Estimating the per-state expected cumulative rewards is a critical aspect of reinforcement learning approaches, however the experience is obtained, but standard deep neural-network function-approximation methods are often inefficient in this setting. An alternative approach, exemplified by value iteration networks, is to learn transition and reward models of a latent Markov decision process whose value predictions fit the data. This approach has been shown empirically to converge faster to a more robust solution in many cases, but there has been little theoretical study of this phenomenon. In this paper, we explore such implicit representations of value functions via theory and focused experimentation. We prove that, for a linear parametrization, gradient descent converges to global optima despite nonlinearity and non-convexity introduced by the implicit representation. Furthermore, we derive convergence rates for both cases which allow us to identify conditions under which stochastic gradient descent (SGD) with this implicit representation converges substantially faster than its explicit counterpart. Finally, we provide empirical results in some simple domains that illustrate the theoretical findings.

Learning world models from their sensory inputs enables agents to plan for actions by imagining their future outcomes. World models have previously been shown to improve sample-efficiency in simulated environments with few objects, but have not yet been applied successfully to environments with many objects. In environments with many objects, often only a small number of them are moving or interacting at the same time. In this paper, we investigate integrating this inductive bias of sparse interactions into the latent dynamics of world models trained from pixels. First, we introduce Variational Sparse Gating (VSG), a latent dynamics model that updates its feature dimensions sparsely through stochastic binary gates. Moreover, we propose a simplified architecture Simple Variational Sparse Gating (SVSG) that removes the deterministic pathway of previous models, resulting in a fully stochastic transition function that leverages the VSG mechanism. We evaluate the two model architectures in the BringBackShapes (BBS) environment that features a large number of moving objects and partial observability, demonstrating clear improvements over prior models.

Graphs have been commonly used to represent complex data structures. In models dealing with graph-structured data, multivariate parameters may not only exhibit sparse patterns but have structured sparsity and smoothness in the sense that both zero and non-zero parameters tend to cluster together. We propose a new prior for high-dimensional parameters with graphical relations, referred to as the Treebased Low-rank Horseshoe (T-LoHo) model, that generalizes the popular univariate Bayesian horseshoe shrinkage prior to the multivariate setting to detect structured sparsity and smoothness simultaneously. The T-LoHo prior can be embedded in many high-dimensional hierarchical models. To illustrate its utility, we apply it to regularize a Bayesian high-dimensional regression problem where the regression coefficients are linked by a graph, so that the resulting clusters have flexible shapes and satisfy the cluster contiguity constraint with respect to the graph. We design an efficient Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm that delivers full Bayesian inference with uncertainty measures for model parameters such as the number of clusters. We offer theoretical investigations of the clustering effects and posterior concentration results. Finally, we illustrate the performance of the model with simulation studies and a real data application for anomaly detection on a road network. The results indicate substantial improvements over other competing methods such as the sparse fused lasso.

Much of reinforcement learning theory is built on top of oracles that are computationally hard to implement. Specifically for learning near-optimal policies in Partially Observable Markov Decision Processes (POMDPs), existing algorithms either need to make strong assumptions about the model dynamics (e.g.

Much of reinforcement learning theory is built on top of oracles that are computationally hard to implement. Specifically for learning near-optimal policies in Partially Observable Markov Decision Processes (POMDPs), existing algorithms either need to make strong assumptions about the model dynamics (e.g.

We show that Deep Neural Networks introduce two heteroscedastic Gumbel noise sources into Q-Learning. To account for these noise sources, we propose Double Gumbel Q-Learning, a Deep Q-Learning algorithm applicable for both discrete and continuous control. In discrete control, we derive a closed-form expression for the loss function of our algorithm. In continuous control, this loss function is intractable and we therefore derive an approximation with a hyperparameter whose value regulates pessimism in Q-Learning. We present a default value for our pessimism hyperparameter that enables DoubleGum to outperform DDPG, TD3, SAC, XQL, quantile regression, and Mixture-of-Gaussian Critics in aggregate over 33 tasks from DeepMind Control, MuJoCo, MetaWorld, and Box2D and show that tuning this hyperparameter may further improve sample efficiency.

We present an exact Bayesian inference method for discrete statistical models, which can find exact solutions to a large class of discrete inference problems, even with infinite support and continuous priors. To express such models, we introduce a probabilistic programming language that supports discrete and continuous sampling, discrete observations, affine functions, (stochastic) branching, and conditioning on discrete events. Our key tool is probability generating functions: they provide a compact closed-form representation of distributions that are definable by programs, thus enabling the exact computation of posterior probabilities, expectation, variance, and higher moments. Our inference method is provably correct and fully automated in a tool called Genfer, which uses automatic differentiation (specifically, Taylor polynomials), but does not require computer algebra. Our experiments show that Genfer is often faster than the existing exact inference tools PSI, Dice, and Prodigy. On a range of real-world inference problems that none of these exact tools can solve, Genfer's performance is competitive with approximate Monte Carlo methods, while avoiding approximation errors.

We study the problem of off-policy evaluation (OPE) for episodic Partially Observable Markov Decision Processes (POMDPs) with continuous states. Motivated by the recently proposed proximal causal inference framework, we develop a non-parametric identification result for estimating the policy value via a sequence of so-called V-bridge functions with the help of time-dependent proxy variables. We then develop a fitted-Q-evaluation-type algorithm to estimate V-bridge functions recursively, where a non-parametric instrumental variable (NPIV) problem is solved at each step. By analyzing this challenging sequential NPIV problem, we establish the finite-sample error bounds for estimating the V-bridge functions and accordingly that for evaluating the policy value, in terms of the sample size, length of horizon and so-called (local) measure of ill-posedness at each step. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first finite-sample error bound for OPE in POMDPs under non-parametric models.