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Annealed Stein Variational Gradient Descent for Improved Uncertainty Estimation in Full-Waveform Inversion

arXiv.org Machine Learning

In recent years, Full-Waveform Inversion (FWI) has been extensively used to derive high-resolution subsurface velocity models from seismic data. However, due to the nonlinearity and ill-posed nature of the problem, FWI requires a good starting model to avoid producing non-physical solutions. Moreover, conventional optimization methods fail to quantify the uncertainty associated with the recovered solution, which is critical for decision-making processes. Bayesian inference offers an alternative approach as it directly or indirectly evaluates the posterior probability density function. For example, Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods generate multiple sample chains to characterize the solution's uncertainty. Despite their ability to theoretically handle any form of distribution, MCMC methods require many sampling steps; this limits their usage in high-dimensional problems with computationally intensive forward modeling, as is the FWI case. Variational Inference (VI), on the other hand, provides an approximate solution to the posterior distribution in the form of a parametric or non-parametric proposal distribution. Among the various algorithms used in VI, Stein Variational Gradient Descent (SVGD) is recognized for its ability to iteratively refine a set of samples to approximate the target distribution. However, mode and variance-collapse issues affect SVGD in high-dimensional inverse problems. This study aims to improve the performance of SVGD within the context of FWI by utilizing, for the first time, an annealed variant of SVGD and combining it with a multi-scale strategy. Additionally, we demonstrate that Principal Component Analysis (PCA) can be used to evaluate the performance of the optimization process. Clustering techniques are also employed to provide more rigorous and meaningful statistical analysis of the particles in the presence of multi-modal distributions.


Testing Causal Explanations: A Case Study for Understanding the Effect of Interventions on Chronic Kidney Disease

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Randomized controlled trials (RCTs) are the standard for evaluating the effectiveness of clinical interventions. To address the limitations of RCTs on real-world populations, we developed a methodology that uses a large observational electronic health record (EHR) dataset. Principles of regression discontinuity (rd) were used to derive randomized data subsets to test expert-driven interventions using dynamic Bayesian Networks (DBNs) do-operations. This combined method was applied to a chronic kidney disease (CKD) cohort of more than two million individuals and used to understand the associational and causal relationships of CKD variables with respect to a surrogate outcome of >=40% decline in estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR). The associational and causal analyses depicted similar findings across DBNs from two independent healthcare systems. The associational analysis showed that the most influential variables were eGFR, urine albumin-to-creatinine ratio, and pulse pressure, whereas the causal analysis showed eGFR as the most influential variable, followed by modifiable factors such as medications that may impact kidney function over time. This methodology demonstrates how real-world EHR data can be used to provide population-level insights to inform improved healthcare delivery.


Computational Approaches to Arabic-English Code-Switching

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Natural Language Processing (NLP) is a vital computational method for addressing language processing, analysis, and generation. NLP tasks form the core of many daily applications, from automatic text correction to speech recognition. While significant research has focused on NLP tasks for the English language, less attention has been given to Modern Standard Arabic and Dialectal Arabic. Globalization has also contributed to the rise of Code-Switching (CS), where speakers mix languages within conversations and even within individual words (intra-word CS). This is especially common in Arab countries, where people often switch between dialects or between dialects and a foreign language they master. CS between Arabic and English is frequent in Egypt, especially on social media. Consequently, a significant amount of code-switched content can be found online. Such code-switched data needs to be investigated and analyzed for several NLP tasks to tackle the challenges of this multilingual phenomenon and Arabic language challenges. No work has been done before for several integral NLP tasks on Arabic-English CS data. In this work, we focus on the Named Entity Recognition (NER) task and other tasks that help propose a solution for the NER task on CS data, e.g., Language Identification. This work addresses this gap by proposing and applying state-of-the-art techniques for Modern Standard Arabic and Arabic-English NER. We have created the first annotated CS Arabic-English corpus for the NER task. Also, we apply two enhancement techniques to improve the NER tagger on CS data using CS contextual embeddings and data augmentation techniques. All methods showed improvements in the performance of the NER taggers on CS data. Finally, we propose several intra-word language identification approaches to determine the language type of a mixed text and identify whether it is a named entity or not.


Transferable Belief Model on Quantum Circuits

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The transferable belief model, as a semantic interpretation of Dempster-Shafer theory, enables agents to perform reasoning and decision making in imprecise and incomplete environments. The model offers distinct semantics for handling unreliable testimonies, allowing for a more reasonable and general process of belief transfer compared to the Bayesian approach. However, because both the belief masses and the structure of focal sets must be considered when updating belief functions-leading to extra computational complexity during reasoning-the transferable belief model has gradually lost favor among researchers in recent developments. In this paper, we implement the transferable belief model on quantum circuits and demonstrate that belief functions offer a more concise and effective alternative to Bayesian approaches within the quantum computing framework. Furthermore, leveraging the unique characteristics of quantum computing, we propose several novel belief transfer approaches. More broadly, this paper introduces a new perspective on basic information representation for quantum AI models, suggesting that belief functions are more suitable than Bayesian approach for handling uncertainty on quantum circuits.


Generalization Error of the Tilted Empirical Risk

arXiv.org Machine Learning

The generalization error (risk) of a supervised statistical learning algorithm quantifies its prediction ability on previously unseen data. Inspired by exponential tilting, Li et al. (2021) proposed the tilted empirical risk as a non-linear risk metric for machine learning applications such as classification and regression problems. In this work, we examine the generalization error of the tilted empirical risk. In particular, we provide uniform and information-theoretic bounds on the tilted generalization error, defined as the difference between the population risk and the tilted empirical risk, with a convergence rate of $O(1/\sqrt{n})$ where $n$ is the number of training samples. Furthermore, we study the solution to the KL-regularized expected tilted empirical risk minimization problem and derive an upper bound on the expected tilted generalization error with a convergence rate of $O(1/n)$.


Local transfer learning Gaussian process modeling, with applications to surrogate modeling of expensive computer simulators

arXiv.org Machine Learning

A critical bottleneck for scientific progress is the costly nature of computer simulations for complex systems. Surrogate models provide an appealing solution: such models are trained on simulator evaluations, then used to emulate and quantify uncertainty on the expensive simulator at unexplored inputs. In many applications, one often has available data on related systems. For example, in designing a new jet turbine, there may be existing studies on turbines with similar configurations. A key question is how information from such "source" systems can be transferred for effective surrogate training on the "target" system of interest. We thus propose a new LOcal transfer Learning Gaussian Process (LOL-GP) model, which leverages a carefully-designed Gaussian process to transfer such information for surrogate modeling. The key novelty of the LOL-GP is a latent regularization model, which identifies regions where transfer should be performed and regions where it should be avoided. This "local transfer" property is desirable in scientific systems: at certain parameters, such systems may behave similarly and thus transfer is beneficial; at other parameters, they may behave differently and thus transfer is detrimental. By accounting for local transfer, the LOL-GP can rectify a critical limitation of "negative transfer" in existing transfer learning models, where the transfer of information worsens predictive performance. We derive a Gibbs sampling algorithm for efficient posterior predictive sampling on the LOL-GP, for both the multi-source and multi-fidelity transfer settings. We then show, via a suite of numerical experiments and an application for jet turbine design, the improved surrogate performance of the LOL-GP over existing methods.


Advancements In Heart Disease Prediction: A Machine Learning Approach For Early Detection And Risk Assessment

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The primary aim of this paper is to comprehend, assess, and analyze the role, relevance, and efficiency of machine learning models in predicting heart disease risks using clinical data. While the importance of heart disease risk prediction cannot be overstated, the application of machine learning (ML) in identifying and evaluating the impact of various features on the classification of patients with and without heart disease, as well as in generating a reliable clinical dataset, is equally significant. This study relies primarily on cross-sectional clinical data. The ML approach is designed to enhance the consideration of various clinical features in the heart disease prognosis process. Some features emerge as strong predictors, adding significant value. The paper evaluates seven ML classifiers: Logistic Regression, Random Forest, Decision Tree, Naive Bayes, k-Nearest Neighbors, Neural Networks, and Support Vector Machine (SVM). The performance of each model is assessed based on accuracy metrics. Notably, the Support Vector Machine (SVM) demonstrates the highest accuracy at 91.51%, confirming its superiority among the evaluated models in terms of predictive capability. The overall findings of this research highlight the advantages of advanced computational methodologies in the evaluation, prediction, improvement, and management of cardiovascular risks. In other words, the strong performance of the SVM model illustrates its applicability and value in clinical settings, paving the way for further advancements in personalized medicine and healthcare.


Nonlinear bayesian tomography of ion temperature and velocity for Doppler coherence imaging spectroscopy in RT-1

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

We present a novel Bayesian tomography approach for Coherence Imaging Spectroscopy (CIS) that simultaneously reconstructs ion temperature and velocity distributions in plasmas. Utilizing nonlinear Gaussian Process Tomography (GPT) with the Laplace approximation, we model prior distributions of log-emissivity, temperature, and velocity as Gaussian processes. This framework rigorously incorporates nonlinear effects and temperature dependencies often neglected in conventional CIS tomography, enabling robust reconstruction even in the region of high temperature and velocity. By applying a log-Gaussian process, we also address issues like velocity divergence in low-emissivity regions. Validated with phantom simulations and experimental data from the RT-1 device, our method reveals detailed spatial structures of ion temperature and toroidal ion flow characteristic of magnetospheric plasma. This work significantly broadens the scope of CIS tomography, offering a robust tool for plasma diagnostics and facilitating integration with complementary measurement techniques.


Advancing Fairness in Natural Language Processing: From Traditional Methods to Explainability

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The burgeoning field of Natural Language Processing (NLP) stands at a critical juncture where the integration of fairness within its frameworks has become an imperative. This PhD thesis addresses the need for equity and transparency in NLP systems, recognizing that fairness in NLP is not merely a technical challenge but a moral and ethical necessity, requiring a rigorous examination of how these technologies interact with and impact diverse human populations. Through this lens, this thesis undertakes a thorough investigation into the development of equitable NLP methodologies and the evaluation of biases that prevail in current systems. First, it introduces an innovative algorithm to mitigate biases in multi-class classifiers, tailored for high-risk NLP applications, surpassing traditional methods in both bias mitigation and prediction accuracy. Then, an analysis of the Bios dataset reveals the impact of dataset size on discriminatory biases and the limitations of standard fairness metrics. This awareness has led to explorations in the field of explainable AI, aiming for a more complete understanding of biases where traditional metrics are limited. Consequently, the thesis presents COCKATIEL, a model-agnostic explainability method that identifies and ranks concepts in Transformer models, outperforming previous approaches in sentiment analysis tasks. Finally, the thesis contributes to bridging the gap between fairness and explainability by introducing TaCo, a novel method to neutralize bias in Transformer model embeddings. In conclusion, this thesis constitutes a significant interdisciplinary endeavor that intertwines explicability and fairness to challenge and reshape current NLP paradigms. The methodologies and critiques presented contribute to the ongoing discourse on fairness in machine learning, offering actionable solutions for more equitable and responsible AI systems.


Double-Bayesian Learning

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Contemporary machine learning methods will try to approach the Bayes error, as it is the lowest possible error any model can achieve. This paper postulates that any decision is composed of not one but two Bayesian decisions and that decision-making is, therefore, a double-Bayesian process. The paper shows how this duality implies intrinsic uncertainty in decisions and how it incorporates explainability. The proposed approach understands that Bayesian learning is tantamount to finding a base for a logarithmic function measuring uncertainty, with solutions being fixed points. Furthermore, following this approach, the golden ratio describes possible solutions satisfying Bayes' theorem. The double-Bayesian framework suggests using a learning rate and momentum weight with values similar to those used in the literature to train neural networks with stochastic gradient descent.