Causal Bayesian networks (CBN) are popular graphical probabilistic models that encode causal relations among variables. Learning their graphical structure from observational data has received a lot of attention in the literature. When there exists no latent (unobserved) confounder, i.e., no unobserved direct common cause of some observed variables, learning algorithms can be divided essentially into two classes: constraint-based and score-based approaches. The latter are often thought to be more robust than the former and to produce better results. However, to the best of our knowledge, when variables are discrete, no score-based algorithm is capable of dealing with latent confounders. This paper introduces the first fully score-based structure learning algorithm searching the space of DAGs (directed acyclic graphs) that is capable of identifying the presence of some latent confounders. It is justified mathematically and experiments highlight its effectiveness.

Quantum Artificial Intelligence (QAI) is the intersection of quantum computing and AI, a technological synergy with expected significant benefits for both. In this paper, we provide a brief overview of what has been achieved in QAI so far and point to some open questions for future research. In particular, we summarize some major key findings on the feasability and the potential of using quantum computing for solving computationally hard problems in various subfields of AI, and vice versa, the leveraging of AI methods for building and operating quantum computing devices.

This survey examines the broad suite of methods and models for combining machine learning with physics knowledge for prediction and forecast, with a focus on partial differential equations. These methods have attracted significant interest due to their potential impact on advancing scientific research and industrial practices by improving predictive models with small- or large-scale datasets and expressive predictive models with useful inductive biases. The survey has two parts. The first considers incorporating physics knowledge on an architectural level through objective functions, structured predictive models, and data augmentation. The second considers data as physics knowledge, which motivates looking at multi-task, meta, and contextual learning as an alternative approach to incorporating physics knowledge in a data-driven fashion. Finally, we also provide an industrial perspective on the application of these methods and a survey of the open-source ecosystem for physics-informed machine learning.

Labeling visual data is expensive and time-consuming. Crowdsourcing systems promise to enable highly parallelizable annotations through the participation of monetarily or otherwise motivated workers, but even this approach has its limits. The solution: replace manual work with machine work. But how reliable are machine annotators? Sacrificing data quality for high throughput cannot be acceptable, especially in safety-critical applications such as autonomous driving. In this paper, we present a framework that enables quality checking of visual data at large scales without sacrificing the reliability of the results. We ask annotators simple questions with discrete answers, which can be highly automated using a convolutional neural network trained to predict crowd responses. Unlike the methods of previous work, which aim to directly predict soft labels to address human uncertainty, we use per-task posterior distributions over soft labels as our training objective, leveraging a Dirichlet prior for analytical accessibility. We demonstrate our approach on two challenging real-world automotive datasets, showing that our model can fully automate a significant portion of tasks, saving costs in the high double-digit percentage range. Our model reliably predicts human uncertainty, allowing for more accurate inspection and filtering of difficult examples. Additionally, we show that the posterior distributions over soft labels predicted by our model can be used as priors in further inference processes, reducing the need for numerous human labelers to approximate true soft labels accurately. This results in further cost reductions and more efficient use of human resources in the annotation process.

Train operational incidents are so far diagnosed individually and manually by train maintenance technicians. In order to assist maintenance crews in their responsiveness and task prioritization, a learning machine is developed and deployed in production to suggest diagnostics to train technicians on their phones, tablets or laptops as soon as a train incident is declared. A feedback loop allows to take into account the actual diagnose by designated train maintenance experts to refine the learning machine. By formulating the problem as a discrete set classification task, feature engineering methods are proposed to extract physically plausible sets of events from traces generated on-board railway vehicles. The latter feed an original ensemble classifier to class incidents by their potential technical cause. Finally, the resulting model is trained and validated using real operational data and deployed on a cloud platform. Future work will explore how the extracted sets of events can be used to avoid incidents by assisting human experts in the creation predictive maintenance alerts.

In this paper, we study reinforcement learning in Markov Decision Processes with Probabilistic Reward Machines (PRMs), a form of non-Markovian reward commonly found in robotics tasks. We design an algorithm for PRMs that achieves a regret bound of $\widetilde{O}(\sqrt{HOAT} + H^2O^2A^{3/2} + H\sqrt{T})$, where $H$ is the time horizon, $O$ is the number of observations, $A$ is the number of actions, and $T$ is the number of time-steps. This result improves over the best-known bound, $\widetilde{O}(H\sqrt{OAT})$ of \citet{pmlr-v206-bourel23a} for MDPs with Deterministic Reward Machines (DRMs), a special case of PRMs. When $T \geq H^3O^3A^2$ and $OA \geq H$, our regret bound leads to a regret of $\widetilde{O}(\sqrt{HOAT})$, which matches the established lower bound of $\Omega(\sqrt{HOAT})$ for MDPs with DRMs up to a logarithmic factor. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first efficient algorithm for PRMs. Additionally, we present a new simulation lemma for non-Markovian rewards, which enables reward-free exploration for any non-Markovian reward given access to an approximate planner. Complementing our theoretical findings, we show through extensive experiment evaluations that our algorithm indeed outperforms prior methods in various PRM environments.

Reinforcement learning (RL) and Deep Reinforcement Learning (DRL), in particular, have the potential to disrupt and are already changing the way we interact with the world. One of the key indicators of their applicability is their ability to scale and work in real-world scenarios, that is in large-scale problems. This scale can be achieved via a combination of factors, the algorithm's ability to make use of large amounts of data and computational resources and the efficient exploration of the environment for viable solutions (i.e. policies). In this work, we investigate and motivate some theoretical foundations for deep reinforcement learning. We start with exact dynamic programming and work our way up to stochastic approximations and stochastic approximations for a model-free scenario, which forms the theoretical basis of modern reinforcement learning. We present an overview of this highly varied and rapidly changing field from the perspective of Approximate Dynamic Programming. We then focus our study on the short-comings with respect to exploration of the cornerstone approaches (i.e. DQN, DDQN, A2C) in deep reinforcement learning. On the theory side, our main contribution is the proposal of a novel Bayesian actor-critic algorithm. On the empirical side, we evaluate Bayesian exploration as well as actor-critic algorithms on standard benchmarks as well as state-of-the-art evaluation suites and show the benefits of both of these approaches over current state-of-the-art deep RL methods. We release all the implementations and provide a full python library that is easy to install and hopefully will serve the reinforcement learning community in a meaningful way, and provide a strong foundation for future work.

Assigning orders to drivers under localized spatiotemporal context (micro-view order-dispatching) is a major task in Didi, as it influences ride-hailing service experience. Existing industrial solutions mainly follow a two-stage pattern that incorporate heuristic or learning-based algorithms with naive combinatorial methods, tackling the uncertainty of both sides' behaviors, including emerging timings, spatial relationships, and travel duration, etc. In this paper, we propose a one-stage end-to-end reinforcement learning based order-dispatching approach that solves behavior prediction and combinatorial optimization uniformly in a sequential decision-making manner. Specifically, we employ a two-layer Markov Decision Process framework to model this problem, and present \underline{D}eep \underline{D}ouble \underline{S}calable \underline{N}etwork (D2SN), an encoder-decoder structure network to generate order-driver assignments directly and stop assignments accordingly. Besides, by leveraging contextual dynamics, our approach can adapt to the behavioral patterns for better performance. Extensive experiments on Didi's real-world benchmarks justify that the proposed approach significantly outperforms competitive baselines in optimizing matching efficiency and user experience tasks. In addition, we evaluate the deployment outline and discuss the gains and experiences obtained during the deployment tests from the view of large-scale engineering implementation.

In many real-world continuous action domains, human agents must decide which actions to attempt and then execute those actions to the best of their ability. However, humans cannot execute actions without error. Human performance in these domains can potentially be improved by the use of AI to aid in decision-making. One requirement for an AI to correctly reason about what actions a human agent should attempt is a correct model of that human's execution error, or skill. Recent work has demonstrated successful techniques for estimating this execution error with various types of agents across different domains. However, this previous work made several assumptions that limit the application of these ideas to real-world settings. First, previous work assumed that the error distributions were symmetric normal, which meant that only a single parameter had to be estimated. In reality, agent error distributions might exhibit arbitrary shapes and should be modeled more flexibly. Second, it was assumed that the execution error of the agent remained constant across all observations. Especially for human agents, execution error changes over time, and this must be taken into account to obtain effective estimates. To overcome both of these shortcomings, we propose a novel particle-filter-based estimator for this problem. After describing the details of this approximate estimator, we experimentally explore various design decisions and compare performance with previous skill estimators in a variety of settings to showcase the improvements. The outcome is an estimator capable of generating more realistic, time-varying execution skill estimates of agents, which can then be used to assist agents in making better decisions and improve their overall performance.

In recent years, computational improvements have allowed for more nuanced, data-driven and geographically explicit agent-based simulations. So far, simulations have struggled to adequately represent the attributes that motivate the actions of the agents. In fact, existing population synthesis frameworks generate agent profiles limited to socio-demographic attributes. In this paper, we introduce a novel value-enriched population synthesis framework that integrates a motivational layer with the traditional individual and household socio-demographic layers. Our research highlights the significance of extending the profile of agents in synthetic populations by incorporating data on values, ideologies, opinions and vital priorities, which motivate the agents' behaviour. This motivational layer can help us develop a more nuanced decision-making mechanism for the agents in social simulation settings. Our methodology integrates microdata and macrodata within different Bayesian network structures. This contribution allows to generate synthetic populations with integrated value systems that preserve the inherent socio-demographic distributions of the real population in any specific region.