Mixture of experts is a prediction aggregation method in machine learning that aggregates the predictions of specialized experts. This method often outperforms Bayesian methods despite the Bayesian having stronger inductive guarantees. We argue that this is due to the greater functional capacity of mixture of experts. We prove that in a limiting case of mixture of experts will have greater capacity than equivalent Bayesian methods, which we vouchsafe through experiments on non-limiting cases. Finally, we conclude that mixture of experts is a type of abductive reasoning in the Peircian sense of hypothesis construction.

Reliable uncertainty estimation plays a crucial role in various safety-critical applications such as medical diagnosis and autonomous driving. In recent years, Bayesian neural networks (BayesNNs) have gained substantial research and industrial interests due to their capability to make accurate predictions with reliable uncertainty estimation. However, the algorithmic complexity and the resulting hardware performance of BayesNNs hinder their adoption in real-life applications. To bridge this gap, this paper proposes an algorithm and hardware co-design framework that can generate field-programmable gate array (FPGA)-based accelerators for efficient BayesNNs. At the algorithm level, we propose novel multi-exit dropout-based BayesNNs with reduced computational and memory overheads while achieving high accuracy and quality of uncertainty estimation. At the hardware level, this paper introduces a transformation framework that can generate FPGA-based accelerators for the proposed efficient multi-exit BayesNNs. Several optimization techniques such as the mix of spatial and temporal mappings are introduced to reduce resource consumption and improve the overall hardware performance. Comprehensive experiments demonstrate that our approach can achieve higher energy efficiency compared to CPU, GPU, and other state-of-the-art hardware implementations. To support the future development of this research, we have open-sourced our code at: https://github.com/os-hxfan/MCME_FPGA_Acc.git

Score distillation sampling has been pivotal for integrating diffusion models into generation of complex visuals. Despite impressive results it suffers from mode collapse and lack of diversity. To cope with this challenge, we leverage the gradient flow interpretation of score distillation to propose Repulsive Score Distillation (RSD). In particular, we propose a variational framework based on repulsion of an ensemble of particles that promotes diversity. Using a variational approximation that incorporates a coupling among particles, the repulsion appears as a simple regularization that allows interaction of particles based on their relative pairwise similarity, measured e.g., via radial basis kernels. We design RSD for both unconstrained and constrained sampling scenarios. For constrained sampling we focus on inverse problems in the latent space that leads to an augmented variational formulation, that strikes a good balance between compute, quality and diversity. Our extensive experiments for text-to-image generation, and inverse problems demonstrate that RSD achieves a superior trade-off between diversity and quality compared with state-of-the-art alternatives.

We present Reinforcement Learning via Auxiliary Task Distillation (AuxDistill), a new method that enables reinforcement learning (RL) to perform long-horizon robot control problems by distilling behaviors from auxiliary RL tasks. AuxDistill achieves this by concurrently carrying out multi-task RL with auxiliary tasks, which are easier to learn and relevant to the main task. A weighted distillation loss transfers behaviors from these auxiliary tasks to solve the main task. We demonstrate that AuxDistill can learn a pixels-to-actions policy for a challenging multi-stage embodied object rearrangement task from the environment reward without demonstrations, a learning curriculum, or pre-trained skills. AuxDistill achieves $2.3 \times$ higher success than the previous state-of-the-art baseline in the Habitat Object Rearrangement benchmark and outperforms methods that use pre-trained skills and expert demonstrations.

Despite the high diagnostic accuracy of Magnetic Resonance Imaging (MRI), using MRI as a Point-of-Care (POC) disease identification tool poses significant accessibility challenges due to the use of high magnetic field strength and lengthy acquisition times. We ask a simple question: Can we dynamically optimise acquired samples, at the patient level, according to an (automated) downstream decision task, while discounting image reconstruction? We propose an ML-based framework that learns an active sampling strategy, via reinforcement learning, at a patient-level to directly infer disease from undersampled k-space. We validate our approach by inferring Meniscus Tear in undersampled knee MRI data, where we achieve diagnostic performance comparable with ML-based diagnosis, using fully sampled k-space data. We analyse task-specific sampling policies, showcasing the adaptability of our active sampling approach. The introduced frugal sampling strategies have the potential to reduce high field strength requirements that in turn strengthen the viability of MRI-based POC disease identification and associated preliminary screening tools.

Understanding the complex relationships of biomarkers in diabetes is pivotal for advancing treatment strategies, a pressing need in diabetes research. This study applies Bayesian network structure learning to analyze the Shanghai Type 1 and Type 2 diabetes mellitus datasets, revealing complex relationships among key diabetes-related biomarkers. The constructed Bayesian network presented notable predictive accuracy, particularly for Type 2 diabetes mellitus, with root mean squared error (RMSE) of 18.23 mg/dL, as validated through leave-one-domain experiments and Clarke error grid analysis. This study not only elucidates the intricate dynamics of diabetes through a deeper understanding of biomarker interplay but also underscores the significant potential of integrating data-driven and knowledge-driven methodologies in the realm of personalized diabetes management. Such an approach paves the way for more custom and effective treatment strategies, marking a notable advancement in the field.

The integration of manned and unmanned aircraft can help improve wildfire response. Wildfire containment failures occur when resources available to first responders, who execute the initial stages of wildfire management referred to as the initial attack, are ineffective or insufficient. Initial attack surveillance and suppression models have linked action spaces and objectives, making their optimization computationally challenging. The initial attack may be formulated as a multi-agent partially observable Markov decision process (MPOMDP). We divide the initial attack MPOMDP into surveillance and suppression processes with their respective planners operating on different, but constant, time scales. A hierarchical framework iterates between surveillance and suppression planners while also providing collision avoidance. This framework is exemplified by a set of multi-rotor unmanned aircraft surveying an initial attack fire while a manned helicopter suppresses the fire with a water bucket. Wildfire-specific solver extensions are formulated to reduce the otherwise vast action spaces. The hierarchical framework outperforms firefighting techniques and a myopic baseline by up to 242% for moderate wildfires and 60% for rapid wildfires when simulated in abstracted and actual case studies. We also validate the early dispatching of additional suppression assets using regression models to ensure wildfire containment to thresholds established by wildfire agencies.

When machine learning (ML) models are used in applications that involve humans (e.g., online recommendation, school admission, hiring, lending), the model itself may trigger changes in the distribution of targeted data it aims to predict. Performative prediction (PP) is a framework that explicitly considers such model-dependent distribution shifts when learning ML models. While significant efforts have been devoted to finding performative stable (PS) solutions in PP for system robustness, their societal implications are less explored and it is unclear whether PS solutions are aligned with social norms such as fairness. In this paper, we set out to examine the fairness property of PS solutions in performative prediction. We first show that PS solutions can incur severe polarization effects and group-wise loss disparity. Although existing fairness mechanisms commonly used in literature can help mitigate unfairness, they may fail and disrupt the stability under model-dependent distribution shifts. We thus propose novel fairness intervention mechanisms that can simultaneously achieve both stability and fairness in PP settings. Both theoretical analysis and experiments are provided to validate the proposed method.

Deep Independent Component Estimation (DICE) has many applications in modern day machine learning as a feature engineering extraction method. We provide a novel latent variable representation of independent component analysis that enables both point estimates via expectation-maximization (EM) and full posterior sampling via Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms. Our methodology also applies to flow-based methods for nonlinear feature extraction. We discuss how to implement conditional posteriors and envelope-based methods for optimization. Through this representation hierarchy, we unify a number of hitherto disjoint estimation procedures. We illustrate our methodology and algorithms on a numerical example. Finally, we conclude with directions for future research.

Creating human-like large language model (LLM) agents is crucial for faithful social simulation. Having LLMs role-play based on demographic information sometimes improves human likeness but often does not. This study assessed whether LLM alignment with human behavior can be improved by integrating information from empirically-derived human belief networks. Using data from a human survey, we estimated a belief network encompassing 18 topics loading on two non-overlapping latent factors. We then seeded LLM-based agents with an opinion on one topic, and assessed the alignment of its expressed opinions on remaining test topics with corresponding human data. Role-playing based on demographic information alone did not align LLM and human opinions, but seeding the agent with a single belief greatly improved alignment for topics related in the belief network, and not for topics outside the network. These results suggest a novel path for human-LLM belief alignment in work seeking to simulate and understand patterns of belief distributions in society.