Predicting traffic incident risks at granular spatiotemporal levels is challenging. The datasets predominantly feature zero values, indicating no incidents, with sporadic high-risk values for severe incidents. Notably, a majority of current models, especially deep learning methods, focus solely on estimating risk values, overlooking the uncertainties arising from the inherently unpredictable nature of incidents. To tackle this challenge, we introduce the Spatiotemporal Zero-Inflated Tweedie Graph Neural Networks (STZITD-GNNs). Our model merges the reliability of traditional statistical models with the flexibility of graph neural networks, aiming to precisely quantify uncertainties associated with road-level traffic incident risks. This model strategically employs a compound model from the Tweedie family, as a Poisson distribution to model risk frequency and a Gamma distribution to account for incident severity. Furthermore, a zero-inflated component helps to identify the non-incident risk scenarios. As a result, the STZITD-GNNs effectively capture the dataset's skewed distribution, placing emphasis on infrequent but impactful severe incidents. Empirical tests using real-world traffic data from London, UK, demonstrate that our model excels beyond current benchmarks. The forte of STZITD-GNN resides not only in its accuracy but also in its adeptness at curtailing uncertainties, delivering robust predictions over short (7 days) and extended (14 days) timeframes.

Well-calibrated probabilistic regression models are a crucial learning component in robotics applications as datasets grow rapidly and tasks become more complex. Unfortunately, classical regression models are usually either probabilistic kernel machines with a flexible structure that does not scale gracefully with data or deterministic and vastly scalable automata, albeit with a restrictive parametric form and poor regularization. In this paper, we consider a probabilistic hierarchical modeling paradigm that combines the benefits of both worlds to deliver computationally efficient representations with inherent complexity regularization. The presented approaches are probabilistic interpretations of local regression techniques that approximate nonlinear functions through a set of local linear or polynomial units. Importantly, we rely on principles from Bayesian nonparametrics to formulate flexible models that adapt their complexity to the data and can potentially encompass an infinite number of components. We derive two efficient variational inference techniques to learn these representations and highlight the advantages of hierarchical infinite local regression models, such as dealing with non-smooth functions, mitigating catastrophic forgetting, and enabling parameter sharing and fast predictions. Finally, we validate this approach on large inverse dynamics datasets and test the learned models in real-world control scenarios.

Bayesian probabilistic numerical methods for numerical integration offer significant advantages over their non-Bayesian counterparts: they can encode prior information about the integrand, and can quantify uncertainty over estimates of an integral. However, the most popular algorithm in this class, Bayesian quadrature, is based on Gaussian process models and is therefore associated with a high computational cost. To improve scalability, we propose an alternative approach based on Bayesian neural networks which we call Bayesian Stein networks. The key ingredients are a neural network architecture based on Stein operators, and an approximation of the Bayesian posterior based on the Laplace approximation. We show that this leads to orders of magnitude speed-ups on the popular Genz functions benchmark, and on challenging problems arising in the Bayesian analysis of dynamical systems, and the prediction of energy production for a large-scale wind farm.

We consider the problem of performing Bayesian inference for logistic regression using appropriate extensions of the ensemble Kalman filter. Two interacting particle systems are proposed that sample from an approximate posterior and prove quantitative convergence rates of these interacting particle systems to their mean-field limit as the number of particles tends to infinity. Furthermore, we apply these techniques and examine their effectiveness as methods of Bayesian approximation for quantifying predictive uncertainty in ReLU networks.

Quantum-inspired Machine Learning (QiML) is a burgeoning field, receiving global attention from researchers for its potential to leverage principles of quantum mechanics within classical computational frameworks. However, current review literature often presents a superficial exploration of QiML, focusing instead on the broader Quantum Machine Learning (QML) field. In response to this gap, this survey provides an integrated and comprehensive examination of QiML, exploring QiML's diverse research domains including tensor network simulations, dequantized algorithms, and others, showcasing recent advancements, practical applications, and illuminating potential future research avenues. Further, a concrete definition of QiML is established by analyzing various prior interpretations of the term and their inherent ambiguities. As QiML continues to evolve, we anticipate a wealth of future developments drawing from quantum mechanics, quantum computing, and classical machine learning, enriching the field further. This survey serves as a guide for researchers and practitioners alike, providing a holistic understanding of QiML's current landscape and future directions.

Normalizing Flows (NFs) describe a class of models that express a complex target distribution as the composition of a series of bijective transformations over a simpler base distribution. By limiting the space of candidate transformations to diffeomorphisms, NFs enjoy efficient, exact sampling and density evaluation, enabling NFs to flexibly behave as both discriminative and generative models. Their restriction to diffeomorphisms, however, enforces that input, output and all intermediary spaces share the same dimension, limiting their ability to effectively represent target distributions with complex topologies (Zhang and Chen 2021). Additionally, in cases where the prior and target distributions are not homeomorphic, Normalizing Flows can leak mass outside of the support of the target (Cornish et al. 2019; Wu et al. 2020). This survey covers a selection of recent works that combine aspects of other generative model classes, such as VAEs and diffusion, and in doing so loosen the strict bijectivity constraints of NFs to achieve a balance of expressivity, training speed, sample efficiency and likelihood tractability.

Monitoring drivers' mental workload facilitates initiating and maintaining safe interactions with in-vehicle information systems, and thus delivers adaptive human machine interaction with reduced impact on the primary task of driving. In this paper, we tackle the problem of workload estimation from driving performance data. First, we present a novel on-road study for collecting subjective workload data via a modified peripheral detection task in naturalistic settings. Key environmental factors that induce a high mental workload are identified via video analysis, e.g. junctions and behaviour of vehicle in front. Second, a supervised learning framework using state-of-the-art time series classifiers (e.g. convolutional neural network and transform techniques) is introduced to profile drivers based on the average workload they experience during a journey. A Bayesian filtering approach is then proposed for sequentially estimating, in (near) real-time, the driver's instantaneous workload. This computationally efficient and flexible method can be easily personalised to a driver (e.g. incorporate their inferred average workload profile), adapted to driving/environmental contexts (e.g. road type) and extended with data streams from new sources. The efficacy of the presented profiling and instantaneous workload estimation approaches are demonstrated using the on-road study data, showing $F_{1}$ scores of up to 92% and 81%, respectively.

Control barrier functions (CBFs) enable guaranteed safe multi-agent navigation in the continuous domain. The resulting navigation performance, however, is highly sensitive to the underlying hyperparameters. Traditional approaches consider fixed CBFs (where parameters are tuned apriori), and hence, typically do not perform well in cluttered and highly dynamic environments: conservative parameter values can lead to inefficient agent trajectories, or even failure to reach goal positions, whereas aggressive parameter values can lead to infeasible controls. To overcome these issues, in this paper, we propose online CBFs, whereby hyperparameters are tuned in real-time, as a function of what agents perceive in their immediate neighborhood. Since the explicit relationship between CBFs and navigation performance is hard to model, we leverage reinforcement learning to learn CBF-tuning policies in a model-free manner. Because we parameterize the policies with graph neural networks (GNNs), we are able to synthesize decentralized agent controllers that adjust parameter values locally, varying the degree of conservative and aggressive behaviors across agents. Simulations as well as real-world experiments show that (i) online CBFs are capable of solving navigation scenarios that are infeasible for fixed CBFs, and (ii), that they improve navigation performance by adapting to other agents and changes in the environment.

The advances in variational inference are providing promising paths in Bayesian estimation problems. These advances make variational phylogenetic inference an alternative approach to Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods for approximating the phylogenetic posterior. However, one of the main drawbacks of such approaches is modelling the prior through fixed distributions, which could bias the posterior approximation if they are distant from the current data distribution. In this paper, we propose an approach and an implementation framework to relax the rigidity of the prior densities by learning their parameters using a gradient-based method and a neural network-based parameterization. We applied this approach for branch lengths and evolutionary parameters estimation under several Markov chain substitution models. The results of performed simulations show that the approach is powerful in estimating branch lengths and evolutionary model parameters. They also show that a flexible prior model could provide better results than a predefined prior model. Finally, the results highlight that using neural networks improves the initialization of the optimization of the prior density parameters.

This paper explores deep latent variable models for semi-supervised paraphrase generation, where the missing target pair for unlabelled data is modelled as a latent paraphrase sequence. We present a novel unsupervised model named variational sequence auto-encoding reconstruction (VSAR), which performs latent sequence inference given an observed text. To leverage information from text pairs, we additionally introduce a novel supervised model we call dual directional learning (DDL), which is designed to integrate with our proposed VSAR model. Combining VSAR with DDL (DDL+VSAR) enables us to conduct semi-supervised learning. Still, the combined model suffers from a cold-start problem. To further combat this issue, we propose an improved weight initialisation solution, leading to a novel two-stage training scheme we call knowledge-reinforced-learning (KRL). Our empirical evaluations suggest that the combined model yields competitive performance against the state-of-the-art supervised baselines on complete data. Furthermore, in scenarios where only a fraction of the labelled pairs are available, our combined model consistently outperforms the strong supervised model baseline (DDL) by a significant margin (p <.05; Wilcoxon test). Our code is publicly available at "https://github.com/jialin-yu/latent-sequence-paraphrase".