Directed Networks
Effects of term weighting approach with and without stop words removing on Arabic text classification
Alhenawi, Esra'a, Khurma, Ruba Abu, Castillo, Pedro A., Arenas, Maribel G.
Classifying text is a method for categorizing documents into pre-established groups. Text documents must be prepared and represented in a way that is appropriate for the algorithms used for data mining prior to classification. As a result, a number of term weighting strategies have been created in the literature to enhance text categorization algorithms' functionality. This study compares the effects of Binary and Term frequency weighting feature methodologies on the text's classification method when stop words are eliminated once and when they are not. In recognition of assessing the effects of prior weighting of features approaches on classification results in terms of accuracy, recall, precision, and F-measure values, we used an Arabic data set made up of 322 documents divided into six main topics (agriculture, economy, health, politics, science, and sport), each of which contains 50 documents, with the exception of the health category, which contains 61 documents. The results demonstrate that for all metrics, the term frequency feature weighting approach with stop word removal outperforms the binary approach, while for accuracy, recall, and F-Measure, the binary approach outperforms the TF approach without stop word removal. However, for precision, the two approaches produce results that are very similar. Additionally, it is clear from the data that, using the same phrase weighting approach, stop word removing increases classification accuracy.
Generative Probabilistic Time Series Forecasting and Applications in Grid Operations
Wang, Xinyi, Tong, Lang, Zhao, Qing
The main challenge of applying Wiener-Kallianpur innovation Whereas standard probabilistic forecasting aims to estimate representation for inference and decision-making is the conditional probability distribution of the time series at twofold. First, obtaining a causal encoder to extract the a future time, GPF obtains a generative model capable of innovation process requires knowing the marginal and joint producing arbitrarily many Monte Carlo samples of future distributions of the time series, which is rarely possible without time series realizations according to the conditional probability imposing some parametric structure. Furthermore, even when distribution of the time series given past observations. As the probability distribution is known, there is no known computationally a nonparametric probabilistic forecasting technique, GPF is tractable way to construct the causal encoder to essential for decision-making under uncertainty where datadriven obtain an innovation process. Second, the Wiener-Kallianpur risk-sensitive optimization requires conditional samples innovation representation may not exist for a broad class of of future randomness. The Monte Carlo samples generated random processes, including some of the important cases of from GPF can be used to produce any form of point forecast.
Semirings for Probabilistic and Neuro-Symbolic Logic Programming
Derkinderen, Vincent, Manhaeve, Robin, Martires, Pedro Zuidberg Dos, De Raedt, Luc
The original framework of Poole and Sato extended the logic programming language Prolog (Flach, 1994) with probabilistic facts. These are facts that are annotated with the probability that they are true; they play a role similar to the parentless nodes in Bayesian networks in that they are marginally independent of one another, and that the probabilistic dependencies are induced by the rules of the logic program. This resulted in the celebrated distribution semantics (Sato, 1995) that is the basis of probabilistic logic programming, and the corresponding learning algorithm in the PRISM language (Sato, 1995) constitutes - to the best of the authors' knowledge - the very first probabilistic programming language with built-in support for machine learning. The work of Sato and Poole has inspired many follow-up works on inference and learning, and has also introduced many variations and extensions of the probabilistic logic programming and its celebrated distribution semantics.
Probabilistic Neural Networks (PNNs) for Modeling Aleatoric Uncertainty in Scientific Machine Learning
Pourkamali-Anaraki, Farhad, Husseini, Jamal F., Stapleton, Scott E.
This paper investigates the use of probabilistic neural networks (PNNs) to model aleatoric uncertainty, which refers to the inherent variability in the input-output relationships of a system, often characterized by unequal variance or heteroscedasticity. Unlike traditional neural networks that produce deterministic outputs, PNNs generate probability distributions for the target variable, allowing the determination of both predicted means and intervals in regression scenarios. Contributions of this paper include the development of a probabilistic distance metric to optimize PNN architecture, and the deployment of PNNs in controlled data sets as well as a practical material science case involving fiber-reinforced composites. The findings confirm that PNNs effectively model aleatoric uncertainty, proving to be more appropriate than the commonly employed Gaussian process regression for this purpose. Specifically, in a real-world scientific machine learning context, PNNs yield remarkably accurate output mean estimates with R-squared scores approaching 0.97, and their predicted intervals exhibit a high correlation coefficient of nearly 0.80, closely matching observed data intervals. Hence, this research contributes to the ongoing exploration of leveraging the sophisticated representational capacity of neural networks to delineate complex input-output relationships in scientific problems.
A unified Bayesian framework for interval hypothesis testing in clinical trials
Chakraborty, Abhisek, Murray, Megan H., Lipkovich, Ilya, Du, Yu
The American Statistical Association (ASA) statement on statistical significance and P-values \cite{wasserstein2016asa} cautioned statisticians against making scientific decisions solely on the basis of traditional P-values. The statement delineated key issues with P-values, including a lack of transparency, an inability to quantify evidence in support of the null hypothesis, and an inability to measure the size of an effect or the importance of a result. In this article, we demonstrate that the interval null hypothesis framework (instead of the point null hypothesis framework), when used in tandem with Bayes factor-based tests, is instrumental in circumnavigating the key issues of P-values. Further, we note that specifying prior densities for Bayes factors is challenging and has been a reason for criticism of Bayesian hypothesis testing in existing literature. We address this by adapting Bayes factors directly based on common test statistics. We demonstrate, through numerical experiments and real data examples, that the proposed Bayesian interval hypothesis testing procedures can be calibrated to ensure frequentist error control while retaining their inherent interpretability. Finally, we illustrate the improved flexibility and applicability of the proposed methods by providing coherent frameworks for competitive landscape analysis and end-to-end Bayesian hypothesis tests in the context of reporting clinical trial outcomes.
Guarantee Regions for Local Explanations
Havasi, Marton, Parbhoo, Sonali, Doshi-Velez, Finale
Interpretability methods that utilise local surrogate models (e.g. LIME) are very good at describing the behaviour of the predictive model at a point of interest, but they are not guaranteed to extrapolate to the local region surrounding the point. However, overfitting to the local curvature of the predictive model and malicious tampering can significantly limit extrapolation. We propose an anchor-based algorithm for identifying regions in which local explanations are guaranteed to be correct by explicitly describing those intervals along which the input features can be trusted. Our method produces an interpretable feature-aligned box where the prediction of the local surrogate model is guaranteed to match the predictive model. We demonstrate that our algorithm can be used to find explanations with larger guarantee regions that better cover the data manifold compared to existing baselines. We also show how our method can identify misleading local explanations with significantly poorer guarantee regions.
User Modeling and User Profiling: A Comprehensive Survey
Purificato, Erasmo, Boratto, Ludovico, De Luca, Ernesto William
The integration of artificial intelligence (AI) into daily life, particularly through information retrieval and recommender systems, has necessitated advanced user modeling and profiling techniques to deliver personalized experiences. These techniques aim to construct accurate user representations based on the rich amounts of data generated through interactions with these systems. This paper presents a comprehensive survey of the current state, evolution, and future directions of user modeling and profiling research. We provide a historical overview, tracing the development from early stereotype models to the latest deep learning techniques, and propose a novel taxonomy that encompasses all active topics in this research area, including recent trends. Our survey highlights the paradigm shifts towards more sophisticated user profiling methods, emphasizing implicit data collection, multi-behavior modeling, and the integration of graph data structures. We also address the critical need for privacy-preserving techniques and the push towards explainability and fairness in user modeling approaches. By examining the definitions of core terminology, we aim to clarify ambiguities and foster a clearer understanding of the field by proposing two novel encyclopedic definitions of the main terms. Furthermore, we explore the application of user modeling in various domains, such as fake news detection, cybersecurity, and personalized education. This survey serves as a comprehensive resource for researchers and practitioners, offering insights into the evolution of user modeling and profiling and guiding the development of more personalized, ethical, and effective AI systems.
Context-Aware Quantitative Risk Assessment Machine Learning Model for Drivers Distraction
Fasanmade, Adebamigbe, Al-Bayatti, Ali H., Morden, Jarrad Neil, Caraffini, Fabio
Risk mitigation techniques are critical to avoiding accidents associated with driving behaviour. We provide a novel Multi-Class Driver Distraction Risk Assessment (MDDRA) model that considers the vehicle, driver, and environmental data during a journey. MDDRA categorises the driver on a risk matrix as safe, careless, or dangerous. It offers flexibility in adjusting the parameters and weights to consider each event on a specific severity level. We collect real-world data using the Field Operation Test (TeleFOT), covering drivers using the same routes in the East Midlands, United Kingdom (UK). The results show that reducing road accidents caused by driver distraction is possible. We also study the correlation between distraction (driver, vehicle, and environment) and the classification severity based on a continuous distraction severity score. Furthermore, we apply machine learning techniques to classify and predict driver distraction according to severity levels to aid the transition of control from the driver to the vehicle (vehicle takeover) when a situation is deemed risky. The Ensemble Bagged Trees algorithm performed best, with an accuracy of 96.2%.
A Neuro-Symbolic Approach to Multi-Agent RL for Interpretability and Probabilistic Decision Making
Subramanian, Chitra, Liu, Miao, Khan, Naweed, Lenchner, Jonathan, Amarnath, Aporva, Swaminathan, Sarathkrishna, Riegel, Ryan, Gray, Alexander
Multi-agent reinforcement learning (MARL) is well-suited for runtime decision-making in optimizing the performance of systems where multiple agents coexist and compete for shared resources. However, applying common deep learning-based MARL solutions to real-world problems suffers from issues of interpretability, sample efficiency, partial observability, etc. To address these challenges, we present an event-driven formulation, where decision-making is handled by distributed co-operative MARL agents using neuro-symbolic methods. The recently introduced neuro-symbolic Logical Neural Networks (LNN) framework serves as a function approximator for the RL, to train a rules-based policy that is both logical and interpretable by construction. To enable decision-making under uncertainty and partial observability, we developed a novel probabilistic neuro-symbolic framework, Probabilistic Logical Neural Networks (PLNN), which combines the capabilities of logical reasoning with probabilistic graphical models. In PLNN, the upward/downward inference strategy, inherited from LNN, is coupled with belief bounds by setting the activation function for the logical operator associated with each neural network node to a probability-respecting generalization of the Fr\'echet inequalities. These PLNN nodes form the unifying element that combines probabilistic logic and Bayes Nets, permitting inference for variables with unobserved states. We demonstrate our contributions by addressing key MARL challenges for power sharing in a system-on-chip application.
The practice of qualitative parameterisation in the development of Bayesian networks
Mascaro, Steven, Woodberry, Owen, Wu, Yue, Nicholson, Ann E.
The typical phases of Bayesian network (BN) structured development include specification of purpose and scope, structure development, parameterisation and validation. Structure development is typically focused on qualitative issues and parameterisation quantitative issues, however there are qualitative and quantitative issues that arise in both phases. A common step that occurs after the initial structure has been developed is to perform a rough parameterisation that only captures and illustrates the intended qualitative behaviour of the model. This is done prior to a more rigorous parameterisation, ensuring that the structure is fit for purpose, as well as supporting later development and validation. In our collective experience and in discussions with other modellers, this step is an important part of the development process, but is under-reported in the literature. Since the practice focuses on qualitative issues, despite being quantitative in nature, we call this step qualitative parameterisation and provide an outline of its role in the BN development process.