Determinantal Point Process (DPP) is a flexible family of distributions for random sets defined on the finite state space { 1, ...,d }, or equivalently for multivariate binary variables. This family is parameterized by either the L-ensemble kernel Σ, which is symmetric positive definite (SPD), or the correlation kernel matrix K, which is SPD, with eigenvalues lying strictly between 0 and 1. The literature has considered the maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) of Σ and K or its algorithmic analogues (Affandi et al., 2014; Brunel et al., 2017a,b), but it has since been shown that i) the likelihood function has at least 2

Clustering of time series based on their underlying dynamics is keeping attracting researchers due to its impacts on assisting complex system modelling. Most current time series clustering methods handle only scalar time series, treat them as white noise, or rely on domain knowledge for high-quality feature construction, where the autocorrelation pattern/feature is mostly ignored. Instead of relying on heuristic feature/metric construction, the system identification approach allows treating vector time series clustering by explicitly considering their underlying autoregressive dynamics. We first derive a clustering algorithm based on a mixture autoregressive model. Unfortunately it turns out to have significant computational problems. We then derive a `small-noise' limiting version of the algorithm, which we call k-LMVAR (Limiting Mixture Vector AutoRegression), that is computationally manageable. We develop an associated BIC criterion for choosing the number of clusters and model order. The algorithm performs very well in comparative simulations and also scales well computationally.

Path planning is crucial for the navigation of autonomous vehicles, yet these vehicles face challenges in complex and real-world environments. Although a global view may be provided, it is often outdated, necessitating the reliance of Unmanned Ground Vehicles (UGVs) on real-time local information. This reliance on partial information, without considering the global context, can lead to UGVs getting stuck in local minima. This paper develops a method to proactively predict local minima using Dynamic Bayesian filtering, based on the detected obstacles in the local view and the global goal. This approach aims to enhance the autonomous navigation of self-driving vehicles by allowing them to predict potential pitfalls before they get stuck, and either ask for help from a human, or re-plan an alternate trajectory.

Neural networks are powerful tools for cognitive modeling due to their flexibility and emergent properties. However, interpreting their learned representations remains challenging due to their sub-symbolic semantics. In this work, we introduce a novel probabilistic framework for interpreting latent task representations in neural networks. Inspired by Bayesian inference, our approach defines a distribution over representational units to infer their causal contributions to task performance. Using ideas from information theory, we propose a suite of tools and metrics to illuminate key model properties, including representational distributedness, manifold complexity, and polysemanticity.

We consider the problem of sampling from a product-of-experts-type model that encompasses many standard prior and posterior distributions commonly found in Bayesian imaging. We show that this model can be easily lifted into a novel latent variable model, which we refer to as a Gaussian latent machine. This leads to a general sampling approach that unifies and generalizes many existing sampling algorithms in the literature. Most notably, it yields a highly efficient and effective two-block Gibbs sampling approach in the general case, while also specializing to direct sampling algorithms in particular cases. Finally, we present detailed numerical experiments that demonstrate the efficiency and effectiveness of our proposed sampling approach across a wide range of prior and posterior sampling problems from Bayesian imaging.

Transporting causal information learned from experiments in one population to another is a critical challenge in clinical research and decision-making. Causal transportability uses causal graphs to model differences between the source and target populations and identifies conditions under which causal effects learned from experiments can be reused in a different population. Similarly, causal identifiability identifies conditions under which causal effects can be estimated from observational data. However, these approaches rely on knowing the causal graph, which is often unavailable in real-world settings. In this work, we propose a Bayesian method for assessing whether Z-specific (conditional) causal effects are both identifiable and transportable, without knowing the causal graph. Our method combines experimental data from the source population with observational data from the target population to compute the probability that a causal effect is both identifiable from observational data and transportable. When this holds, we leverage both observational data from the target domain and experimental data from the source domain to obtain an unbiased, efficient estimator of the causal effect in the target population. Using simulations, we demonstrate that our method correctly identifies transportable causal effects and improves causal effect estimation.

Completely random measures (CRMs) are fundamental to Bayesian nonparametric models, with applications in clustering, feature allocation, and network analysis. A key quantity of interest is the Laplace exponent, whose asymptotic behavior determines how the random structures scale. When the Laplace exponent grows nearly linearly - known as rapid variation - the induced models exhibit approximately linear growth in the number of clusters, features, or edges with sample size or network nodes. This regime is especially relevant for modeling sparse networks, yet existing CRM constructions lack tractability under rapid variation. We address this by introducing a new class of CRMs with index of variation $α\in(0,1]$, defined as mixtures of stable or generalized gamma processes. These models offer interpretable parameters, include well-known CRMs as limiting cases, and retain analytical tractability through a tractable Laplace exponent and simple size-biased representation. We analyze the asymptotic properties of this CRM class and apply it to the Caron-Fox framework for sparse graphs. The resulting models produce networks with near-linear edge growth, aligning with empirical evidence from large-scale networks. Additionally, we present efficient algorithms for simulation and posterior inference, demonstrating practical advantages through experiments on real-world sparse network datasets.

We introduce a novel framework for differentially private (DP) statistical estimation via data truncation, addressing a key challenge in DP estimation when the data support is unbounded. Traditional approaches rely on problem-specific sensitivity analysis, limiting their applicability. By leveraging techniques from truncated statistics, we develop computationally efficient DP estimators for exponential family distributions, including Gaussian mean and covariance estimation, achieving near-optimal sample complexity. Previous works on exponential families only consider bounded or one-dimensional families. Our approach mitigates sensitivity through truncation while carefully correcting for the introduced bias using maximum likelihood estimation and DP stochastic gradient descent. Along the way, we establish improved uniform convergence guarantees for the log-likelihood function of exponential families, which may be of independent interest. Our results provide a general blueprint for DP algorithm design via truncated statistics.

This paper extends Bayesian probability theory by developing a multidimensional space of events (MDSE) theory that accounts for mutual influences between events and hypotheses sets. While traditional Bayesian approaches assume conditional independence between certain variables, real-world systems often exhibit complex interdependencies that limit classical model applicability. Building on established probabilistic foundations, our approach introduces a mathematical formalism for modeling these complex relationships. We developed the MDSE theory through rigorous mathematical derivation and validated it using three complementary methodologies: analytical proofs, computational simulations, and case studies drawn from diverse domains. Results demonstrate that MDSE successfully models complex dependencies with 15-20% improved prediction accuracy compared to standard Bayesian methods when applied to datasets with high interdimensionality. This theory particularly excels in scenarios with over 50 interrelated variables, where traditional methods show exponential computational complexity growth while MDSE maintains polynomial scaling. Our findings indicate that MDSE provides a viable mathematical foundation for extending Bayesian reasoning to complex systems while maintaining computational tractability. This approach offers practical applications in engineering challenges including risk assessment, resource optimization, and forecasting problems where multiple interdependent factors must be simultaneously considered.

Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) methods offer a principled approach to Bayesian uncertainty quantification but are traditionally limited by the need for full-batch gradient evaluations. We introduce a scalable variant by incorporating Stochastic Gradient Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (SGHMC) proposals into SMC, enabling efficient mini-batch based sampling. Our resulting SMCSGHMC algorithm outperforms standard stochastic gradient descent (SGD) and deep ensembles across image classification, out-of-distribution (OOD) detection, and transfer learning tasks. We further show that SMCSGHMC mitigates overfitting and improves calibration, providing a flexible, scalable pathway for converting pretrained neural networks into well-calibrated Bayesian models.