Neurofeedback training (NFT) aims to teach self-regulation of brain activity through real-time feedback, but suffers from highly variable outcomes and poorly understood mechanisms, hampering its validation. To address these issues, we propose a formal computational model of the NFT closed loop. Using Active Inference, a Bayesian framework modelling perception, action, and learning, we simulate agents interacting with an NFT environment. This enables us to test the impact of design choices (e.g., feedback quality, biomarker validity) and subject factors (e.g., prior beliefs) on training. Simulations show that training effectiveness is sensitive to feedback noise or bias, and to prior beliefs (highlighting the importance of guiding instructions), but also reveal that perfect feedback is insufficient to guarantee high performance. This approach provides a tool for assessing and predicting NFT variability, interpret empirical data, and potentially develop personalized training protocols.

Human education transcends mere knowledge transfer, it relies on co-adaptation dynamics -- the mutual adjustment of teaching and learning strategies between agents. Despite its centrality, computational models of co-adaptive teacher-student interactions (T-SI) remain underdeveloped. We argue that this gap impedes Educational Science in testing and scaling contextual insights across diverse settings, and limits the potential of Machine Learning systems, which struggle to emulate and adaptively support human learning processes. To address this, we present a computational T-SI model that integrates contextual insights on human education into a testable framework. We use the model to evaluate diverse T-SI strategies in a realistic synthetic classroom setting, simulating student groups with unequal access to sensory information. Results show that strategies incorporating co-adaptation principles (e.g., bidirectional agency) outperform unilateral approaches (i.e., where only the teacher or the student is active), improving the learning outcomes for all learning types. Beyond the testing and scaling of context-dependent educational insights, our model enables hypothesis generation in controlled yet adaptable environments. This work bridges non-computational theories of human education with scalable, inclusive AI in Education systems, providing a foundation for equitable technologies that dynamically adapt to learner needs.

Data derived from remote sensing or numerical simulations often have a regular gridded structure and are large in volume, making it challenging to find accurate spatial models that can fill in missing grid cells or simulate the process effectively, especially in the presence of spatial heterogeneity and heavy-tailed marginal distributions. To overcome this issue, we present a spatial autoregressive modeling framework, which maps observations at a location and its neighbors to independent random variables. This is a highly flexible modeling approach and well-suited for non-Gaussian fields, providing simpler interpretability. In particular, we consider the SAR model with Generalized Extreme Value distribution innovations to combine the observation at a central grid location with its neighbors, capturing extreme spatial behavior based on the heavy-tailed innovations. While these models are fast to simulate by exploiting the sparsity of the key matrices in the computations, the maximum likelihood estimation of the parameters is prohibitive due to the intractability of the likelihood, making optimization challenging. To overcome this, we train a convolutional neural network on a large training set that covers a useful parameter space, and then use the trained network for fast parameter estimation. Finally, we apply this model to analyze annual maximum precipitation data from ERA-Interim-driven Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) simulations, allowing us to explore its spatial extreme behavior across North America.

We propose a novel nonparametric approach for linking covariates to Continuous Time Markov Chains (CTMCs) using the mathematical framework of Reproducing Kernel Hilbert Spaces (RKHS). CTMCs provide a robust framework for modeling transitions across clinical or behavioral states, but traditional multistate models often rely on linear relationships. In contrast, we use a generalized Representer Theorem to enable tractable inference in functional space. For the Frequen-tist version, we apply normed square penalties, while for the Bayesian version, we explore sparsity inducing spike and slab priors. Due to the computational challenges posed by high-dimensional spaces, we successfully adapt the Expectation Maximization Variable Selection (EMVS) algorithm to efficiently identify the posterior mode. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our method through extensive simulation studies and an application to follicular cell lymphoma data. Our performance metrics include the normalized difference between estimated and true nonlinear transition functions, as well as the difference in the probability of getting absorbed in one the final states, capturing the ability of our approach to predict long-term behaviors.

Distributionally Robust Optimisation (DRO) protects risk-averse decision-makers by considering the worst-case risk within an ambiguity set of distributions based on the empirical distribution or a model. To further guard against finite, noisy data, model-based approaches admit Bayesian formulations that propagate uncertainty from the posterior to the decision-making problem. However, when the model is misspecified, the decision maker must stretch the ambiguity set to contain the data-generating process (DGP), leading to overly conservative decisions. We address this challenge by introducing DRO with Robust, to model misspecification, Bayesian Ambiguity Sets (DRO-RoBAS). These are Maximum Mean Discrepancy ambiguity sets centred at a robust posterior predictive distribution that incorporates beliefs about the DGP. We show that the resulting optimisation problem obtains a dual formulation in the Reproducing Kernel Hilbert Space and we give probabilistic guarantees on the tolerance level of the ambiguity set. Our method outperforms other Bayesian and empirical DRO approaches in out-of-sample performance on the Newsvendor and Portfolio problems with various cases of model misspecification.

Bioprocess mechanistic modeling is essential for advancing intelligent digital twin representation of biomanufacturing, yet challenges persist due to complex intracellular regulation, stochastic system behavior, and limited experimental data. This paper introduces a symbolic and statistical learning framework to identify key regulatory mechanisms and quantify model uncertainty. Bioprocess dynamics is formulated with stochastic differential equations characterizing intrinsic process variability, with a predefined set of candidate regulatory mechanisms constructed from biological knowledge. A Bayesian learning approach is developed, which is based on a joint learning of kinetic parameters and regulatory structure through a formulation of the mixture model. To enhance computational efficiency, a Metropolis-adjusted Langevin algorithm with adjoint sensitivity analysis is developed for posterior exploration. Compared to state-of-the-art Bayesian inference approaches, the proposed framework achieves improved sample efficiency and robust model selection. An empirical study demonstrates its ability to recover missing regulatory mechanisms and improve model fidelity under data-limited conditions.

Membership Inference Attacks (MIAs) have recently been employed to determine whether a specific text was part of the pre-training data of Large Language Models (LLMs). However, existing methods often misinfer non-members as members, leading to a high false positive rate, or depend on additional reference models for probability calibration, which limits their practicality. To overcome these challenges, we introduce a novel framework called Automatic Calibration Membership Inference Attack (ACMIA), which utilizes a tunable temperature to calibrate output probabilities effectively. This approach is inspired by our theoretical insights into maximum likelihood estimation during the pre-training of LLMs. We introduce ACMIA in three configurations designed to accommodate different levels of model access and increase the probability gap between members and non-members, improving the reliability and robustness of membership inference. Extensive experiments on various open-source LLMs demonstrate that our proposed attack is highly effective, robust, and generalizable, surpassing state-of-the-art baselines across three widely used benchmarks. Our code is available at: Github. 1 Introduction Large Language Models (LLMs), pre-trained on massive text corpora, have shown impressive human-level language understanding, reasoning, and decision-making capabilities [4, 28, 1, 23]. However, their tendency to memorize training data also introduces significant ethical and security concerns [14, 31, 2, 21, 22].

Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) is pivotal in enhancing the robustness, reliability, and interpretability of Machine Learning (ML) systems for healthcare, optimizing resources and improving patient care. Despite the emergence of ML-based clinical decision support tools, the lack of principled quantification of uncertainty in ML models remains a major challenge. Current reviews have a narrow focus on analyzing the state-of-the-art UQ in specific healthcare domains without systematically evaluating method efficacy across different stages of model development, and despite a growing body of research, its implementation in healthcare applications remains limited. Therefore, in this survey, we provide a comprehensive analysis of current UQ in healthcare, offering an informed framework that highlights how different methods can be integrated into each stage of the ML pipeline including data processing, training and evaluation. We also highlight the most popular methods used in healthcare and novel approaches from other domains that hold potential for future adoption in the medical context. We expect this study will provide a clear overview of the challenges and opportunities of implementing UQ in the ML pipeline for healthcare, guiding researchers and practitioners in selecting suitable techniques to enhance the reliability, safety and trust from patients and clinicians on ML-driven healthcare solutions.

Cooperative transportation by multi-aerial robots has the potential to support various payloads and improve failsafe against dropping. Furthermore, changing the attachment positions of robots according payload characteristics increases the stability of transportation. However, there are almost no transportation systems capable of scaling to the payload weight and size and changing the optimal attachment positions. To address this issue, we propose a cooperative transportation system comprising autonomously executable software and suitable hardware, covering the entire process, from pre-takeoff setting to controlled flight. The proposed system decides the formation of the attachment positions by prioritizing controllability based on the center of gravity obtained from Bayesian estimations with robot pairs. We investigated the cooperative transportation of an unknown payload larger than that of whole carrier robots through numerical simulations. Furthermore, we performed cooperative transportation of an unknown payload (with a weight of about 3.2 kg and maximum length of 1.76 m) using eight robots. The proposed system was found to be versatile with regard to handling unknown payloads with different shapes and center-of-gravity positions.

The Markov Decision Process (MDP) is a popular framework for sequential decision-making problems, and uncertainty quantification is an essential component of it to learn optimal decision-making strategies. In particular, a Bayesian framework is used to maintain beliefs about the optimal decisions and the unknown ingredients of the model, which are also to be learned from the data, such as the rewards and state dynamics. However, many existing Bayesian approaches for learning the optimal decision-making strategy are based on unrealistic modelling assumptions and utilise approximate inference techniques. This raises doubts whether the benefits of Bayesian uncertainty quantification are fully realised or can be relied upon. We focus on infinite-horizon and undiscounted MDPs, with finite state and action spaces, and a terminal state. We provide a full Bayesian framework, from modelling to inference to decision-making. For modelling, we introduce a likelihood function with minimal assumptions for learning the optimal action-value function based on Bellman's optimality equations, analyse its properties, and clarify connections to existing works. For deterministic rewards, the likelihood is degenerate and we introduce artificial observation noise to relax it, in a controlled manner, to facilitate more efficient Monte Carlo-based inference. For inference, we propose an adaptive sequential Monte Carlo algorithm to both sample from and adjust the sequence of relaxed posterior distributions. For decision-making, we choose actions using samples from the posterior distribution over the optimal strategies. While commonly done, we provide new insight that clearly shows that it is a generalisation of Thompson sampling from multi-arm bandit problems. Finally, we evaluate our framework on the Deep Sea benchmark problem and demonstrate the exploration benefits of posterior sampling in MDPs.