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 Markov Models


Active Inference with Reusable State-Dependent Value Profiles

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Adaptive behavior in volatile environments requires agents to deploy different value-control regimes across latent contexts, but representing separate preferences, policy biases, and action confidence for every situation is intractable. We introduce value profiles: a small set of reusable bundles of value-related parameters--outcome preferences, policy priors, and policy precision--that are assigned to hidden states in the generative model. As posterior beliefs over states evolve trial-by-trial, effective control parameters emerge through belief-weighted mixing, enabling state-conditional strategy recruitment without maintaining independent parameters for each situation. We evaluate this framework in probabilistic reversal learning, comparing static precision, entropy-coupled dynamic precision, and profile-based models using cross-validated log-likelihood and information criteria. Model comparison using AIC favors the profile-based model over simpler alternatives ( 100-point differences), with consistent parameter recovery demonstrating structural identifiability even when context must be inferred from noisy observations. Model-based inference suggests that, in this task, adaptive control operates primarily through policy prior modulation rather than policy precision modulation, with gradual belief-driven profile recruitment confirming state-conditional rather than merely uncertainty-driven control. Overall, reusable value profiles provide a tractable computational account of belief-conditioned value control in volatile environments, providing a reusable, mode-like representational scheme for behavioral flexibility that yields testable signatures of belief-conditioned control.


Decoupled Q-Chunking

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Temporal-difference (TD) methods learn state and action values efficiently by bootstrapping from their own future value predictions, but such a self-bootstrapping mechanism is prone to bootstrapping bias, where the errors in the value targets accumulate across steps and result in biased value estimates. Recent work has proposed to use chunked critics, which estimate the value of short action sequences ("chunks") rather than individual actions, speeding up value backup. However, extracting policies from chunked critics is challenging: policies must output the entire action chunk open-loop, which can be sub-optimal for environments that require policy reactivity and also challenging to model especially when the chunk length grows. Our key insight is to decouple the chunk length of the critic from that of the policy, allowing the policy to operate over shorter action chunks. We propose a novel algorithm that achieves this by optimizing the policy against a distilled critic for partial action chunks, constructed by optimistically backing up from the original chunked critic to approximate the maximum value achievable when a partial action chunk is extended to a complete one. This design retains the benefits of multi-step value propagation while sidestepping both the open-loop sub-optimality and the difficulty of learning action chunking policies for long action chunks. We evaluate our method on challenging, long-horizon offline goal-conditioned tasks and show that it reliably outperforms prior methods. Code: github.com/ColinQiyangLi/dqc.


A Markov Decision Process Framework for Early Maneuver Decisions in Satellite Collision Avoidance

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

ABSTRACT We develop a Markov decision process (MDP) framework to autonomously make guidance decisions for satellite collision avoidance maneuver (CAM) and a reinforcement learning policy gradient (RL-PG) algorithm to enable direct optimization of guidance policy using historic CAM data. In addition to maintaining acceptable collision risks, this approach seeks to minimize the average propellant consumption of CAMs by making early maneuver decisions. We model CAM as a continuous state, discrete action and finite horizon MDP, where the critical decision is determining when to initiate the maneuver. By deciding to maneuver earlier than conventional methods, the Markov policy effectively favors CAMs that achieve comparable rates of collision risk reduction while consuming less propellant. Using historical data of tracked conjunction events, we verify this framework and conduct an extensive parameter-sensitivity study. When evaluated on synthetic conjunction events, the trained policy consumes significantly less propellant overall and per maneuver in comparison to a conventional cut-off policy that initiates maneuvers 24 hours before the time of closest approach (TCA). On historical conjunction events, the trained policy consumes more propellant overall but consumes less propellant per maneuver. For both historical and synthetic conjunction events, the trained policy is slightly more conservative in identifying conjunctions events that warrant CAMs in comparison to cutoff policies.


TDC-Cache: A Trustworthy Decentralized Cooperative Caching Framework for Web3.0

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Abstract--The rapid growth of Web3.0 is transforming the Internet from a centralized structure to decentralized, which empowers users with unprecedented self-sovereignty over their own data. However, in the context of decentralized data access within Web3.0, it is imperative to cope with efficiency concerns caused by the replication of redundant data, as well as security vulnerabilities caused by data inconsistency. T o address these challenges, we develop a Trustworthy Decentralized Cooperative Caching (TDC-Cache) framework for Web3.0 to ensure efficient caching and enhance system resilience against adversarial threats. This framework features a two-layer architecture, wherein the Decentralized Oracle Network (DON) layer serves as a trusted intermediary platform for decentralized caching, bridging the contents from decentralized storage and the content requests from users. In light of the complexity of Web3.0 network topologies and data flows, we propose a Deep Reinforcement Learning-Based Decentralized Caching (DRL-DC) for TDC-Cache to dynamically optimize caching strategies of distributed oracles. Furthermore, we develop a Proof of Cooperative Learning (PoCL) consensus to maintain the consistency of decentralized caching decisions within DON. Experimental results show that, compared with existing approaches, the proposed framework reduces average access latency by 20%, increases the cache hit rate by at most 18%, and improves the average success consensus rate by 10%. Overall, this paper serves as a first foray into the investigation of decentralized caching framework and strategy for Web3.0. HE rapid evolution of Web3.0 is driving the transition from traditional centralized systems to decentralized architectures. Leveraging blockchain, decentralized storage, and smart contracts, Web3.0 empowers users with unprecedented self-sovereignty over their own data through Decentralized Applications (DApps) [1].


Bellman Optimality of Average-Reward Robust Markov Decision Processes with a Constant Gain

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Learning and optimal control under robust Markov decision processes (MDPs) have received increasing attention, yet most existing theory, algorithms, and applications focus on finite-horizon or discounted models. Long-run average-reward formulations, while natural in many operations research and management contexts, remain underexplored. This is primarily because the dynamic programming foundations are technically challenging and only partially understood, with several fundamental questions remaining open. This paper steps toward a general framework for average-reward robust MDPs by analyzing the constant-gain setting. We study the average-reward robust control problem with possible information asymmetries between the controller and an S-rectangular adversary. Our analysis centers on the constant-gain robust Bellman equation, examining both the existence of solutions and their relationship to the optimal average reward. Specifically, we identify when solutions to the robust Bellman equation characterize the optimal average reward and stationary policies, and we provide one-sided weak communication conditions ensuring solutions' existence. These findings expand the dynamic programming theory for average-reward robust MDPs and lay a foundation for robust dynamic decision making under long-run average criteria in operational environments.


Provably Learning from Modern Language Models via Low Logit Rank

arXiv.org Machine Learning

While modern language models and their inner workings are incredibly complex, recent work (Golowich, Liu & Shetty; 2025) has proposed a simple and potentially tractable abstraction for them through the observation that empirically, these language models all seem to have approximately low logit rank. Roughly, this means that a matrix formed by the model's log probabilities of various tokens conditioned on certain sequences of tokens is well approximated by a low rank matrix. In this paper, our focus is on understanding how this structure can be exploited algorithmically for obtaining provable learning guarantees. Since low logit rank models can encode hard-to-learn distributions such as noisy parities, we study a query learning model with logit queries that reflects the access model for common APIs. Our main result is an efficient algorithm for learning any approximately low logit rank model from queries. We emphasize that our structural assumption closely reflects the behavior that is empirically observed in modern language models. Thus, our result gives what we believe is the first end-to-end learning guarantee for a generative model that plausibly captures modern language models.


Optimizing Algorithms for Mobile Health Interventions with Active Querying Optimization

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Reinforcement learning in mobile health (mHealth) interventions requires balancing intervention efficacy with user burden, particularly when state measurements (for example, user surveys or feedback) are costly yet essential. The Act-Then-Measure (ATM) heuristic addresses this challenge by decoupling control and measurement actions within the Action-Contingent Noiselessly Observable Markov Decision Process (ACNO-MDP) framework. However, the standard ATM algorithm relies on a temporal-difference-inspired Q-learning method, which is prone to instability in sparse and noisy environments. In this work, we propose a Bayesian extension to ATM that replaces standard Q-learning with a Kalman filter-style Bayesian update, maintaining uncertainty-aware estimates of Q-values and enabling more stable and sample-efficient learning. We evaluate our method in both toy environments and clinically motivated testbeds. In small, tabular environments, Bayesian ATM achieves comparable or improved scalarized returns with substantially lower variance and more stable policy behavior. In contrast, in larger and more complex mHealth settings, both the standard and Bayesian ATM variants perform poorly, suggesting a mismatch between ATM's modeling assumptions and the structural challenges of real-world mHealth domains. These findings highlight the value of uncertainty-aware methods in low-data settings while underscoring the need for new RL algorithms that explicitly model causal structure, continuous states, and delayed feedback under observation cost constraints.


Bayesian Networks, Markov Networks, Moralisation, Triangulation: a Categorical Perspective

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Moralisation and Triangulation are transformations allowing to switch between different ways of factoring a probability distribution into a graphical model. Moralisation allows to view a Bayesian network (a directed model) as a Markov network (an undirected model), whereas triangulation addresses the opposite direction. We present a categorical framework where these transformations are modelled as functors between a category of Bayesian networks and one of Markov networks. The two kinds of network (the objects of these categories) are themselves represented as functors from a `syntax' domain to a `semantics' codomain. Notably, moralisation and triangulation can be defined inductively on such syntax via functor pre-composition. Moreover, while moralisation is fully syntactic, triangulation relies on semantics. This leads to a discussion of the variable elimination algorithm, reinterpreted here as a functor in its own right, that splits the triangulation procedure in two: one purely syntactic, the other purely semantic. This approach introduces a functorial perspective into the theory of probabilistic graphical models, which highlights the distinctions between syntactic and semantic modifications.


Generalizable Collaborative Search-and-Capture in Cluttered Environments via Path-Guided MAPPO and Directional Frontier Allocation

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Collaborative pursuit-evasion in cluttered environments presents significant challenges due to sparse rewards and constrained Fields of View (FOV). Standard Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning (MARL) often suffers from inefficient exploration and fails to scale to large scenarios. We propose PGF-MAPPO (Path-Guided Frontier MAPPO), a hierarchical framework bridging topological planning with reactive control. To resolve local minima and sparse rewards, we integrate an A*-based potential field for dense reward shaping. Furthermore, we introduce Directional Frontier Allocation, combining Farthest Point Sampling (FPS) with geometric angle suppression to enforce spatial dispersion and accelerate coverage. The architecture employs a parameter-shared decentralized critic, maintaining O(1) model complexity suitable for robotic swarms. Experiments demonstrate that PGF-MAPPO achieves superior capture efficiency against faster evaders. Policies trained on 10x10 maps exhibit robust zero-shot generalization to unseen 20x20 environments, significantly outperforming rule-based and learning-based baselines.


Toward Efficient and Robust Behavior Models for Multi-Agent Driving Simulation

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Scalable multi-agent driving simulation requires behavior models that are both realistic and computationally efficient. We address this by optimizing the behavior model that controls individual traffic participants. To improve efficiency, we adopt an instance-centric scene representation, where each traffic participant and map element is modeled in its own local coordinate frame. This design enables efficient, viewpoint-invariant scene encoding and allows static map tokens to be reused across simulation steps. To model interactions, we employ a query-centric symmetric context encoder with relative positional encodings between local frames. We use Adversarial Inverse Reinforcement Learning to learn the behavior model and propose an adaptive reward transformation that automatically balances robustness and realism during training. Experiments demonstrate that our approach scales efficiently with the number of tokens, significantly reducing training and inference times, while outperforming several agent-centric baselines in terms of positional accuracy and robustness.