Given time series data, how can we answer questions like "what will happen in the future?" and "how did we get here?"

Latent space Energy-Based Models (EBMs), also known as energy-based priors, have drawn growing interests in the field of generative modeling due to its flexibility in the formulation and strong modeling power of the latent space. However, the common practice of learning latent space EBMs with non-convergent short-run MCMC for prior and posterior sampling is hindering the model from further progress; the degenerate MCMC sampling quality in practice often leads to degraded generation quality and instability in training, especially with highly multi-modal and/or high-dimensional target distributions. To remedy this sampling issue, in this paper we introduce a simple but effective diffusion-based amortization method for long-run MCMC sampling and develop a novel learning algorithm for the latent space EBM based on it. We provide theoretical evidence that the learned amortization of MCMC is a valid long-run MCMC sampler.

One of the fundamental cognitive abilities of humans is to quickly resolve uncertainty by generating hypotheses and testing them via active trials.

We explore uncertainty quantification in large language models (LLMs), with the goal to identify when uncertainty in responses given a query is large. We simultaneously consider both epistemic and aleatoric uncertainties, where the former comes from the lack of knowledge about the ground truth (such as about facts or the language), and the latter comes from irreducible randomness (such as multiple possible answers).

Tweedie's formula, we show that we can perform gradient steps to sequentially optimize these objectives.