We study finite episodic Markov decision processes incorporating dynamic risk measures to capture risk sensitivity. To this end, we present two model-based algorithms applied to \emph{Lipschitz} dynamic risk measures, a wide range of risk measures that subsumes spectral risk measure, optimized certainty equivalent, distortion risk measures among others. We establish both regret upper bounds and lower bounds. Notably, our upper bounds demonstrate optimal dependencies on the number of actions and episodes, while reflecting the inherent trade-off between risk sensitivity and sample complexity. Additionally, we substantiate our theoretical results through numerical experiments.

Traffic prediction plays a crucial role in alleviating traffic congestion which represents a critical problem globally, resulting in negative consequences such as lost hours of additional travel time and increased fuel consumption. Integrating emerging technologies into transportation systems provides opportunities for improving traffic prediction significantly and brings about new research problems. In order to lay the foundation for understanding the open research challenges in traffic prediction, this survey aims to provide a comprehensive overview of traffic prediction methodologies. Specifically, we focus on the recent advances and emerging research opportunities in Artificial Intelligence (AI)-based traffic prediction methods, due to their recent success and potential in traffic prediction, with an emphasis on multivariate traffic time series modeling. We first provide a list and explanation of the various data types and resources used in the literature. Next, the essential data preprocessing methods within the traffic prediction context are categorized, and the prediction methods and applications are subsequently summarized. Lastly, we present primary research challenges in traffic prediction and discuss some directions for future research.

A key component of model-based reinforcement learning (RL) is a dynamics model that predicts the outcomes of actions. Errors in this predictive model can degrade the performance of model-based controllers, and complex Markov decision processes (MDPs) can present exceptionally difficult prediction problems. To mitigate this issue, we propose predictable MDP abstraction (PMA): instead of training a predictive model on the original MDP, we train a model on a transformed MDP with a learned action space that only permits predictable, easy-to-model actions, while covering the original state-action space as much as possible. As a result, model learning becomes easier and more accurate, which allows robust, stable model-based planning or model-based RL. This transformation is learned in an unsupervised manner, before any task is specified by the user. Downstream tasks can then be solved with model-based control in a zero-shot fashion, without additional environment interactions. We theoretically analyze PMA and empirically demonstrate that PMA leads to significant improvements over prior unsupervised model-based RL approaches in a range of benchmark environments. Our code and videos are available at https://seohong.me/projects/pma/

This paper presents ATEM, a novel framework for studying topic evolution in scientific archives. ATEM is based on dynamic topic modeling and dynamic graph embedding techniques that explore the dynamics of content and citations of documents within a scientific corpus. ATEM explores a new notion of contextual emergence for the discovery of emerging interdisciplinary research topics based on the dynamics of citation links in topic clusters. Our experiments show that ATEM can efficiently detect emerging cross-disciplinary topics within the DBLP archive of over five million computer science articles.

Hit rate is a key performance metric in predicting process product quality in integrated industrial processes. It represents the percentage of products accepted by downstream processes within a controlled range of quality. However, optimizing hit rate is a non-convex and challenging problem. To address this issue, we propose a data-driven quasi-convex approach that combines factorial hidden Markov models, multitask elastic net, and quasi-convex optimization. Our approach converts the original non-convex problem into a set of convex feasible problems, achieving an optimal hit rate. We verify the convex optimization property and quasi-convex frontier through Monte Carlo simulations and real-world experiments in steel production. Results demonstrate that our approach outperforms classical models, improving hit rates by at least 41.11% and 31.01% on two real datasets. Furthermore, the quasi-convex frontier provides a reference explanation and visualization for the deterioration of solutions obtained by conventional models.

Existing user simulators (USs) for task-oriented dialogue systems only model user behaviour on semantic and natural language levels without considering the user persona and emotions. Optimising dialogue systems with generic user policies, which cannot model diverse user behaviour driven by different emotional states, may result in a high drop-off rate when deployed in the real world. Thus, we present EmoUS, a user simulator that learns to simulate user emotions alongside user behaviour. EmoUS generates user emotions, semantic actions, and natural language responses based on the user goal, the dialogue history, and the user persona. By analysing what kind of system behaviour elicits what kind of user emotions, we show that EmoUS can be used as a probe to evaluate a variety of dialogue systems and in particular their effect on the user's emotional state. Developing such methods is important in the age of large language model chat-bots and rising ethical concerns.

Embodied agents face significant challenges when tasked with performing actions in diverse environments, particularly in generalizing across object types and executing suitable actions to accomplish tasks. Furthermore, agents should exhibit robustness, minimizing the execution of illegal actions. In this work, we present Egocentric Planning, an innovative approach that combines symbolic planning and Object-oriented POMDPs to solve tasks in complex environments, harnessing existing models for visual perception and natural language processing. We evaluated our approach in ALFRED, a simulated environment designed for domestic tasks, and demonstrated its high scalability, achieving an impressive 36.07% unseen success rate in the ALFRED benchmark and winning the ALFRED challenge at CVPR Embodied AI workshop. Our method requires reliable perception and the specification or learning of a symbolic description of the preconditions and effects of the agent's actions, as well as what object types reveal information about others. It is capable of naturally scaling to solve new tasks beyond ALFRED, as long as they can be solved using the available skills. This work offers a solid baseline for studying end-to-end and hybrid methods that aim to generalize to new tasks, including recent approaches relying on LLMs, but often struggle to scale to long sequences of actions or produce robust plans for novel tasks.

The measure of a machine learning algorithm is the difficulty of the tasks it can perform, and sufficiently difficult tasks are critical drivers of strong machine learning models. However, quantifying the generalization difficulty of machine learning benchmarks has remained challenging. We propose what is to our knowledge the first model-agnostic measure of the inherent generalization difficulty of tasks. Our inductive bias complexity measure quantifies the total information required to generalize well on a task minus the information provided by the data. It does so by measuring the fractional volume occupied by hypotheses that generalize on a task given that they fit the training data. It scales exponentially with the intrinsic dimensionality of the space over which the model must generalize but only polynomially in resolution per dimension, showing that tasks which require generalizing over many dimensions are drastically more difficult than tasks involving more detail in fewer dimensions. Our measure can be applied to compute and compare supervised learning, reinforcement learning and meta-learning generalization difficulties against each other. We show that applied empirically, it formally quantifies intuitively expected trends, e.g. that in terms of required inductive bias, MNIST < CIFAR10 < Imagenet and fully observable Markov decision processes (MDPs) < partially observable MDPs. Further, we show that classification of complex images < few-shot meta-learning with simple images. Our measure provides a quantitative metric to guide the construction of more complex tasks requiring greater inductive bias, and thereby encourages the development of more sophisticated architectures and learning algorithms with more powerful generalization capabilities.

Addressing the challenge of scaling-up epidemiological inference to complex and heterogeneous models, we introduce Poisson Approximate Likelihood (PAL) methods. In contrast to the popular ODE approach to compartmental modelling, in which a large population limit is used to motivate a deterministic model, PALs are derived from approximate filtering equations for finite-population, stochastic compartmental models, and the large population limit drives consistency of maximum PAL estimators. Our theoretical results appear to be the first likelihood-based parameter estimation consistency results which apply to a broad class of partially observed stochastic compartmental models and address the large population limit. PALs are simple to implement, involving only elementary arithmetic operations and no tuning parameters, and fast to evaluate, requiring no simulation from the model and having computational cost independent of population size. Through examples we demonstrate how PALs can be used to: fit an age-structured model of influenza, taking advantage of automatic differentiation in Stan; compare over-dispersion mechanisms in a model of rotavirus by embedding PALs within sequential Monte Carlo; and evaluate the role of unit-specific parameters in a meta-population model of measles.

TD-learning is a fundamental algorithm in the field of reinforcement learning (RL), that is employed to evaluate a given policy by estimating the corresponding value function for a Markov decision process. While significant progress has been made in the theoretical analysis of TD-learning, recent research has uncovered guarantees concerning its statistical efficiency by developing finite-time error bounds. This paper aims to contribute to the existing body of knowledge by presenting a novel finite-time analysis of tabular temporal difference (TD) learning, which makes direct and effective use of discrete-time stochastic linear system models and leverages Schur matrix properties. The proposed analysis can cover both on-policy and off-policy settings in a unified manner. By adopting this approach, we hope to offer new and straightforward templates that not only shed further light on the analysis of TD-learning and related RL algorithms but also provide valuable insights for future research in this domain.