The correlation between events is ubiquitous and important for temporal events modelling. In many cases, the correlation exists between not only events' emitted observations, but also their arrival times. State space models (e.g., hidden Markov model) and stochastic interaction point process models (e.g., Hawkes process) have been studied extensively yet separately for the two types of correlations in the past. In this paper, we propose a Bayesian nonparametric approach that considers both types of correlations via unifying and generalizing the hidden semiMarkov model and interaction point process model. The proposed approach can simultaneously model both the observations and arrival times of temporal events, and automatically determine the number of latent states from data.

We study the problem of reconstructing a mixture of Markov chains from the trajectories generated by random walks through the state space. Under mild nondegeneracy conditions, we show that we can uniquely reconstruct the underlying chains by only considering trajectories of length three, which represent triples of states. Our algorithm is spectral in nature, and is easy to implement.

Neural Information Processing Systems http://nips.cc/

Neural Information Processing Systems http://nips.cc/

Factorial Hidden Markov Models (FHMMs) are powerful models for sequential data but they do not scale well with long sequences. We propose a scalable inference and learning algorithm for FHMMs that draws on ideas from the stochastic variational inference, neural network and copula literatures. Unlike existing approaches, the proposed algorithm requires no message passing procedure among latent variables and can be distributed to a network of computers to speed up learning. Our experiments corroborate that the proposed algorithm does not introduce further approximation bias compared to the proven structured mean-field algorithm, and achieves better performance with long sequences and large FHMMs.

You are a robot and you live in a Markov decision process (MDP) with a finite or an infinite number of transitions from state-action to next states. You got brains and so you plan before you act. Luckily, your roboparents equipped you with a generative model to do some Monte-Carlo planning. The world is waiting for you and you have no time to waste. You want your planning to be efficient.

Boltzmann machines are able to learn highly complex, multimodal, structured and multiscale real-world data distributions. Parameters of the model are usually learned by minimizing the Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence from training samples to the learned model. We propose in this work a novel approach for Boltzmann machine training which assumes that a meaningful metric between observations is known. This metric between observations can then be used to define the Wasserstein distance between the distribution induced by the Boltzmann machine on the one hand, and that given by the training sample on the other hand. We derive a gradient of that distance with respect to the model parameters. Minimization of this new objective leads to generative models with different statistical properties. We demonstrate their practical potential on data completion and denoising, for which the metric between observations plays a crucial role.

Neural Information Processing Systems http://nips.cc/

Matching users to the right items at the right time is a fundamental task in recommendation systems. As users interact with different items over time, users' and items' feature may evolve and co-evolve over time. Traditional models based on static latent features or discretizing time into epochs can become ineffective for capturing the fine-grained temporal dynamics in the user-item interactions. We propose a coevolutionary latent feature process model that accurately captures the coevolving nature of users' and items' feature. To learn parameters, we design an efficient convex optimization algorithm with a novel low rank space sharing constraints. Extensive experiments on diverse real-world datasets demonstrate significant improvements in user behavior prediction compared to state-of-the-arts.

Neural Information Processing Systems http://nips.cc/