Runge-Kutta methods are the classic family of solvers for ordinary differential equations (ODEs), and the basis for the state of the art. Like most numerical methods, they return point estimates. We construct a family of probabilistic numerical methods that instead return a Gauss-Markov process defining a probability distribution over the ODE solution. In contrast to prior work, we construct this family such that posterior means match the outputs of the Runge-Kutta family exactly, thus inheriting their proven good properties. Remaining degrees of freedom not identified by the match to Runge-Kutta are chosen such that the posterior probability measure fits the observed structure of the ODE. Our results shed light on the structure of Runge-Kutta solvers from a new direction, provide a richer, probabilistic output, have low computational cost, and raise new research questions.

Training of the neural autoregressive density estimator (NADE) can be viewed as doing one step of probabilistic inference on missing values in data. We propose a new model that extends this inference scheme to multiple steps, arguing that it is easier to learn to improve a reconstruction in k steps rather than to learn to reconstruct in a single inference step. The proposed model is an unsupervised building block for deep learning that combines the desirable properties of NADE and multi-prediction training: (1) Its test likelihood can be computed analytically, (2) it is easy to generate independent samples from it, and (3) it uses an inference engine that is a superset of variational inference for Boltzmann machines. The proposed NADE-k is competitive with the state-of-the-art in density estimation on the two datasets tested.

Large Markov Decision Processes are usually solved using Approximate Dynamic Programming methods such as Approximate Value Iteration or Approximate Policy Iteration. The main contribution of this paper is to show that, alternatively, the optimal state-action value function can be estimated using Difference of Convex functions (DC) Programming.

We introduce a novel sampling algorithm for Markov chain Monte Carlo-based Bayesian inference for factorial hidden Markov models. This algorithm is based on an auxiliary variable construction that restricts the model space allowing iterative exploration in polynomial time. The sampling approach overcomes limitations with common conditional Gibbs samplers that use asymmetric updates and become easily trapped in local modes. Instead, our method uses symmetric moves that allows joint updating of the latent sequences and improves mixing. We illustrate the application of the approach with simulated and a real data example.

We present a new probabilistic model for transcribing piano music from audio to a symbolic form. Our model reflects the process by which discrete musical events give rise to acoustic signals that are then superimposed to produce the observed data. As a result, the inference procedure for our model naturally resolves the source separation problem introduced by the the piano's polyphony. In order to adapt to the properties of a new instrument or acoustic environment being transcribed, we learn recording-specific spectral profiles and temporal envelopes in an unsupervised fashion. Our system outperforms the best published approaches on a standard piano transcription task, achieving a 10.6% relative gain in note onset F

Markov Logic Networks (MLNs) are weighted first-order logic templates for generating large (ground) Markov networks. Lifted inference algorithms for them bring the power of logical inference to probabilistic inference. These algorithms operate as much as possible at the compact first-order level, grounding or propositionalizing the MLN only as necessary. As a result, lifted inference algorithms can be much more scalable than propositional algorithms that operate directly on the much larger ground network. Unfortunately, existing lifted inference algorithms suffer from two interrelated problems, which severely affects their scalability in practice. First, for most real-world MLNs having complex structure, they are unable to exploit symmetries and end up grounding most atoms (the grounding problem).

This paper describes the problem of coordination of an autonomous Multi-Agent System which aims to solve the coverage planning problem in a complex environment. The considered applications are the detection and identification of objects of interest while covering an area. These tasks, which are highly relevant for space applications, are also of interest among various domains including the underwater context, which is the focus of this study. In this context, coverage planning is traditionally modelled as a Markov Decision Process where a coordinated MAS, a swarm of heterogeneous autonomous underwater vehicles, is required to survey an area and search for objects. This MDP is associated with several challenges: environment uncertainties, communication constraints, and an ensemble of hazards, including time-varying and unpredictable changes in the underwater environment. MARL algorithms can solve highly non-linear problems using deep neural networks and display great scalability against an increased number of agents. Nevertheless, most of the current results in the underwater domain are limited to simulation due to the high learning time of MARL algorithms. For this reason, a novel strategy is introduced to accelerate this convergence rate by incorporating biologically inspired heuristics to guide the policy during training. The PSO method, which is inspired by the behaviour of a group of animals, is selected as a heuristic. It allows the policy to explore the highest quality regions of the action and state spaces, from the beginning of the training, optimizing the exploration/exploitation trade-off. The resulting agent requires fewer interactions to reach optimal performance. The method is applied to the MSAC algorithm and evaluated for a 2D covering area mission in a continuous control environment.

In image processing, solving inverse problems is the task of finding plausible reconstructions of an image that was corrupted by some (usually known) degradation model. Commonly, this process is done using a generative image model that can guide the reconstruction towards solutions that appear natural. The success of diffusion models over the last few years has made them a leading candidate for this task. However, the sequential nature of diffusion models makes this conditional sampling process challenging. Furthermore, since diffusion models are often defined in the latent space of an autoencoder, the encoder-decoder transformations introduce additional difficulties. Here, we suggest a novel sampling method based on sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) in the latent space of diffusion models. We use the forward process of the diffusion model to add additional auxiliary observations and then perform an SMC sampling as part of the backward process. Empirical evaluations on ImageNet and FFHQ show the benefits of our approach over competing methods on various inverse problem tasks.

Heterogeneity poses a fundamental challenge for many real-world large-scale decision-making problems but remains largely understudied. In this paper, we study the fully heterogeneous setting of a prominent class of such problems, known as weakly-coupled Markov decision processes (WCMDPs). Each WCMDP consists of $N$ arms (or subproblems), which have distinct model parameters in the fully heterogeneous setting, leading to the curse of dimensionality when $N$ is large. We show that, under mild assumptions, a natural adaptation of the ID policy, although originally proposed for a homogeneous special case of WCMDPs, in fact achieves an $O(1/\sqrt{N})$ optimality gap in long-run average reward per arm for fully heterogeneous WCMDPs as $N$ becomes large. This is the first asymptotic optimality result for fully heterogeneous average-reward WCMDPs. Our techniques highlight the construction of a novel projection-based Lyapunov function, which witnesses the convergence of rewards and costs to an optimal region in the presence of heterogeneity.

Under what conditions can capable AI agents efficiently align their actions with human preferences? More specifically, when they are proficient enough to collaborate with us, how long does coordination take, and when is it computationally feasible? These foundational questions of AI alignment help define what makes an AI agent ``sufficiently safe'' and valuable to humans. Since such generally capable systems do not yet exist, a theoretical analysis is needed to establish when guarantees hold -- and what they even are. We introduce a game-theoretic framework that generalizes prior alignment approaches with fewer assumptions, allowing us to analyze the computational complexity of alignment across $M$ objectives and $N$ agents, providing both upper and lower bounds. Unlike previous work, which often assumes common priors, idealized communication, or implicit tractability, our framework formally characterizes the difficulty of alignment under minimal assumptions. Our main result shows that even when agents are fully rational and computationally \emph{unbounded}, alignment can be achieved with high probability in time \emph{linear} in the task space size. Therefore, in real-world settings, where task spaces are often \emph{exponential} in input length, this remains impractical. More strikingly, our lower bound demonstrates that alignment is \emph{impossible} to speed up when scaling to exponentially many tasks or agents, highlighting a fundamental computational barrier to scalable alignment. Relaxing these idealized assumptions, we study \emph{computationally bounded} agents with noisy messages (representing obfuscated intent), showing that while alignment can still succeed with high probability, it incurs additional \emph{exponential} slowdowns in the task space size, number of agents, and number of tasks. We conclude by identifying conditions that make alignment more feasible.