Markov Models
Multi-Modal 3D Scene Graph Updater for Shared and Dynamic Environments
Olivastri, Emilio, Francis, Jonathan, Pretto, Alberto, Sünderhauf, Niko, Rana, Krishan
The advent of generalist Large Language Models (LLMs) and Large Vision Models (VLMs) have streamlined the construction of semantically enriched maps that can enable robots to ground high-level reasoning and planning into their representations. One of the most widely used semantic map formats is the 3D Scene Graph, which captures both metric (low-level) and semantic (high-level) information. However, these maps often assume a static world, while real environments, like homes and offices, are dynamic. Even small changes in these spaces can significantly impact task performance. To integrate robots into dynamic environments, they must detect changes and update the scene graph in real-time. This update process is inherently multimodal, requiring input from various sources, such as human agents, the robot's own perception system, time, and its actions. This work proposes a framework that leverages these multimodal inputs to maintain the consistency of scene graphs during real-time operation, presenting promising initial results and outlining a roadmap for future research.
Distributionally Robust Optimization
Kuhn, Daniel, Shafiee, Soroosh, Wiesemann, Wolfram
With its early roots in the development of calculus by Isaac Newton, Gottfried Wilhelm Leibniz, Pierre de Ferma t and others in the late 17th century, mathematical optimization has a rich his tory that involves contributions from numerous mathematicians, economists, eng ineers, and scientists. The birth of modern mathematical optimization is commonly c redited to George Dantzig, whose simplex algorithm developed in 1947 solves l inear optimization problems where ℓ is affine and X is a polyhedron ( Dantzig 1956). Subsequent milestones include the development of the rich theory of convex a nalysis ( Rockafellar 1970) as well as the discovery of polynomial-time solution metho ds for linear ( Khachiyan 1979, Karmarkar 1984) and broad classes of nonlinear convex optimization problems ( Nesterov and Nemirovskii 1994). Classical optimization problems are deterministic, that is, all problem data are assumed to be known with certainty. However, most decision pro blems encountered in practice depend on parameters that are corrupted by measu rement errors or that are revealed only after a decision must be determined and committed. A naïve approach to model uncertainty-affected decision problems a s deterministic optimization problems would be to replace all uncertain paramete rs with their expected values or with appropriate point predictions. However, it h as long been known and well-documented that decision-makers who replace an un certain parameter of an optimization problem with its mean value fall victim to th e'flaw of averages' ( Savage, Scholtes and Zweidler 2006, Savage 2012).
Positive Experience Reflection for Agents in Interactive Text Environments
Lippmann, Philip, Spaan, Matthijs T. J., Yang, Jie
Intelligent agents designed for interactive environments face significant challenges in text-based games, a domain that demands complex reasoning and adaptability. While agents based on large language models (LLMs) using self-reflection have shown promise, they struggle when initially successful and exhibit reduced effectiveness when using smaller LLMs. We introduce Sweet&Sour, a novel approach that addresses these limitations in existing reflection methods by incorporating positive experiences and managed memory to enrich the context available to the agent at decision time. Our comprehensive analysis spans both closed- and open-source LLMs and demonstrates the effectiveness of Sweet&Sour in improving agent performance, particularly in scenarios where previous approaches fall short.
When to Localize? A Risk-Constrained Reinforcement Learning Approach
Shek, Chak Lam, Torshizi, Kasra, Williams, Troi, Tokekar, Pratap
In a standard navigation pipeline, a robot localizes at every time step to lower navigational errors. However, in some scenarios, a robot needs to selectively localize when it is expensive to obtain observations. For example, an underwater robot surfacing to localize too often hinders it from searching for critical items underwater, such as black boxes from crashed aircraft. On the other hand, if the robot never localizes, poor state estimates cause failure to find the items due to inadvertently leaving the search area or entering hazardous, restricted areas. Motivated by these scenarios, we investigate approaches to help a robot determine "when to localize?" We formulate this as a bi-criteria optimization problem: minimize the number of localization actions while ensuring the probability of failure (due to collision or not reaching a desired goal) remains bounded. In recent work, we showed how to formulate this active localization problem as a constrained Partially Observable Markov Decision Process (POMDP), which was solved using an online POMDP solver. However, this approach is too slow and requires full knowledge of the robot transition and observation models. In this paper, we present RiskRL, a constrained Reinforcement Learning (RL) framework that overcomes these limitations. RiskRL uses particle filtering and recurrent Soft Actor-Critic network to learn a policy that minimizes the number of localizations while ensuring the probability of failure constraint is met. Our numerical experiments show that RiskRL learns a robust policy that outperforms the baseline by at least 13% while also generalizing to unseen environments.
CRMArena: Understanding the Capacity of LLM Agents to Perform Professional CRM Tasks in Realistic Environments
Huang, Kung-Hsiang, Prabhakar, Akshara, Dhawan, Sidharth, Mao, Yixin, Wang, Huan, Savarese, Silvio, Xiong, Caiming, Laban, Philippe, Wu, Chien-Sheng
Customer Relationship Management (CRM) systems are vital for modern enterprises, providing a foundation for managing customer interactions and data. Integrating AI agents into CRM systems can automate routine processes and enhance personalized service. However, deploying and evaluating these agents is challenging due to the lack of realistic benchmarks that reflect the complexity of real-world CRM tasks. To address this issue, we introduce CRMArena, a novel benchmark designed to evaluate AI agents on realistic tasks grounded in professional work environments. Following guidance from CRM experts and industry best practices, we designed CRMArena with nine customer service tasks distributed across three personas: service agent, analyst, and manager. The benchmark includes 16 commonly used industrial objects (e.g., account, order, knowledge article, case) with high interconnectivity, along with latent variables (e.g., complaint habits, policy violations) to simulate realistic data distributions. Experimental results reveal that state-of-the-art LLM agents succeed in less than 40% of the tasks with ReAct prompting, and less than 55% even with function-calling abilities. Our findings highlight the need for enhanced agent capabilities in function-calling and rule-following to be deployed in real-world work environments. CRMArena is an open challenge to the community: systems that can reliably complete tasks showcase direct business value in a popular work environment.
Compositional simulation-based inference for time series
Gloeckler, Manuel, Toyota, Shoji, Fukumizu, Kenji, Macke, Jakob H.
Amortized simulation-based inference (SBI) methods train neural networks on simulated data to perform Bayesian inference. While this approach avoids the need for tractable likelihoods, it often requires a large number of simulations and has been challenging to scale to time-series data. Scientific simulators frequently emulate real-world dynamics through thousands of single-state transitions over time. We propose an SBI framework that can exploit such Markovian simulators by locally identifying parameters consistent with individual state transitions. We then compose these local results to obtain a posterior over parameters that align with the entire time series observation. We focus on applying this approach to neural posterior score estimation but also show how it can be applied, e.g., to neural likelihood (ratio) estimation. We demonstrate that our approach is more simulation-efficient than directly estimating the global posterior on several synthetic benchmark tasks and simulators used in ecology and epidemiology. Numerical simulations are a central approach for tackling problems in a wide range of scientific and engineering disciplines, including physics (Brehmer & Cranmer, 2022; Dax et al., 2021), molecular dynamics (Hollingsworth & Dror, 2018), neuroscience (Gonçalves et al., 2020) and climate science (Watson-Parris et al., 2021). Simulators often include at least some parameters that cannot be measured experimentally. Inferring such parameters from observed data is a fundamental challenge. Bayesian inference provides a principled approach to identifying parameters that align with empirical observations. Standard algorithms for Bayesian inference, such as Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) (Gilks et al., 1995) and variational inference (Beal, 2003), generally require access to the likelihoods p(x|θ). However, for many simulators, directly evaluating the likelihood remains intractable, rendering conventional Bayesian approaches inapplicable.
DeeR-VLA: Dynamic Inference of Multimodal Large Language Models for Efficient Robot Execution
Yue, Yang, Wang, Yulin, Kang, Bingyi, Han, Yizeng, Wang, Shenzhi, Song, Shiji, Feng, Jiashi, Huang, Gao
MLLMs have demonstrated remarkable comprehension and reasoning capabilities with complex language and visual data. These advances have spurred the vision of establishing a generalist robotic MLLM proficient in understanding complex human instructions and accomplishing various embodied tasks. However, developing MLLMs for real-world robots is challenging due to the typically limited computation and memory capacities available on robotic platforms. In contrast, the inference of MLLMs involves storing billions of parameters and performing tremendous computation, imposing significant hardware demands. In our paper, we propose a Dynamic Early-Exit Framework for Robotic Vision-Language-Action Model (DeeR-VLA, or simply DeeR) that automatically adjusts the size of the activated MLLM based on each situation at hand. The approach leverages a multi-exit architecture in MLLMs, which allows the model to terminate processing once a proper size of the model has been activated for a specific situation, thus avoiding further redundant computation. Additionally, we develop novel algorithms that establish early-termination criteria for DeeR, conditioned on predefined demands such as average computational cost (i.e., power consumption), as well as peak computational consumption (i.e., latency) and GPU memory usage. These enhancements ensure that DeeR operates efficiently under varying resource constraints while maintaining competitive performance. On the CALVIN robot manipulation benchmark, DeeR demonstrates significant reductions in computational costs of LLM by 5.2-6.5x and GPU memory of LLM by 2-6x without compromising performance. Code and checkpoints are available at https://github.com/yueyang130/DeeR-VLA.
Behavioral Sequence Modeling with Ensemble Learning
Kawawa-Beaudan, Maxime, Sood, Srijan, Palande, Soham, Mani, Ganapathy, Balch, Tucker, Veloso, Manuela
We investigate the use of sequence analysis for behavior modeling, emphasizing that sequential context often outweighs the value of aggregate features in understanding human behavior. We discuss framing common problems in fields like healthcare, finance, and e-commerce as sequence modeling tasks, and address challenges related to constructing coherent sequences from fragmented data and disentangling complex behavior patterns. We present a framework for sequence modeling using Ensembles of Hidden Markov Models, which are lightweight, interpretable, and efficient. Our ensemble-based scoring method enables robust comparison across sequences of different lengths and enhances performance in scenarios with imbalanced or scarce data. The framework scales in real-world scenarios, is compatible with downstream feature-based modeling, and is applicable in both supervised and unsupervised learning settings. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our method with results on a longitudinal human behavior dataset.
Low-Rank Tensors for Multi-Dimensional Markov Models
Navarro, Madeline, Rozada, Sergio, Marques, Antonio G., Segarra, Santiago
This work presents a low-rank tensor model for multi-dimensional Markov chains. A common approach to simplify the dynamical behavior of a Markov chain is to impose low-rankness on the transition probability matrix. Inspired by the success of these matrix techniques, we present low-rank tensors for representing transition probabilities on multi-dimensional state spaces. Through tensor decomposition, we provide a connection between our method and classical probabilistic models. Moreover, our proposed model yields a parsimonious representation with fewer parameters than matrix-based approaches. Unlike these methods, which impose low-rankness uniformly across all states, our tensor method accounts for the multi-dimensionality of the state space. We also propose an optimization-based approach to estimate a Markov model as a low-rank tensor. Our optimization problem can be solved by the alternating direction method of multipliers (ADMM), which enjoys convergence to a stationary solution. We empirically demonstrate that our tensor model estimates Markov chains more efficiently than conventional techniques, requiring both fewer samples and parameters. We perform numerical simulations for both a synthetic low-rank Markov chain and a real-world example with New York City taxi data, showcasing the advantages of multi-dimensionality for modeling state spaces.
RoboCrowd: Scaling Robot Data Collection through Crowdsourcing
Mirchandani, Suvir, Yuan, David D., Burns, Kaylee, Islam, Md Sazzad, Zhao, Tony Z., Finn, Chelsea, Sadigh, Dorsa
In recent years, imitation learning from large-scale human demonstrations has emerged as a promising paradigm for training robot policies. However, the burden of collecting large quantities of human demonstrations is significant in terms of collection time and the need for access to expert operators. We introduce a new data collection paradigm, RoboCrowd, which distributes the workload by utilizing crowdsourcing principles and incentive design. RoboCrowd helps enable scalable data collection and facilitates more efficient learning of robot policies. We build RoboCrowd on top of ALOHA (Zhao et al. 2023) -- a bimanual platform that supports data collection via puppeteering -- to explore the design space for crowdsourcing in-person demonstrations in a public environment. We propose three classes of incentive mechanisms to appeal to users' varying sources of motivation for interacting with the system: material rewards, intrinsic interest, and social comparison. We instantiate these incentives through tasks that include physical rewards, engaging or challenging manipulations, as well as gamification elements such as a leaderboard. We conduct a large-scale, two-week field experiment in which the platform is situated in a university cafe. We observe significant engagement with the system -- over 200 individuals independently volunteered to provide a total of over 800 interaction episodes. Our findings validate the proposed incentives as mechanisms for shaping users' data quantity and quality. Further, we demonstrate that the crowdsourced data can serve as useful pre-training data for policies fine-tuned on expert demonstrations -- boosting performance up to 20% compared to when this data is not available. These results suggest the potential for RoboCrowd to reduce the burden of robot data collection by carefully implementing crowdsourcing and incentive design principles.