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 Markov Models


Tempering the Bayes Filter towards Improved Model-Based Estimation

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Model-based filtering is often carried out while subject to an imperfect model, as learning partially-observable stochastic systems remains a challenge. Recent work on Bayesian inference found that tempering the likelihood or full posterior of an imperfect model can improve predictive accuracy, as measured by expected negative log likelihood. In this paper, we develop the tempered Bayes filter, improving estimation performance through both of the aforementioned, and one newly introduced, modalities. The result admits a recursive implementation with a computational complexity no higher than that of the original Bayes filter. Our analysis reveals that -- besides the well-known fact in the field of Bayesian inference that likelihood tempering affects the balance between prior and likelihood -- full-posterior tempering tunes the level of entropy in the final belief distribution. We further find that a region of the tempering space can be understood as interpolating between the Bayes- and MAP filters, recovering these as special cases. Analytical results further establish conditions under which a tempered Bayes filter achieves improved predictive performance. Specializing the results to the linear Gaussian case, we obtain the tempered Kalman filter. In this context, we interpret how the parameters affect the Kalman state estimate and covariance propagation. Empirical results confirm that our method consistently improves predictive accuracy over the Bayes filter baseline.


Unlocking the Power of Boltzmann Machines by Parallelizable Sampler and Efficient Temperature Estimation

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Boltzmann machines (BMs) are powerful energy-based generative models, but their heavy training cost has largely confined practical use to Restricted BMs (RBMs) trained with an efficient learning method called contrastive divergence. More accurate learning typically requires Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) Boltzmann sampling, but it is time-consuming due to the difficulty of parallelization for more expressive models. To address this limitation, we first propose a new Boltzmann sampler inspired by a quantum-inspired combinatorial optimization called simulated bifurcation (SB). This SB-inspired approach, which we name Langevin SB (LSB), enables parallelized sampling while maintaining accuracy comparable to MCMC. Furthermore, this is applicable not only to RBMs but also to BMs with general couplings. However, LSB cannot control the inverse temperature of the output Boltzmann distribution, which hinders learning and degrades performance. To overcome this limitation, we also developed an efficient method for estimating the inverse temperature during the learning process, which we call conditional expectation matching (CEM). By combining LSB and CEM, we establish an efficient learning framework for BMs with greater expressive power than RBMs. We refer to this framework as sampler-adaptive learning (SAL). SAL opens new avenues for energy-based generative modeling beyond RBMs.


Non-stationary and Varying-discounting Markov Decision Processes for Reinforcement Learning

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Algorithms developed under stationary Markov Decision Processes (MDPs) often face challenges in non-stationary environments, and infinite-horizon formulations may not directly apply to finite-horizon tasks. To address these limitations, we introduce the Non-stationary and Varying-discounting MDP (NVMDP) framework, which naturally accommodates non-stationarity and allows discount rates to vary with time and transitions. Infinite-horizon, stationary MDPs emerge as special cases of NVMDPs for identifying an optimal policy, and finite-horizon MDPs are also subsumed within the NVMDP formulations. Moreover, NVMDPs provide a flexible mechanism to shape optimal policies, without altering the state space, action space, or the reward structure. We establish the theoretical foundations of NVMDPs, including assumptions, state- and action-value formulation and recursion, matrix representation, optimality conditions, and policy improvement under finite state and action spaces. Building on these results, we adapt dynamic programming and generalized Q-learning algorithms to NVMDPs, along with formal convergence proofs. For problems requiring function approximation, we extend the Policy Gradient Theorem and the policy improvement bound in Trust Region Policy Optimization (TRPO), offering proofs in both scalar and matrix forms. Empirical evaluations in a non-stationary gridworld environment demonstrate that NVMDP-based algorithms successfully recover optimal trajectories under multiple reward and discounting schemes, whereas original Q-learning fails. These results collectively show that NVMDPs provide a theoretically sound and practically effective framework for reinforcement learning, requiring only minor algorithmic modifications while enabling robust handling of non-stationarity and explicit optimal policy shaping.


CogDrive: Cognition-Driven Multimodal Prediction-Planning Fusion for Safe Autonomy

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Safe autonomous driving in mixed traffic requires a unified understanding of multimodal interactions and dynamic planning under uncertainty. Existing learning based approaches struggle to capture rare but safety critical behaviors, while rule based systems often lack adaptability in complex interactions. To address these limitations, CogDrive introduces a cognition driven multimodal prediction and planning framework that integrates explicit modal reasoning with safety aware trajectory optimization. The prediction module adopts cognitive representations of interaction modes based on topological motion semantics and nearest neighbor relational encoding. With a differentiable modal loss and multimodal Gaussian decoding, CogDrive learns sparse and unbalanced interaction behaviors and improves long horizon trajectory prediction. The planning module incorporates an emergency response concept and optimizes safety stabilized trajectories, where short term consistent branches ensure safety during replanning cycles and long term branches support smooth and collision free motion under low probability switching modes. Experiments on Argoverse2 and INTERACTION datasets show that CogDrive achieves strong performance in trajectory accuracy and miss rate, while closed loop simulations confirm adaptive behavior in merge and intersection scenarios. By combining cognitive multimodal prediction with safety oriented planning, CogDrive offers an interpretable and reliable paradigm for safe autonomy in complex traffic.


Generative modeling using evolved quantum Boltzmann machines

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Born-rule generative modeling, a central task in quantum machine learning, seeks to learn probability distributions that can be efficiently sampled by measuring complex quantum states. One hope is for quantum models to efficiently capture probability distributions that are difficult to learn and simulate by classical means alone. Quantum Boltzmann machines were proposed about one decade ago for this purpose, yet efficient training methods have remained elusive. In this paper, I overcome this obstacle by proposing a practical solution that trains quantum Boltzmann machines for Born-rule generative modeling. Two key ingredients in the proposal are the Donsker-Varadhan variational representation of the classical relative entropy and the quantum Boltzmann gradient estimator of [Patel et al., arXiv:2410.12935]. I present the main result for a more general ansatz known as an evolved quantum Boltzmann machine [Minervini et al., arXiv:2501.03367], which combines parameterized real- and imaginary-time evolution. I also show how to extend the findings to other distinguishability measures beyond relative entropy. Finally, I present four different hybrid quantum-classical algorithms for the minimax optimization underlying training, and I discuss their theoretical convergence guarantees.


Sparse Computations in Deep Learning Inference

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The computational demands of modern Deep Neural Networks (DNNs) are immense and constantly growing. While training costs usually capture public attention, inference demands are also contributing in significant computational, energy and environmental footprints. Sparsity stands out as a critical mechanism for drastically reducing these resource demands. However, its potential remains largely untapped and is not yet fully incorporated in production AI systems. To bridge this gap, this work provides the necessary knowledge and insights for performance engineers keen to get involved in deep learning inference optimization. In particular, in this work we: a) discuss the various forms of sparsity that can be utilized in DNN inference, b) explain how the original dense computations translate to sparse kernels, c) provide an extensive bibliographic review of the state-of-the-art in the implementation of these kernels for CPUs and GPUs, d) discuss the availability of sparse datasets in support of sparsity-related research and development, e) explore the current software tools and frameworks that provide robust sparsity support, and f) present evaluation results of different implementations of the key SpMM and SDDMM kernels on CPU and GPU platforms. Ultimately, this paper aims to serve as a resource for performance engineers seeking to develop and deploy highly efficient sparse deep learning models in productions.


Vehicle Dynamics Embedded World Models for Autonomous Driving

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

World models have gained significant attention as a promising approach for autonomous driving. By emulating human-like perception and decision-making processes, these models can predict and adapt to dynamic environments. Existing methods typically map high-dimensional observations into compact latent spaces and learn optimal policies within these latent representations. However, prior work usually jointly learns ego-vehicle dynamics and environmental transition dynamics from the image input, leading to inefficiencies and a lack of robustness to variations in vehicle dynamics. To address these issues, we propose the Vehicle Dynamics embedded Dreamer (VDD) method, which decouples the modeling of ego-vehicle dynamics from environmental transition dynamics. This separation allows the world model to generalize effectively across vehicles with diverse parameters. Additionally, we introduce two strategies to further enhance the robustness of the learned policy: Policy Adjustment during Deployment (PAD) and Policy Augmentation during Training (PAT). Comprehensive experiments in simulated environments demonstrate that the proposed model significantly improves both driving performance and robustness to variations in vehicle dynamics, outperforming existing approaches.


From monoliths to modules: Decomposing transducers for efficient world modelling

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

World models have been recently proposed as sandbox environments in which AI agents can be trained and evaluated before deployment. Although realistic world models often have high computational demands, efficient modelling is usually possible by exploiting the fact that real-world scenarios tend to involve subcomponents that interact in a modular manner. In this paper, we explore this idea by developing a framework for decomposing complex world models represented by transducers, a class of models gen-eralising POMDPs. Whereas the composition of transducers is well understood, our results clarify how to invert this process deriving sub-transducers operating on distinct input-output subspaces, enabling parallelizable and interpretable alternatives to monolithic world modelling that can support distributed inference. Overall, these results lay a groundwork for bridging the structural transparency demanded by AI safety and the computational efficiency required for real-world inference.


AVA-VLA: Improving Vision-Language-Action models with Active Visual Attention

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Vision-Language-Action (VLA) models have demonstrated remarkable capabilities in embodied AI tasks. However, existing VLA models, often built upon Vision-Language Models (VLMs), typically process dense visual inputs independently at each timestep. This approach implicitly models the task as a Markov Decision Process (MDP). However, this history-agnostic design is suboptimal for effective visual token processing in dynamic sequential decision-making, as it fails to leverage the context of history. To address this limitation, we reformulate the problem from a Partially Observable Markov Decision Process (POMDP) perspective and propose a novel framework named AVA-VLA. Inspired by the POMDP that the action generation should be conditioned on the belief state. AVA-VLA introduces Active Visual Attention (AVA) to dynamically modulate visual processing. It achieves this by leveraging the recurrent state, which is a neural approximation of the agent's belief state derived from the previous decision step. Specifically, the AVA module uses the recurrent state to compute the soft weights to actively process task-relevant visual tokens based on its historical context. Comprehensive evaluations demonstrate that AVA-VLA achieves state-of-the-art performance across popular robotic benchmarks, including LIBERO and CALVIN. Furthermore, real-world deployments on a dual-arm robot platform validate the framework's practical applicability and robust sim-to-real transferability.


Multi-agent In-context Coordination via Decentralized Memory Retrieval

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Large transformer models, trained on diverse datasets, have demonstrated impressive few-shot performance on previously unseen tasks without requiring parameter updates. This capability has also been explored in Reinforcement Learning (RL), where agents interact with the environment to retrieve context and maximize cumulative rewards, showcasing strong adaptability in complex settings. However, in cooperative Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning (MARL), where agents must coordinate toward a shared goal, decentralized policy deployment can lead to mismatches in task alignment and reward assignment, limiting the efficiency of policy adaptation. To address this challenge, we introduce Multi-agent In-context Coordination via Decentralized Memory Retrieval (MAICC), a novel approach designed to enhance coordination by fast adaptation. Our method involves training a centralized embedding model to capture fine-grained trajectory representations, followed by decentralized models that approximate the centralized one to obtain team-level task information. Based on the learned embeddings, relevant trajectories are retrieved as context, which, combined with the agents' current sub-trajectories, inform decision-making. During decentralized execution, we introduce a novel memory mechanism that effectively balances test-time online data with offline memory. Based on the constructed memory, we propose a hybrid utility score that incorporates both individual- and team-level returns, ensuring credit assignment across agents. Extensive experiments on cooperative MARL benchmarks, including Level-Based Foraging (LBF) and SMAC (v1/v2), show that MAICC enables faster adaptation to unseen tasks compared to existing methods. Code is available at https://github.com/LAMDA-RL/MAICC.