Markov Models
Enhancing Human Experience in Human-Agent Collaboration: A Human-Centered Modeling Approach Based on Positive Human Gain
Gao, Yiming, Liu, Feiyu, Wang, Liang, Lian, Zhenjie, Zheng, Dehua, Wang, Weixuan, Yang, Wenjin, Li, Siqin, Wang, Xianliang, Chen, Wenhui, Dai, Jing, Fu, Qiang, Yang, Wei, Huang, Lanxiao, Liu, Wei
Existing game AI research mainly focuses on enhancing agents' abilities to win games, but this does not inherently make humans have a better experience when collaborating with these agents. For example, agents may dominate the collaboration and exhibit unintended or detrimental behaviors, leading to poor experiences for their human partners. In other words, most game AI agents are modeled in a "self-centered" manner. In this paper, we propose a "human-centered" modeling scheme for collaborative agents that aims to enhance the experience of humans. Specifically, we model the experience of humans as the goals they expect to achieve during the task. We expect that agents should learn to enhance the extent to which humans achieve these goals while maintaining agents' original abilities (e.g., winning games). To achieve this, we propose the Reinforcement Learning from Human Gain (RLHG) approach. The RLHG approach introduces a "baseline", which corresponds to the extent to which humans primitively achieve their goals, and encourages agents to learn behaviors that can effectively enhance humans in achieving their goals better. We evaluate the RLHG agent in the popular Multi-player Online Battle Arena (MOBA) game, Honor of Kings, by conducting real-world human-agent tests. Both objective performance and subjective preference results show that the RLHG agent provides participants better gaming experience.
Attentive Convolutional Deep Reinforcement Learning for Optimizing Solar-Storage Systems in Real-Time Electricity Markets
Li, Jinhao, Wang, Changlong, Wang, Hao
This paper studies the synergy of solar-battery energy storage system (BESS) and develops a viable strategy for the BESS to unlock its economic potential by serving as a backup to reduce solar curtailments while also participating in the electricity market. We model the real-time bidding of the solar-battery system as two Markov decision processes for the solar farm and the BESS, respectively. We develop a novel deep reinforcement learning (DRL) algorithm to solve the problem by leveraging attention mechanism (AC) and multi-grained feature convolution to process DRL input for better bidding decisions. Simulation results demonstrate that our AC-DRL outperforms two optimization-based and one DRL-based benchmarks by generating 23%, 20%, and 11% higher revenue, as well as improving curtailment responses. The excess solar generation can effectively charge the BESS to bid in the market, significantly reducing solar curtailments by 76% and creating synergy for the solar-battery system to be more viable.
Rates of Convergence in the Central Limit Theorem for Markov Chains, with an Application to TD Learning
TD learning is the most widely studied algorithm for evaluating the performance of a given policy from data in Markov Decision Processes[1]. The convergence of TD learning with decaying stepsizes was proved in [2]. Over the last few years, there has been a resurgent interest in understanding the non-asymptotic convergence behavior of TD learning and further using it to study other other reinforcement algorithms which use TD learning within their framework. The first result of this type was obtained in [3] who used a projection step in their version of the TD learning algorithm. The first finite-time bounds for unprojected TD learning were obtained in [4], who studied both fixed step-sizes and decaying step-sizes.
Safe and Generalized end-to-end Autonomous Driving System with Reinforcement Learning and Demonstrations
Tang, Zuojin, Chen, Xiaoyu, Li, YongQiang, Chen, Jianyu
An intelligent driving system should be capable of dynamically formulating appropriate driving strategies based on the current environment and vehicle status, while ensuring the security and reliability of the system. However, existing methods based on reinforcement learning and imitation learning suffer from low safety, poor generalization, and inefficient sampling. Additionally, they cannot accurately predict future driving trajectories, and the accurate prediction of future driving trajectories is a precondition for making optimal decisions. To solve these problems, in this paper, we introduce a Safe and Generalized end-to-end Autonomous Driving System (SGADS) for complex and various scenarios. Our SGADS incorporates variational inference with normalizing flows, enabling the intelligent vehicle to accurately predict future driving trajectories. Moreover, we propose the formulation of robust safety constraints. Furthermore, we combine reinforcement learning with demonstrations to augment search process of the agent. The experimental results demonstrate that our SGADS can significantly improve safety performance, exhibit strong generalization, and enhance the training efficiency of intelligent vehicles in complex urban scenarios compared to existing methods.
Learning Online Belief Prediction for Efficient POMDP Planning in Autonomous Driving
Huang, Zhiyu, Tang, Chen, Lv, Chen, Tomizuka, Masayoshi, Zhan, Wei
Effective decision-making in autonomous driving relies on accurate inference of other traffic agents' future behaviors. To achieve this, we propose an online learning-based behavior prediction model and an efficient planner for Partially Observable Markov Decision Processes (POMDPs). We develop a learning-based prediction model, enhanced with a recurrent neural memory network, to dynamically update latent belief states and infer the intentions of other agents. The model can also integrate the ego vehicle's intentions to reflect closed-loop interactions among agents, and it learns from both offline data and online interactions. For planning, we employ an option-based Monte-Carlo Tree Search (MCTS) planner, which reduces computational complexity by searching over action sequences. Inside the MCTS planner, we use predicted long-term multi-modal trajectories to approximate future updates, which eliminates iterative belief updating and improves the running efficiency. Our approach also incorporates deep Q-learning (DQN) as a search prior, which significantly improves the performance of the MCTS planner. Experimental results from simulated environments validate the effectiveness of our proposed method. The online belief update model can significantly enhance the accuracy and temporal consistency of predictions, leading to improved decision-making performance. Employing DQN as a search prior in the MCTS planner considerably boosts its performance and outperforms an imitation learning-based prior. Additionally, we show that the option-based MCTS substantially outperforms the vanilla method in terms of performance and efficiency.
Dynamic Fault Analysis in Substations Based on Knowledge Graphs
Li, Weiwei, Liu, Xing, Wang, Wei, Chen, Lu, Li, Sizhe, Fan, Hui
To address the challenge of identifying hidden danger in substations from unstructured text, a novel dynamic analysis method is proposed. We first extract relevant information from the unstructured text, and then leverages a flexible distributed search engine built on Elastic-Search to handle the data. Following this, the hidden Markov model is employed to train the data within the engine. The Viterbi algorithm is integrated to decipher the hidden state sequences, facilitating the segmentation and labeling of entities related to hidden dangers. The final step involves using the Neo4j graph database to dynamically create a knowledge graph that visualizes hidden dangers in the substation. The effectiveness of the proposed method is demonstrated through a case analysis from a specific substation with hidden dangers revealed in the text records.
Simplifying Complex Observation Models in Continuous POMDP Planning with Probabilistic Guarantees and Practice
Lev-Yehudi, Idan, Barenboim, Moran, Indelman, Vadim
Solving partially observable Markov decision processes (POMDPs) with high dimensional and continuous observations, such as camera images, is required for many real life robotics and planning problems. Recent researches suggested machine learned probabilistic models as observation models, but their use is currently too computationally expensive for online deployment. We deal with the question of what would be the implication of using simplified observation models for planning, while retaining formal guarantees on the quality of the solution. Our main contribution is a novel probabilistic bound based on a statistical total variation distance of the simplified model. We show that it bounds the theoretical POMDP value w.r.t. original model, from the empirical planned value with the simplified model, by generalizing recent results of particle-belief MDP concentration bounds. Our calculations can be separated into offline and online parts, and we arrive at formal guarantees without having to access the costly model at all during planning, which is also a novel result. Finally, we demonstrate in simulation how to integrate the bound into the routine of an existing continuous online POMDP solver.
Particle-MALA and Particle-mGRAD: Gradient-based MCMC methods for high-dimensional state-space models
Corenflos, Adrien, Finke, Axel
State-of-the-art methods for Bayesian inference in state-space models are (a) conditional sequential Monte Carlo (CSMC) algorithms; (b) sophisticated 'classical' MCMC algorithms like MALA, or mGRAD from Titsias and Papaspiliopoulos (2018, arXiv:1610.09641v3 [stat.ML]). The former propose $N$ particles at each time step to exploit the model's 'decorrelation-over-time' property and thus scale favourably with the time horizon, $T$ , but break down if the dimension of the latent states, $D$, is large. The latter leverage gradient-/prior-informed local proposals to scale favourably with $D$ but exhibit sub-optimal scalability with $T$ due to a lack of model-structure exploitation. We introduce methods which combine the strengths of both approaches. The first, Particle-MALA, spreads $N$ particles locally around the current state using gradient information, thus extending MALA to $T > 1$ time steps and $N > 1$ proposals. The second, Particle-mGRAD, additionally incorporates (conditionally) Gaussian prior dynamics into the proposal, thus extending the mGRAD algorithm to $T > 1$ time steps and $N > 1$ proposals. We prove that Particle-mGRAD interpolates between CSMC and Particle-MALA, resolving the 'tuning problem' of choosing between CSMC (superior for highly informative prior dynamics) and Particle-MALA (superior for weakly informative prior dynamics). We similarly extend other 'classical' MCMC approaches like auxiliary MALA, aGRAD, and preconditioned Crank-Nicolson-Langevin (PCNL) to $T > 1$ time steps and $N > 1$ proposals. In experiments, for both highly and weakly informative prior dynamics, our methods substantially improve upon both CSMC and sophisticated 'classical' MCMC approaches.
Fully Independent Communication in Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning
Pina, Rafael, De Silva, Varuna, Artaud, Corentin, Liu, Xiaolan
Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning (MARL) comprises a broad area of research within the field of multi-agent systems. Several recent works have focused specifically on the study of communication approaches in MARL. While multiple communication methods have been proposed, these might still be too complex and not easily transferable to more practical contexts. One of the reasons for that is due to the use of the famous parameter sharing trick. In this paper, we investigate how independent learners in MARL that do not share parameters can communicate. We demonstrate that this setting might incur into some problems, to which we propose a new learning scheme as a solution. Our results show that, despite the challenges, independent agents can still learn communication strategies following our method. Additionally, we use this method to investigate how communication in MARL is affected by different network capacities, both for sharing and not sharing parameters. We observe that communication may not always be needed and that the chosen agent network sizes need to be considered when used together with communication in order to achieve efficient learning.
Discovering group dynamics in synchronous time series via hierarchical recurrent switching-state models
Wojnowicz, Michael, Rath, Preetish, Miller, Eric, Miller, Jeffrey, Hancock, Clifford, O'Donovan, Meghan, Elkin-Frankston, Seth, Brunye, Thaddeus, Hughes, Michael C.
We seek to model a collection of time series arising from multiple entities interacting over the same time period. Recent work focused on modeling individual time series is inadequate for our intended applications, where collective system-level behavior influences the trajectories of individual entities. To address such problems, we present a new hierarchical switching-state model that can be trained in an unsupervised fashion to simultaneously explain both system-level and individual-level dynamics. We employ a latent system-level discrete state Markov chain that drives latent entity-level chains which in turn govern the dynamics of each observed time series. Feedback from the observations to the chains at both the entity and system levels improves flexibility via context-dependent state transitions. Our hierarchical switching recurrent dynamical models can be learned via closed-form variational coordinate ascent updates to all latent chains that scale linearly in the number of individual time series. This is asymptotically no more costly than fitting separate models for each entity. Experiments on synthetic and real datasets show that our model can produce better forecasts of future entity behavior than existing methods. Moreover, the availability of latent state chains at both the entity and system level enables interpretation of group dynamics.