The fundamental assumption of reinforcement learning in Markov decision processes (MDPs) is that the relevant decision process is, in fact, Markov. However, when MDPs have rich observations, agents typically learn by way of an abstract state representation, and such representations are not guaranteed to preserve the Markov property. We introduce a novel set of conditions and prove that they are sufficient for learning a Markov abstract state representation. We then describe a practical training procedure that combines inverse model estimation and temporal contrastive learning to learn an abstraction that approximately satisfies these conditions. Our novel training objective is compatible with both online and offline training: it does not require a reward signal, but agents can capitalize on reward information when available. We empirically evaluate our approach on a visual gridworld domain and a set of continuous control benchmarks. Our approach learns representations that capture the underlying structure of the domain and lead to improved sample efficiency over state-of-the-art deep reinforcement learning with visual features -- often matching or exceeding the performance achieved with hand-designed compact state information.

We propose a novel framework for verifiable and compositional reinforcement learning (RL) in which a collection of RL sub-systems, each of which learns to accomplish a separate sub-task, are composed to achieve an overall task. The framework consists of a high-level model, represented as a parametric Markov decision process (pMDP) which is used to plan and to analyze compositions of sub-systems, and of the collection of low-level sub-systems themselves. By defining interfaces between the sub-systems, the framework enables automatic decompositons of task specifications, e.g., reach a target set of states with a probability of at least 0.95, into individual sub-task specifications, i.e. achieve the sub-system's exit conditions with at least some minimum probability, given that its entry conditions are met. This in turn allows for the independent training and testing of the sub-systems; if they each learn a policy satisfying the appropriate sub-task specification, then their composition is guaranteed to satisfy the overall task specification. Conversely, if the sub-task specifications cannot all be satisfied by the learned policies, we present a method, formulated as the problem of finding an optimal set of parameters in the pMDP, to automatically update the sub-task specifications to account for the observed shortcomings. The result is an iterative procedure for defining sub-task specifications, and for training the sub-systems to meet them. As an additional benefit, this procedure allows for particularly challenging or important components of an overall task to be determined automatically, and focused on, during training. Experimental results demonstrate the presented framework's novel capabilities.

Predictive state representations (PSRs) are models of controlled non-Markov observation sequences which exhibit the same generative process governing POMDP observations without relying on an underlying latent state. In that respect, a PSR is indistinguishable from the corresponding POMDP. However, PSRs notoriously ignore the notion of rewards, which undermines the general utility of PSR models for control, planning, or reinforcement learning. Therefore, we describe a sufficient and necessary accuracy condition which determines whether a PSR is able to accurately model POMDP rewards, we show that rewards can be approximated even when the accuracy condition is not satisfied, and we find that a non-trivial number of POMDPs taken from a well-known third-party repository do not satisfy the accuracy condition. We propose reward-predictive state representations (R-PSRs), a generalization of PSRs which accurately models both observations and rewards, and develop value iteration for R-PSRs. We show that there is a mismatch between optimal POMDP policies and the optimal PSR policies derived from approximate rewards. On the other hand, optimal R-PSR policies perfectly match optimal POMDP policies, reconfirming R-PSRs as accurate state-less generative models of observations and rewards.

We introduce a mapping between Maximum Entropy Reinforcement Learning (MaxEnt RL) and Markovian processes conditioned on rare events. In the long time limit, this mapping allows us to derive analytical expressions for the optimal policy, dynamics and initial state distributions for the general case of stochastic dynamics in MaxEnt RL. We find that soft-$\mathcal{Q}$ functions in MaxEnt RL can be obtained from the Perron-Frobenius eigenvalue and the corresponding left eigenvector of a regular, non-negative matrix derived from the underlying Markov Decision Process (MDP). The results derived lead to novel algorithms for model-based and model-free MaxEnt RL, which we validate by numerical simulations. The mapping established in this work opens further avenues for the application of novel analytical and computational approaches to problems in MaxEnt RL. We make our code available at: https://github.com/argearriojas/maxent-rl-mdp-scripts

We investigate the classical active pure exploration problem in Markov Decision Processes, where the agent sequentially selects actions and, from the resulting system trajectory, aims at identifying the best policy as fast as possible. We propose an information-theoretic lower bound on the average number of steps required before a correct answer can be given with probability at least $1-\delta$. This lower bound involves a non-convex optimization problem, for which we propose a convex relaxation. We further provide an algorithm whose sample complexity matches the relaxed lower bound up to a factor $2$. This algorithm addresses general communicating MDPs; we propose a variant with reduced exploration rate (and hence faster convergence) under an additional ergodicity assumption. This work extends previous results relative to the \emph{generative setting}~\cite{marjani2020adaptive}, where the agent could at each step observe the random outcome of any (state, action) pair. In contrast, we show here how to deal with the \emph{navigation constraints}. Our analysis relies on an ergodic theorem for non-homogeneous Markov chains which we consider of wide interest in the analysis of Markov Decision Processes.

Given a Markov decision process (MDP) and a linear-time ($\omega$-regular or LTL) specification, the controller synthesis problem aims to compute the optimal policy that satisfies the specification. More recently, problems that reason over the asymptotic behavior of systems have been proposed through the lens of steady-state planning. This entails finding a control policy for an MDP such that the Markov chain induced by the solution policy satisfies a given set of constraints on its steady-state distribution. This paper studies a generalization of the controller synthesis problem for a linear-time specification under steady-state constraints on the asymptotic behavior. We present an algorithm to find a deterministic policy satisfying $\omega$-regular and steady-state constraints by characterizing the solutions as an integer linear program, and experimentally evaluate our approach.

The demand of probabilistic time series forecasting has been recently raised in various dynamic system scenarios, for example, system identification and prognostic and health management of machines. To this end, we combine the advances in both deep generative models and state space model (SSM) to come up with a novel, data-driven deep probabilistic sequence model. Specially, we follow the popular encoder-decoder generative structure to build the recurrent neural networks (RNN) assisted variational sequence model on an augmented recurrent input space, which could induce rich stochastic sequence dependency. Besides, in order to alleviate the issue of inconsistency between training and predicting as well as improving the mining of dynamic patterns, we (i) propose using a hybrid output as input at next time step, which brings training and predicting into alignment; and (ii) further devise a generalized auto-regressive strategy that encodes all the historical dependencies at current time step. Thereafter, we first investigate the methodological characteristics of the proposed deep probabilistic sequence model on toy cases, and then comprehensively demonstrate the superiority of our model against existing deep probabilistic SSM models through extensive numerical experiments on eight system identification benchmarks from various dynamic systems. Finally, we apply our sequence model to a real-world centrifugal compressor sensor data forecasting problem, and again verify its outstanding performance by quantifying the time series predictive distribution.

Communication is highly overloaded. Despite this, even young children are good at leveraging context to understand ambiguous signals. We propose a computational account of overloaded signaling from a shared agency perspective which we call the Imagined We for Communication. Under this framework, communication helps cooperators coordinate their perspectives, allowing them to act together to achieve shared goals. We assume agents are rational cooperators, which puts constraints on how signals can be sent and interpreted. We implement this model in a set of simulations demonstrating this model's success under increasing ambiguity as well as increasing layers of reasoning. Our model is capable of improving performance with deeper recursive reasoning; however, it outperforms comparison baselines at even the shallowest level, highlighting how shared knowledge and cooperative logic can do much of the heavy-lifting in language.

For continuing environments, reinforcement learning methods commonly maximize a discounted reward criterion with discount factor close to 1 in order to approximate the steady-state reward (the gain). However, such a criterion only considers the long-run performance, ignoring the transient behaviour. In this work, we develop a policy gradient method that optimizes the gain, then the bias (which indicates the transient performance and is important to capably select from policies with equal gain). We derive expressions that enable sampling for the gradient of the bias, and its preconditioning Fisher matrix. We further propose an algorithm that solves the corresponding bi-level optimization using a logarithmic barrier. Experimental results provide insights into the fundamental mechanisms of our proposal.

It is important to predict any adversarial attacks and their types to enable effective defense systems. Often it is hard to label such activities as malicious ones without adequate analytical reasoning. We propose the use of Hidden Markov Model (HMM) to predict the family of related attacks. Our proposed model is based on the observations often agglomerated in the form of log files and from the target or the victim's perspective. We have built an HMM-based prediction model and implemented our proposed approach using Viterbi algorithm, which generates a sequence of states corresponding to stages of a particular attack. As a proof of concept and also to demonstrate the performance of the model, we have conducted a case study on predicting a family of attacks called Action Spoofing.