We develop EigenVI, an eigenvalue-based approach for black-box variational inference (BBVI). EigenVI constructs its variational approximations from orthogonal function expansions. For distributions over $\mathbb{R}^D$, the lowest order term in these expansions provides a Gaussian variational approximation, while higher-order terms provide a systematic way to model non-Gaussianity. These approximations are flexible enough to model complex distributions (multimodal, asymmetric), but they are simple enough that one can calculate their low-order moments and draw samples from them. EigenVI can also model other types of random variables (e.g., nonnegative, bounded) by constructing variational approximations from different families of orthogonal functions. Within these families, EigenVI computes the variational approximation that best matches the score function of the target distribution by minimizing a stochastic estimate of the Fisher divergence. Notably, this optimization reduces to solving a minimum eigenvalue problem, so that EigenVI effectively sidesteps the iterative gradient-based optimizations that are required for many other BBVI algorithms. (Gradient-based methods can be sensitive to learning rates, termination criteria, and other tunable hyperparameters.) We use EigenVI to approximate a variety of target distributions, including a benchmark suite of Bayesian models from posteriordb. On these distributions, we find that EigenVI is more accurate than existing methods for Gaussian BBVI.

This paper presents a novel framework for full-waveform seismic source inversion using simulation-based inference (SBI). Traditional probabilistic approaches often rely on simplifying assumptions about data errors, which we show can lead to inaccurate uncertainty quantification. SBI addresses this limitation by building an empirical probabilistic model of the data errors using machine learning models, known as neural density estimators, which can then be integrated into the Bayesian inference framework. We apply the SBI framework to point-source moment tensor inversions as well as joint moment tensor and time-location inversions. We construct a range of synthetic examples to explore the quality of the SBI solutions, as well as to compare the SBI results with standard Gaussian likelihood-based Bayesian inversions. We then demonstrate that under real seismic noise, common Gaussian likelihood assumptions for treating full-waveform data yield overconfident posterior distributions that underestimate the moment tensor component uncertainties by up to a factor of 3. We contrast this with SBI, which produces well-calibrated posteriors that generally agree with the true seismic source parameters, and offers an order-of-magnitude reduction in the number of simulations required to perform inference compared to standard Monte Carlo techniques. Finally, we apply our methodology to a pair of moderate magnitude earthquakes in the North Atlantic. We utilise seismic waveforms recorded by the recent UPFLOW ocean bottom seismometer array as well as by regional land stations in the Azores, comparing full moment tensor and source-time location posteriors between SBI and a Gaussian likelihood approach. We find that our adaptation of SBI can be directly applied to real earthquake sources to efficiently produce high quality posterior distributions that significantly improve upon Gaussian likelihood approaches.

We introduce new high-resolution galaxy simulations accelerated by a surrogate model that reduces the computation cost by approximately 75 percent. Massive stars with a Zero Age Main Sequence mass of about 8 solar masses and above explode as core-collapse supernovae (CCSNe), which play a critical role in galaxy formation. The energy released by CCSNe is essential for regulating star formation and driving feedback processes in the interstellar medium (ISM). However, the short integration timesteps required for SNe feedback present significant bottlenecks in star-by-star galaxy simulations that aim to capture individual stellar dynamics and the inhomogeneous shell expansion of SNe within the turbulent ISM. Our new framework combines direct numerical simulations and surrogate modeling, including machine learning and Gibbs sampling. The star formation history and the time evolution of outflow rates in the galaxy match those obtained from resolved direct numerical simulations. Our new approach achieves high-resolution fidelity while reducing computational costs, effectively bridging the physical scale gap and enabling multi-scale simulations.

Diabetes is a chronic disorder identified by the high sugar level in the blood that can cause various different disorders such as kidney failure, heart attack, sightlessness, and stroke. Developments in the healthcare domain by facilitating the early detection of diabetes risk can help not only caregivers but also patients. AIoMT is a recent technology that integrates IoT and machine learning methods to give services for medical purposes, which is a powerful technology for the early detection of diabetes. In this paper, we take advantage of AIoMT and propose a hybrid diabetes risk detection method, DiabML, which uses the BWO algorithm and ML methods. BWO is utilized for feature selection and SMOTE for imbalance handling in the pre-processing procedure. The simulation results prove the superiority of the proposed DiabML method compared to the existing works. DiabML achieves 86.1\% classification accuracy by AdaBoost classifier outperforms the relevant existing methods.

Crime linkage is the process of analyzing criminal behavior data to determine whether a pair or group of crime cases are connected or belong to a series of offenses. This domain has been extensively studied by researchers in sociology, psychology, and statistics. More recently, it has drawn interest from computer scientists, especially with advances in artificial intelligence. Despite this, the literature indicates that work in this latter discipline is still in its early stages. This study aims to understand the challenges faced by machine learning approaches in crime linkage and to support foundational knowledge for future data-driven methods. To achieve this goal, we conducted a comprehensive survey of the main literature on the topic and developed a general framework for crime linkage processes, thoroughly describing each step. Our goal was to unify insights from diverse fields into a shared terminology to enhance the research landscape for those intrigued by this subject.

Diverse computing paradigms have emerged to meet the growing needs for intelligent energy-efficient systems. The Margin Propagation (MP) framework, being one such initiative in the analog computing domain, stands out due to its scalability across biasing conditions, temperatures, and diminishing process technology nodes. However, the lack of digital-like automation tools for designing analog systems (including that of MP analog) hinders their adoption for designing large systems. The inherent scalability and modularity of MP systems present a unique opportunity in this regard. This paper introduces KALAM (toolKit for Automating high-Level synthesis of Analog computing systeMs), which leverages factor graphs as the foundational paradigm for synthesizing MP-based analog computing systems. Factor graphs are the basis of various signal processing tasks and, when coupled with MP, can be used to design scalable and energy-efficient analog signal processors. Using Python scripting language, the KALAM automation flow translates an input factor graph to its equivalent SPICE-compatible circuit netlist that can be used to validate the intended functionality. KALAM also allows the integration of design optimization strategies such as precision tuning, variable elimination, and mathematical simplification. We demonstrate KALAM's versatility for tasks such as Bayesian inference, Low-Density Parity Check (LDPC) decoding, and Artificial Neural Networks (ANN). Simulation results of the netlists align closely with software implementations, affirming the efficacy of our proposed automation tool.

Inspired by the human brain's structure and function, Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) were developed for data classification. However, existing Neural Networks, including Deep Neural Networks, do not mimic the brain's rich structure. They lack key features such as randomness and neuron heterogeneity, which are inherently chaotic in their firing behavior. Neurochaos Learning (NL), a chaos-based neural network, recently employed one-dimensional chaotic maps like Generalized L\"uroth Series (GLS) and Logistic map as neurons. For the first time, we propose a random heterogeneous extension of NL, where various chaotic neurons are randomly placed in the input layer, mimicking the randomness and heterogeneous nature of human brain networks. We evaluated the performance of the newly proposed Random Heterogeneous Neurochaos Learning (RHNL) architectures combined with traditional Machine Learning (ML) methods. On public datasets, RHNL outperformed both homogeneous NL and fixed heterogeneous NL architectures in nearly all classification tasks. RHNL achieved high F1 scores on the Wine dataset (1.0), Bank Note Authentication dataset (0.99), Breast Cancer Wisconsin dataset (0.99), and Free Spoken Digit Dataset (FSDD) (0.98). These RHNL results are among the best in the literature for these datasets. We investigated RHNL performance on image datasets, where it outperformed stand-alone ML classifiers. In low training sample regimes, RHNL was the best among stand-alone ML. Our architecture bridges the gap between existing ANN architectures and the human brain's chaotic, random, and heterogeneous properties. We foresee the development of several novel learning algorithms centered around Random Heterogeneous Neurochaos Learning in the coming days.

What does it mean to say that, for example, the probability for rain tomorrow is between 20% and 30%? The theory for the evaluation of precise probabilistic forecasts is well-developed and is grounded in the key concepts of proper scoring rules and calibration. For the case of imprecise probabilistic forecasts (sets of probabilities), such theory is still lacking. In this work, we therefore generalize proper scoring rules and calibration to the imprecise case. We develop these concepts as relative to data models and decision problems. As a consequence, the imprecision is embedded in a clear context. We establish a close link to the paradigm of (group) distributional robustness and in doing so provide new insights for it. We argue that proper scoring rules and calibration serve two distinct goals, which are aligned in the precise case, but intriguingly are not necessarily aligned in the imprecise case. The concept of decision-theoretic entropy plays a key role for both goals. Finally, we demonstrate the theoretical insights in machine learning practice, in particular we illustrate subtle pitfalls relating to the choice of loss function in distributional robustness.

Sequential learning in deep models often suffers from challenges such as catastrophic forgetting and loss of plasticity, largely due to the permutation dependence of gradient-based algorithms, where the order of training data impacts the learning outcome. In this work, we introduce a novel permutation-invariant learning framework based on high-dimensional particle filters. We theoretically demonstrate that particle filters are invariant to the sequential ordering of training minibatches or tasks, offering a principled solution to mitigate catastrophic forgetting and loss-of-plasticity. We develop an efficient particle filter for optimizing high-dimensional models, combining the strengths of Bayesian methods with gradient-based optimization. Through extensive experiments on continual supervised and reinforcement learning benchmarks, including SplitMNIST, SplitCIFAR100, and ProcGen, we empirically show that our method consistently improves performance, while reducing variance compared to standard baselines.

Mobile health (mHealth) programs face a critical challenge in optimizing the timing of automated health information calls to beneficiaries. This challenge has been formulated as a collaborative multi-armed bandit problem, requiring online learning of a low-rank reward matrix. Existing solutions often rely on heuristic combinations of offline matrix completion and exploration strategies. In this work, we propose a principled Bayesian approach using Thompson Sampling for this collaborative bandit problem. Our method leverages prior information through efficient Gibbs sampling for posterior inference over the low-rank matrix factors, enabling faster convergence. We demonstrate significant improvements over state-of-the-art baselines on a real-world dataset from the world's largest maternal mHealth program. Our approach achieves a $16\%$ reduction in the number of calls compared to existing methods and a $47$\% reduction compared to the deployed random policy. This efficiency gain translates to a potential increase in program capacity by $0.5-1.4$ million beneficiaries, granting them access to vital ante-natal and post-natal care information. Furthermore, we observe a $7\%$ and $29\%$ improvement in beneficiary retention (an extremely hard metric to impact) compared to state-of-the-art and deployed baselines, respectively. Synthetic simulations further demonstrate the superiority of our approach, particularly in low-data regimes and in effectively utilizing prior information. We also provide a theoretical analysis of our algorithm in a special setting using Eluder dimension.