In this paper, we introduce Multi-Objective Deep Centralized Multi-Agent Actor-Critic (MO- DCMAC), a multi-objective reinforcement learning (MORL) method for infrastructural maintenance optimization, an area traditionally dominated by single-objective reinforcement learning (RL) approaches. Previous single-objective RL methods combine multiple objectives, such as probability of collapse and cost, into a singular reward signal through reward-shaping. In contrast, MO-DCMAC can optimize a policy for multiple objectives directly, even when the utility function is non-linear. We evaluated MO-DCMAC using two utility functions, which use probability of collapse and cost as input. The first utility function is the Threshold utility, in which MO-DCMAC should minimize cost so that the probability of collapse is never above the threshold. The second is based on the Failure Mode, Effects, and Criticality Analysis (FMECA) methodology used by asset managers to asses maintenance plans. We evaluated MO-DCMAC, with both utility functions, in multiple maintenance environments, including ones based on a case study of the historical quay walls of Amsterdam. The performance of MO-DCMAC was compared against multiple rule-based policies based on heuristics currently used for constructing maintenance plans. Our results demonstrate that MO-DCMAC outperforms traditional rule-based policies across various environments and utility functions.

The aim in many sciences is to understand the mechanisms that underlie the observed distribution of variables, starting from a set of initial hypotheses. Causal discovery allows us to infer mechanisms as sets of cause and effect relationships in a generalized way -- without necessarily tailoring to a specific domain. Causal discovery algorithms search over a structured hypothesis space, defined by the set of directed acyclic graphs, to find the graph that best explains the data. For high-dimensional problems, however, this search becomes intractable and scalable algorithms for causal discovery are needed to bridge the gap. In this paper, we define a novel causal graph partition that allows for divide-and-conquer causal discovery with theoretical guarantees. We leverage the idea of a superstructure -- a set of learned or existing candidate hypotheses -- to partition the search space. We prove under certain assumptions that learning with a causal graph partition always yields the Markov Equivalence Class of the true causal graph. We show our algorithm achieves comparable accuracy and a faster time to solution for biologically-tuned synthetic networks and networks up to ${10^4}$ variables. This makes our method applicable to gene regulatory network inference and other domains with high-dimensional structured hypothesis spaces.

Quantized neural networks are well known for reducing the latency, power consumption, and model size without significant harm to the performance. This makes them highly appropriate for systems with limited resources and low power capacity. Mixed-precision quantization offers better utilization of customized hardware that supports arithmetic operations at different bitwidths. Quantization methods either aim to minimize the compression loss given a desired reduction or optimize a dependent variable for a specified property of the model (such as FLOPs or model size); both make the performance inefficient when deployed on specific hardware, but more importantly, quantization methods assume that the loss manifold holds a global minimum for a quantized model that copes with the global minimum of the full precision counterpart. Challenging this assumption, we argue that the optimal minimum changes as the precision changes, and thus, it is better to look at quantization as a random process, placing the foundation for a different approach to quantize neural networks, which, during the training procedure, quantizes the model to a different precision, looks at the bit allocation as a Markov Decision Process, and then, finds an optimal bitwidth allocation for measuring specified behaviors on a specific device via direct signals from the particular hardware architecture. By doing so, we avoid the basic assumption that the loss behaves the same way for a quantized model. Automatic Mixed-Precision Quantization for Edge Devices (dubbed AMED) demonstrates its superiority over current state-of-the-art schemes in terms of the trade-off between neural network accuracy and hardware efficiency, backed by a comprehensive evaluation.

Markov jump processes are continuous-time stochastic processes which describe dynamical systems evolving in discrete state spaces. These processes find wide application in the natural sciences and machine learning, but their inference is known to be far from trivial. In this work we introduce a methodology for zeroshot inference of Markov jump processes (MJPs), on bounded state spaces, from noisy and sparse observations, which consists of two components. First, a broad probability distribution over families of MJPs, as well as over possible observation times and noise mechanisms, with which we simulate a synthetic dataset of hidden MJPs and their noisy observation process. Second, a neural network model that processes subsets of the simulated observations, and that is trained to output the initial condition and rate matrix of the target MJP in a supervised way. We empirically demonstrate that one and the same (pretrained) model can infer, in a zero-shot fashion, hidden MJPs evolving in state spaces of different dimensionalities. Specifically, we infer MJPs which describe (i) discrete flashing ratchet systems, which are a type of Brownian motors, and the conformational dynamics in (ii) molecular simulations, (iii) experimental ion channel data and (iv) simple protein folding models. What is more, we show that our model performs on par with state-of-the-art models which are finetuned to the target datasets. Our pretrained model is available online.

Latent variable models serve as powerful tools to infer underlying dynamics from observed neural activity. However, due to the absence of ground truth data, prediction benchmarks are often employed as proxies. In this study, we reveal the limitations of the widely-used 'co-smoothing' prediction framework and propose an improved few-shot prediction approach that encourages more accurate latent dynamics. Utilizing a student-teacher setup with Hidden Markov Models, we demonstrate that the high co-smoothing model space can encompass models with arbitrary extraneous dynamics within their latent representations. To address this, we introduce a secondary metric -- a few-shot version of co-smoothing. This involves performing regression from the latent variables to held-out channels in the data using fewer trials. Our results indicate that among models with near-optimal co-smoothing, those with extraneous dynamics underperform in the few-shot co-smoothing compared to 'minimal' models devoid of such dynamics. We also provide analytical insights into the origin of this phenomenon. We further validate our findings on real neural data using two state-of-the-art methods: LFADS and STNDT. In the absence of ground truth, we suggest a proxy measure to quantify extraneous dynamics. By cross-decoding the latent variables of all model pairs with high co-smoothing, we identify models with minimal extraneous dynamics. We find a correlation between few-shot co-smoothing performance and this new measure. In summary, we present a novel prediction metric designed to yield latent variables that more accurately reflect the ground truth, offering a significant improvement for latent dynamics inference.

For causal discovery in the presence of latent confounders, constraints beyond conditional independences exist that can enable causal discovery algorithms to distinguish more pairs of graphs. Such constraints are not well-understood yet. In the setting of linear structural equation models without bows, we study algebraic constraints and argue that these provide the most fine-grained resolution achievable. We propose efficient algorithms that decide whether two graphs impose the same algebraic constraints, or whether the constraints imposed by one graph are a subset of those imposed by another graph.

We present a fully probabilistic approach for solving binary optimization problems with black-box objective functions and with budget constraints. In the probabilistic approach, the optimization variable is viewed as a random variable and is associated with a parametric probability distribution. The original optimization problem is replaced with an optimization over the expected value of the original objective, which is then optimized over the probability distribution parameters. The resulting optimal parameter (optimal policy) is used to sample the binary space to produce estimates of the optimal solution(s) of the original binary optimization problem. The probability distribution is chosen from the family of Bernoulli models because the optimization variable is binary. The optimization constraints generally restrict the feasibility region. This can be achieved by modeling the random variable with a conditional distribution given satisfiability of the constraints. Thus, in this work we develop conditional Bernoulli distributions to model the random variable conditioned by the total number of nonzero entries, that is, the budget constraint. This approach (a) is generally applicable to binary optimization problems with nonstochastic black-box objective functions and budget constraints; (b) accounts for budget constraints by employing conditional probabilities that sample only the feasible region and thus considerably reduces the computational cost compared with employing soft constraints; and (c) does not employ soft constraints and thus does not require tuning of a regularization parameter, for example to promote sparsity, which is challenging in sensor placement optimization problems. The proposed approach is verified numerically by using an idealized bilinear binary optimization problem and is validated by using a sensor placement experiment in a parameter identification setup.

We present a theoretical analysis of the Elo rating system, a popular method for ranking skills of players in an online setting. In particular, we study Elo under the Bradley--Terry--Luce model and, using techniques from Markov chain theory, show that Elo learns the model parameters at a rate competitive with the state of the art. We apply our results to the problem of efficient tournament design and discuss a connection with the fastest-mixing Markov chain problem.

Mixing (or prior) density estimation is an important problem in machine learning and statistics, especially in empirical Bayes $g$-modeling where accurately estimating the prior is necessary for making good posterior inferences. In this paper, we propose neural-$g$, a new neural network-based estimator for $g$-modeling. Neural-$g$ uses a softmax output layer to ensure that the estimated prior is a valid probability density. Under default hyperparameters, we show that neural-$g$ is very flexible and capable of capturing many unknown densities, including those with flat regions, heavy tails, and/or discontinuities. In contrast, existing methods struggle to capture all of these prior shapes. We provide justification for neural-$g$ by establishing a new universal approximation theorem regarding the capability of neural networks to learn arbitrary probability mass functions. To accelerate convergence of our numerical implementation, we utilize a weighted average gradient descent approach to update the network parameters. Finally, we extend neural-$g$ to multivariate prior density estimation. We illustrate the efficacy of our approach through simulations and analyses of real datasets. A software package to implement neural-$g$ is publicly available at https://github.com/shijiew97/neuralG.

Risk averse decision making under uncertainty in partially observable domains is a fundamental problem in AI and essential for reliable autonomous agents. In our case, the problem is modeled using partially observable Markov decision processes (POMDPs), when the value function is the conditional value at risk (CVaR) of the return. Calculating an optimal solution for POMDPs is computationally intractable in general. In this work we develop a simplification framework to speedup the evaluation of the value function, while providing performance guarantees. We consider as simplification a computationally cheaper belief-MDP transition model, that can correspond, e.g., to cheaper observation or transition models. Our contributions include general bounds for CVaR that allow bounding the CVaR of a random variable X, using a random variable Y, by assuming bounds between their cumulative distributions. We then derive bounds for the CVaR value function in a POMDP setting, and show how to bound the value function using the computationally cheaper belief-MDP transition model and without accessing the computationally expensive model in real-time. Then, we provide theoretical performance guarantees for the estimated bounds. Our results apply for a general simplification of a belief-MDP transition model and support simplification of both the observation and state transition models simultaneously.