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 Markov Models


Bounomodes: the grazing ox algorithm for exploration of clustered anomalies

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

A common class of algorithms for informative path planning (IPP) follows boustrophedon ("as the ox turns") patterns, which aim to achieve uniform area coverage. However, IPP is often applied in scenarios where anomalies, such as plant diseases, pollution, or hurricane damage, appear in clusters. In such cases, prioritizing the exploration of anomalous regions over uniform coverage is beneficial. This work introduces a class of algorithms referred to as bounomลdes ("as the ox grazes"), which alternates between uniform boustrophedon sampling and targeted exploration of detected anomaly clusters. While uniform sampling can be designed using geometric principles, close exploration of clusters depends on the spatial distribution of anomalies and must be learned. In our implementation, the close exploration behavior is learned using deep reinforcement learning algorithms. Experimental evaluations demonstrate that the proposed approach outperforms several established baselines.


An Optimisation Framework for Unsupervised Environment Design

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

For reinforcement learning agents to be deployed in high-risk settings, they must achieve a high level of robustness to unfamiliar scenarios. One approach for improving robustness is unsupervised environment design (UED), a suite of methods that aim to maximise an agent's generalisability by training it on a wide variety of environment configurations. In this work, we study UED from an optimisation perspective, providing stronger theoretical guarantees for practical settings than prior work. Whereas previous methods relied on guarantees if they reach convergence, our framework employs a nonconvex-strongly-concave objective for which we provide a provably convergent algorithm in the zero-sum setting. We empirically verify the efficacy of our method, outperforming prior methods on two of three environments with varying difficulties.


Adaptive Elicitation of Latent Information Using Natural Language

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Eliciting information to reduce uncertainty about a latent entity is a critical task in many application domains, e.g., assessing individual student learning outcomes, diagnosing underlying diseases, or learning user preferences. Though natural language is a powerful medium for this purpose, large language models (LLMs) and existing fine-tuning algorithms lack mechanisms for strategically gathering information to refine their own understanding of the latent entity. To harness the generalization power and world knowledge of LLMs in developing effective information-gathering strategies, we propose an adaptive elicitation framework that actively reduces uncertainty on the latent entity. Since probabilistic modeling of an abstract latent entity is difficult, our framework adopts a predictive view of uncertainty, using a meta-learned language model to simulate future observations and enable scalable uncertainty quantification over complex natural language. Through autoregressive forward simulation, our model quantifies how new questions reduce epistemic uncertainty, enabling the development of sophisticated information-gathering strategies to choose the most informative next queries. In experiments on the 20 questions game, dynamic opinion polling, and adaptive student assessment, our method consistently outperforms baselines in identifying critical unknowns and improving downstream predictions, illustrating the promise of strategic information gathering in natural language settings.


Exploring LLMs for Predicting Tutor Strategy and Student Outcomes in Dialogues

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Tutoring dialogues have gained significant attention in recent years, given the prominence of online learning and the emerging tutoring abilities of artificial intelligence (AI) agents powered by large language models (LLMs). Recent studies have shown that the strategies used by tutors can have significant effects on student outcomes, necessitating methods to predict how tutors will behave and how their actions impact students. However, few works have studied predicting tutor strategy in dialogues. Therefore, in this work we investigate the ability of modern LLMs, particularly Llama 3 and GPT-4o, to predict both future tutor moves and student outcomes in dialogues, using two math tutoring dialogue datasets. We find that even state-of-the-art LLMs struggle to predict future tutor strategy while tutor strategy is highly indicative of student outcomes, outlining a need for more powerful methods to approach this task.


Preemptive Solving of Future Problems: Multitask Preplay in Humans and Machines

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Humans can pursue a near-infinite variety of tasks, but typically can only pursue a small number at the same time. We hypothesize that humans leverage experience on one task to preemptively learn solutions to other tasks that were accessible but not pursued. We formalize this idea as Multitask Preplay, a novel algorithm that replays experience on one task as the starting point for "preplay" -- counterfactual simulation of an accessible but unpursued task. Preplay is used to learn a predictive representation that can support fast, adaptive task performance later on. We first show that, compared to traditional planning and predictive representation methods, multitask preplay better predicts how humans generalize to tasks that were accessible but not pursued in a small grid-world, even when people didn't know they would need to generalize to these tasks. We then show these predictions generalize to Craftax, a partially observable 2D Minecraft environment. Finally, we show that Multitask Preplay enables artificial agents to learn behaviors that transfer to novel Craftax worlds sharing task co-occurrence structure. These findings demonstrate that Multitask Preplay is a scalable theory of how humans counterfactually learn and generalize across multiple tasks; endowing artificial agents with the same capacity can significantly improve their performance in challenging multitask environments.


Online Regularized Learning Algorithms in RKHS with $ฮฒ$- and $ฯ•$-Mixing Sequences

arXiv.org Machine Learning

In this paper, we study an online regularized learning algorithm in a reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces (RKHS) based on a class of dependent processes. We choose such a process where the degree of dependence is measured by mixing coefficients. As a representative example, we analyze a strictly stationary Markov chain, where the dependence structure is characterized by the \(ฯ•\)- and \(ฮฒ\)-mixing coefficients. Under these assumptions, we derive probabilistic upper bounds as well as convergence rates for both the exponential and polynomial decay of the mixing coefficients.


Bit-Flip Fault Attack: Crushing Graph Neural Networks via Gradual Bit Search

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) have emerged as a powerful machine learning method for graph-structured data. A plethora of hardware accelerators has been introduced to meet the performance demands of GNNs in real-world applications. However, security challenges of hardware-based attacks have been generally overlooked. In this paper, we investigate the vulnerability of GNN models to hardware-based fault attack, wherein an attacker attempts to misclassify output by modifying trained weight parameters through fault injection in a memory device. Thus, we propose Gradual Bit-Flip Fault Attack (GBFA), a layer-aware bit-flip fault attack, selecting a vulnerable bit in each selected weight gradually to compromise the GNN's performance by flipping a minimal number of bits. To achieve this, GBFA operates in two steps. First, a Markov model is created to predict the execution sequence of layers based on features extracted from memory access patterns, enabling the launch of the attack within a specific layer. Subsequently, GBFA identifies vulnerable bits within the selected weights using gradient ranking through an in-layer search. We evaluate the effectiveness of the proposed GBFA attack on various GNN models for node classification tasks using the Cora and PubMed datasets. Our findings show that GBFA significantly degrades prediction accuracy, and the variation in its impact across different layers highlights the importance of adopting a layer-aware attack strategy in GNNs. For example, GBFA degrades GraphSAGE's prediction accuracy by 17% on the Cora dataset with only a single bit flip in the last layer.


Origin-Destination Pattern Effects on Large-Scale Mixed Traffic Control via Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

--Traffic congestion remains a major challenge for modern urban transportation, diminishing both efficiency and quality of life. While autonomous driving technologies and reinforcement learning (RL) have shown promise for improving traffic control, most prior work has focused on small-scale networks or isolated intersections. Large-scale mixed traffic control, involving both human-driven and robotic vehicles, remains underexplored. In this study, we propose a decentralized multi-agent reinforcement learning framework for managing large-scale mixed traffic networks, where intersections are controlled either by traditional traffic signals or by robotic vehicles. We evaluate our approach on a real-world network of 14 intersections in Colorado Springs, Colorado, USA, using average vehicle waiting time as the primary measure of traffic efficiency. We are exploring a problem that has not been sufficiently addressed: Is large-scale Multi-Agent Traffic Control (MTC) still feasible when facing time-varying Origin-Destination (OD) patterns?


Learning-Augmented Model-Based Multi-Robot Planning for Time-Critical Search and Inspection Under Uncertainty

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

-- In disaster response or surveillance operations, quickly identifying areas needing urgent attention is critical, but deploying response teams to every location is inefficient or often impossible. Effective performance in this domain requires coordinating a multi-robot inspection team to prioritize inspecting locations more likely to need immediate response, while also minimizing travel time. This is particularly challenging because robots must directly observe the locations to determine which ones require additional attention. This work introduces a multi-robot planning framework for coordinated time-critical multi-robot search under uncertainty. Our approach uses a graph neural network to estimate the likelihood of PoIs needing attention from noisy sensor data and then uses those predictions to guide a multi-robot model-based planner to determine the cost-effective plan. Simulated experiments demonstrate that our planner improves performance at least by 16.3%, 26.7%, and 26.2% for 1, 3, and 5 robots, respectively, compared to non-learned and learned baselines. In scenarios like disaster aftermath inspection or critical surveillance operations, quickly traveling to and inspecting affected areas is crucial for an efficient response.


From General Relation Patterns to Task-Specific Decision-Making in Continual Multi-Agent Coordination

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Continual Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning (Co-MARL) requires agents to address catastrophic forgetting issues while learning new coordination policies with the dynamics team. In this paper, we delve into the core of Co-MARL, namely Relation Patterns, which refer to agents' general understanding of interactions. In addition to generality, relation patterns exhibit task-specificity when mapped to different action spaces. To this end, we propose a novel method called General Relation Patterns-Guided Task-Specific Decision-Maker (RPG). In RPG, agents extract relation patterns from dynamic observation spaces using a relation capturer. These task-agnostic relation patterns are then mapped to different action spaces via a task-specific decision-maker generated by a conditional hypernetwork. To combat forgetting, we further introduce regularization items on both the relation capturer and the conditional hypernetwork. Results on SMAC and LBF demonstrate that RPG effectively prevents catastrophic forgetting when learning new tasks and achieves zero-shot generalization to unseen tasks.