The tree-width of a multivariate polynomial is the tree-width of the hypergraph with hyperedges corresponding to its terms. Multivariate polynomials of bounded tree-width have been studied by Makowsky and Meer as a new sparsity condition that allows for polynomial solvability of problems which are intractable in general. We consider a variation on this theme for Boolean variables. A representation of a Boolean function as the sign of a polynomial is called a polynomial threshold representation. We discuss Boolean functions representable as polynomial threshold functions of bounded tree-width and present two applications to Bayesian network classifiers, a probabilistic graphical model. Both applications are in Explainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI), the research area dealing with the black-box nature of many recent machine learning models. We also give a separation result between the representational power of positive and general polynomial threshold functions.

In this paper we provide a new efficient algorithm for approximately computing the profile maximum likelihood (PML) distribution, a prominent quantity in symmetric property estimation. We provide an algorithm which matches the previous best known efficient algorithms for computing approximate PML distributions and improves when the number of distinct observed frequencies in the given instance is small. We achieve this result by exploiting new sparsity structure in approximate PML distributions and providing a new matrix rounding algorithm, of independent interest. Leveraging this result, we obtain the first provable computationally efficient implementation of PseudoPML, a general framework for estimating a broad class of symmetric properties. Additionally, we obtain efficient PML-based estimators for distributions with small profile entropy, a natural instance-based complexity measure.

We describe two Monte Carlo algorithms for sampling from the integrated posterior distributions of a range of Bayesian mixture models. Both algorithms allow us to directly sample not only the assignment of observations to components but also the number of components, thereby fitting the model and performing model selection over the number of components in a single computation. The first algorithm is a traditional collapsed Gibbs sampler, albeit with an unusual move-set; the second builds on the first, adding rejection-free sampling from the prior over component assignments, to create an algorithm that has excellent mixing time in typical applications and outperforms current state-of-the-art methods, in some cases by a wide margin. We demonstrate our methods with a selection of applications to latent class analysis.

The emergence of large pre-trained vision-language models (VLMs) represents a paradigm shift in machine learning, with unprecedented results in a broad span of visual recognition tasks. CLIP, one of the most popular VLMs, has exhibited remarkable zero-shot and transfer learning capabilities in classification. To transfer CLIP to downstream tasks, adapters constitute a parameter-efficient approach that avoids backpropagation through the large model (unlike related prompt learning methods). However, CLIP adapters have been developed to target discriminative performance, and the quality of their uncertainty estimates has been overlooked. In this work we show that the discriminative performance of state-of-the-art CLIP adapters does not always correlate with their uncertainty estimation capabilities, which are essential for a safe deployment in real-world scenarios. We also demonstrate that one of such adapters is obtained through MAP inference from a more general probabilistic framework. Based on this observation we introduce BayesAdapter, which leverages Bayesian inference to estimate a full probability distribution instead of a single point, better capturing the variability inherent in the parameter space. In a comprehensive empirical evaluation we show that our approach obtains high quality uncertainty estimates in the predictions, standing out in calibration and selective classification. Our code will be publicly available upon acceptance of the paper.

Bayesian Neural Networks (BNNs) offer robust uncertainty quantification in model predictions, but training them presents a significant computational challenge. This is mainly due to the problem of sampling multimodal posterior distributions using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling and variational inference algorithms. Moreover, the number of model parameters scales exponentially with additional hidden layers, neurons, and features in the dataset. Typically, a significant portion of these densely connected parameters are redundant and pruning a neural network not only improves portability but also has the potential for better generalisation capabilities. In this study, we address some of the challenges by leveraging MCMC sampling with network pruning to obtain compact probabilistic models having removed redundant parameters. We sample the posterior distribution of model parameters (weights and biases) and prune weights with low importance, resulting in a compact model. We ensure that the compact BNN retains its ability to estimate uncertainty via the posterior distribution while retaining the model training and generalisation performance accuracy by adapting post-pruning resampling. We evaluate the effectiveness of our MCMC pruning strategy on selected benchmark datasets for regression and classification problems through empirical result analysis. We also consider two coral reef drill-core lithology classification datasets to test the robustness of the pruning model in complex real-world datasets. We further investigate if refining compact BNN can retain any loss of performance. Our results demonstrate the feasibility of training and pruning BNNs using MCMC whilst retaining generalisation performance with over 75% reduction in network size. This paves the way for developing compact BNN models that provide uncertainty estimates for real-world applications.

End-to-end deep neural networks have achieved remarkable success across various domains but are often criticized for their lack of interpretability. While post hoc explanation methods attempt to address this issue, they often fail to accurately represent these black-box models, resulting in misleading or incomplete explanations. To overcome these challenges, we propose an inherently transparent model architecture called Neural Probabilistic Circuits (NPCs), which enable compositional and interpretable predictions through logical reasoning. In particular, an NPC consists of two modules: an attribute recognition model, which predicts probabilities for various attributes, and a task predictor built on a probabilistic circuit, which enables logical reasoning over recognized attributes to make class predictions. To train NPCs, we introduce a three-stage training algorithm comprising attribute recognition, circuit construction, and joint optimization. Moreover, we theoretically demonstrate that an NPC's error is upper-bounded by a linear combination of the errors from its modules. To further demonstrate the interpretability of NPC, we provide both the most probable explanations and the counterfactual explanations. Empirical results on four benchmark datasets show that NPCs strike a balance between interpretability and performance, achieving results competitive even with those of end-to-end black-box models while providing enhanced interpretability.

In this paper, a signal detection method based on the denoise diffusion model (DM) is proposed, which outperforms the maximum likelihood (ML) estimation method that has long been regarded as the optimal signal detection technique. Theoretically, a novel mathematical theory for intelligent signal detection based on stochastic differential equations (SDEs) is established in this paper, demonstrating the effectiveness of DM in reducing the additive white Gaussian noise in received signals. Moreover, a mathematical relationship between the signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) and the timestep in DM is established, revealing that for any given SNR, a corresponding optimal timestep can be identified. Furthermore, to address potential issues with out-of-distribution inputs in the DM, we employ a mathematical scaling technique that allows the trained DM to handle signal detection across a wide range of SNRs without any fine-tuning. Xiucheng Wang, Peilin Zheng, Nan Cheng are with the State Key Laboratory of ISN and School of Telecommunications Engineering, Xidian University, Xi'an 710071, China. Signal detection plays a critical role in digital baseband transmission, since it estimates which symbols are transmitted by the sender, from the noisy received signals. Thus, the performance of signal detection directly impacts the symbol error rate (SER) of data transmission, which in turn determines the error-free transmission rate, also known as the Shannon threshold [1]. As a result, numerous signal detection techniques have been developed to minimize the SER and bring the transmission rate as close as possible to the Shannon threshold.

Cascaded models are multi-scale generative models with a marked capacity for producing perceptually impressive samples at high resolutions. In this work, we show that they can also be excellent likelihood models, so long as we overcome a fundamental difficulty with probabilistic multi-scale models: the intractability of the likelihood function. Chiefly, in cascaded models each intermediary scale introduces extraneous variables that cannot be tractably marginalized out for likelihood evaluation. This issue vanishes by modeling the diffusion process on latent spaces induced by a class of transformations we call hierarchical volume-preserving maps, which decompose spatially structured data in a hierarchical fashion without introducing local distortions in the latent space. We demonstrate that two such maps are well-known in the literature for multiscale modeling: Laplacian pyramids and wavelet transforms. Not only do such reparameterizations allow the likelihood function to be directly expressed as a joint likelihood over the scales, we show that the Laplacian pyramid and wavelet transform also produces significant improvements to the state-of-the-art on a selection of benchmarks in likelihood modeling, including density estimation, lossless compression, and out-of-distribution detection. Investigating the theoretical basis of our empirical gains we uncover deep connections to score matching under the Earth Mover's Distance (EMD), which is a well-known surrogate for perceptual similarity. Code can be found at \href{https://github.com/lihenryhfl/pcdm}{this https url}.

Brains perform decision-making by Bayes theorem. The theorem quantifies events as probabilities and, based on probability rules, renders the decisions. Learning from this, Bayes theorem can be applied to enable efficient user-scene interactions. However, given the probabilistic nature, implementing Bayes theorem in hardware using conventional deterministic computing can incur excessive computational cost and decision latency. Though challenging, here we present a probabilistic computing approach based on memristors to implement the Bayes theorem. We integrate memristors with Boolean logics and, by exploiting the volatile stochastic switching of the memristors, realise probabilistic logic operations, key for hardware Bayes theorem implementation. To empirically validate the efficacy of the hardware Bayes theorem in user-scene interactions, we develop lightweight Bayesian inference and fusion hardware operators using the probabilistic logics and apply the operators in road scene parsing for self-driving, including route planning and obstacle detection. The results show our operators can achieve reliable decisions in less than 0.4 ms (or equivalently 2,500 fps), outperforming human decision-making and the existing driving assistance systems.

Artificial Intelligent transformed industries, like engineering, medicine, finance. Predictive models use supervised learning, a vital Machine learning subset. Crucial for model evaluation, cross-validation includes re-substitution, hold-out, and K-fold. This study focuses on improving the accuracy of ML algorithms across three different datasets. To evaluate Hold-out, Hold-out with iteration, and K-fold Cross-Validation techniques, we created a flexible Python program. By modifying parameters like test size, Random State, and 'k' values, we were able to improve accuracy assessment. The outcomes demonstrate the Hold-out validation method's persistent superiority, particularly with a test size of 10%. With iterations and Random State settings, hold-out with iteration shows little accuracy variance. It suggests that there are variances according to algorithm, with Decision Tree doing best for Framingham and Naive Bayes and K Nearest Neighbors for COVID-19. Different datasets require different optimal K values in K-Fold Cross Validation, highlighting these considerations. This study challenges the universality of K values in K-Fold Cross Validation and suggests a 10% test size and 90% training size for better outcomes. It also emphasizes the contextual impact of dataset features, sample size, feature count, and selected methodologies. Researchers can adapt these codes for their dataset to obtain highest accuracy with specific evaluation.