrusive load monitoring (NILM) identifies the status and power consumption of various household appliances by disaggregating the total power usage signal of an entire house. Efficient and accurate load monitoring facilitates user profile establishment, intelligent household energy management, and peak load shifting. This is beneficial for both the end-users and utilities by improving the overall efficiency of a power distribution network. Existing approaches mainly focus on developing an individual model for each appliance. Those approaches typically rely on a large amount of household-labeled data which is hard to collect. In this paper, we propose a multi-appliance-task framework with a training-efficient sample augmentation (SA) scheme that boosts the disaggregation performance with limited labeled data. For each appliance, we develop a shared-hierarchical split structure for its regression and classification tasks. In addition, we also propose a two-dimensional attention mechanism in order to capture spatio-temporal correlations among all appliances. With only one-day training data and limited appliance operation profiles, the proposed SA algorithm can achieve comparable test performance to the case of training with the full dataset. Finally, simulation results show that our proposed approach features a significantly improved performance over many baseline models. The relative errors can be reduced by more than 50% on average. The codes of this work are available at https://github.com/jxiong22/MATNilm

We consider the problem of learning a set of direct causes of a target variable from an observational joint distribution. Learning directed acyclic graphs (DAGs) that represent the causal structure is a fundamental problem in science. Several results are known when the full DAG is identifiable from the distribution, such as assuming a nonlinear Gaussian data-generating process. Often, we are only interested in identifying the direct causes of one target variable (local causal structure), not the full DAG. In this paper, we discuss different assumptions for the data-generating process of the target variable under which the set of direct causes is identifiable from the distribution. While doing so, we put essentially no assumptions on the variables other than the target variable. In addition to the novel identifiability results, we provide two practical algorithms for estimating the direct causes from a finite random sample and demonstrate their effectiveness on several benchmark datasets. We apply this framework to learn direct causes of the reduction in fertility rates in different countries.

Autonomous driving technology is poised to transform transportation systems. However, achieving safe and accurate multi-task decision-making in complex scenarios, such as unsignalized intersections, remains a challenge for autonomous vehicles. This paper presents a novel approach to this issue with the development of a Multi-Task Decision-Making Generative Pre-trained Transformer (MTD-GPT) model. Leveraging the inherent strengths of reinforcement learning (RL) and the sophisticated sequence modeling capabilities of the Generative Pre-trained Transformer (GPT), the MTD-GPT model is designed to simultaneously manage multiple driving tasks, such as left turns, straight-ahead driving, and right turns at unsignalized intersections. We initially train a single-task RL expert model, sample expert data in the environment, and subsequently utilize a mixed multi-task dataset for offline GPT training. This approach abstracts the multi-task decision-making problem in autonomous driving as a sequence modeling task. The MTD-GPT model is trained and evaluated across several decision-making tasks, demonstrating performance that is either superior or comparable to that of state-of-the-art single-task decision-making models.

Reinforcement learning has been greatly improved in recent studies and an increased interest in real-world implementation has emerged in recent years. In many cases, due to the non-static disturbances, it becomes challenging for the agent to keep the performance. The disturbance results in the environment called Partially Observable Markov Decision Process. In common practice, Partially Observable Markov Decision Process is handled by introducing an additional estimator, or Recurrent Neural Network is utilized in the context of reinforcement learning. Both of the cases require to process sequential information on the trajectory. However, there are only a few studies investigating the effect of information to consider and the network structure to handle them. This study shows the benefit of action sequence inclusion in order to solve Partially Observable Markov Decision Process. Several structures and approaches are proposed to extend one of the latest deep reinforcement learning algorithms with LSTM networks. The developed algorithms showed enhanced robustness of controller performance against different types of external disturbances that are added to observation.

We propose an automata-theoretic approach for reinforcement learning (RL) under complex spatio-temporal constraints with time windows. The problem is formulated using a Markov decision process under a bounded temporal logic constraint. Different from existing RL methods that can eventually learn optimal policies satisfying such constraints, our proposed approach enforces a desired probability of constraint satisfaction throughout learning. This is achieved by translating the bounded temporal logic constraint into a total automaton and avoiding "unsafe" actions based on the available prior information regarding the transition probabilities, i.e., a pair of upper and lower bounds for each transition probability. We provide theoretical guarantees on the resulting probability of constraint satisfaction. We also provide numerical results in a scenario where a robot explores the environment to discover high-reward regions while fulfilling some periodic pick-up and delivery tasks that are encoded as temporal logic constraints.

Over the past decades, hemodynamics simulators have steadily evolved and have become tools of choice for studying cardiovascular systems in-silico. While such tools are routinely used to simulate whole-body hemodynamics from physiological parameters, solving the corresponding inverse problem of mapping waveforms back to plausible physiological parameters remains both promising and challenging. Motivated by advances in simulation-based inference (SBI), we cast this inverse problem as statistical inference. In contrast to alternative approaches, SBI provides \textit{posterior distributions} for the parameters of interest, providing a \textit{multi-dimensional} representation of uncertainty for \textit{individual} measurements. We showcase this ability by performing an in-silico uncertainty analysis of five biomarkers of clinical interest comparing several measurement modalities. Beyond the corroboration of known facts, such as the feasibility of estimating heart rate, our study highlights the potential of estimating new biomarkers from standard-of-care measurements. SBI reveals practically relevant findings that cannot be captured by standard sensitivity analyses, such as the existence of sub-populations for which parameter estimation exhibits distinct uncertainty regimes. Finally, we study the gap between in-vivo and in-silico with the MIMIC-III waveform database and critically discuss how cardiovascular simulations can inform real-world data analysis.

Proximal nested sampling was introduced recently to open up Bayesian model selection for high-dimensional problems such as computational imaging. The framework is suitable for models with a log-convex likelihood, which are ubiquitous in the imaging sciences. The purpose of this article is two-fold. First, we review proximal nested sampling in a pedagogical manner in an attempt to elucidate the framework for physical scientists. Second, we show how proximal nested sampling can be extended in an empirical Bayes setting to support data-driven priors, such as deep neural networks learned from training data.

Recent advances of powerful Language Models have allowed Natural Language Generation (NLG) to emerge as an important technology that can not only perform traditional tasks like summarisation or translation, but also serve as a natural language interface to a variety of applications. As such, it is crucial that NLG systems are trustworthy and reliable, for example by indicating when they are likely to be wrong; and supporting multiple views, backgrounds and writing styles -- reflecting diverse human sub-populations. In this paper, we argue that a principled treatment of uncertainty can assist in creating systems and evaluation protocols better aligned with these goals. We first present the fundamental theory, frameworks and vocabulary required to represent uncertainty. We then characterise the main sources of uncertainty in NLG from a linguistic perspective, and propose a two-dimensional taxonomy that is more informative and faithful than the popular aleatoric/epistemic dichotomy. Finally, we move from theory to applications and highlight exciting research directions that exploit uncertainty to power decoding, controllable generation, self-assessment, selective answering, active learning and more.

Information technology (IT) systems are vital for modern businesses, handling data storage, communication, and process automation. Monitoring these systems is crucial for their proper functioning and efficiency, as it allows collecting extensive observational time series data for analysis. The interest in causal discovery is growing in IT monitoring systems as knowing causal relations between different components of the IT system helps in reducing downtime, enhancing system performance and identifying root causes of anomalies and incidents. It also allows proactive prediction of future issues through historical data analysis. Despite its potential benefits, applying causal discovery algorithms on IT monitoring data poses challenges, due to the complexity of the data. For instance, IT monitoring data often contains misaligned time series, sleeping time series, timestamp errors and missing values. This paper presents case studies on applying causal discovery algorithms to different IT monitoring datasets, highlighting benefits and ongoing challenges.