Regularization is one of the most fundamental topics in optimization, statistics and machine learning. To get sparsity in estimating a parameter u Rd, an ℓq penalty term, u q, is usually added to the objective function. What is the probabilistic distribution corresponding to such ℓq penalty? What is the correct stochastic process corresponding to u q when we model functions u Lq? This is important for statistically modeling high-dimensional objects such as images, with penalty to preserve certain properties, e.g.

Exact inference of marginals in probabilistic graphical models (PGM) is known to be intractable, necessitating the use of approximate methods. Most of the existing variational techniques perform iterative message passing in loopy graphs which is slow to converge for many benchmarks. In this paper, we propose a new algorithm for marginal inference that is based on the incremental build-infer-approximate (IBIA) paradigm. Our algorithm converts the PGM into a sequence of linked clique tree forests (SLCTF) with bounded clique sizes, and then uses a heuristic belief update algorithm to infer the marginals. For the special case of Bayesian networks, we show that if the incremental build step in IBIA uses the topological order of variables then (a) the prior marginals are consistent in all CTFs in the SLCTF and (b) the posterior marginals are consistent once all evidence variables are added to the SLCTF. In our approach, the belief propagation step is non-iterative and the accuracy-complexity trade-off is controlled using user-defined clique size bounds. Results for several benchmark sets from recent UAI competitions show that our method gives either better or comparable accuracy than existing variational and sampling based methods, with smaller runtimes.

Federated learning (FL), through its privacy-preserving collaborative learning approach, has significantly empowered decentralized devices. However, constraints in either data and/or computational resources among participating clients introduce several challenges in learning, including the inability to train large model architectures, heightened risks of overfitting, and more. In this work, we present a novel FL framework grounded in Bayesian learning to address these challenges. Our approach involves training personalized Bayesian models at each client tailored to the unique complexities of the clients' datasets and efficiently collaborating across these clients. By leveraging Bayesian neural networks and their uncertainty quantification capabilities, our local training procedure robustly learns from small datasets. And the novel collaboration procedure utilizing priors in the functional (output) space of the networks facilitates collaboration across models of varying sizes, enabling the framework to adapt well in heterogeneous data and computational settings. Furthermore, we present a differentially private version of the algorithm, accompanied by formal differential privacy guarantees that apply without any assumptions on the learning algorithm. Through experiments on popular FL datasets, we demonstrate that our approach outperforms strong baselines in both homogeneous and heterogeneous settings, and under strict privacy constraints.

Deep neural networks have been increasingly used in real-world applications, making it critical to ensure their ability to adapt to new, unseen data. In this paper, we study the generalization capability of neural networks trained with (stochastic) gradient flow. We establish a new connection between the loss dynamics of gradient flow and general kernel machines by proposing a new kernel, called loss path kernel. This kernel measures the similarity between two data points by evaluating the agreement between loss gradients along the path determined by the gradient flow. Based on this connection, we derive a new generalization upper bound that applies to general neural network architectures. This new bound is tight and strongly correlated with the true generalization error. We apply our results to guide the design of neural architecture search (NAS) and demonstrate favorable performance compared with state-of-the-art NAS algorithms through numerical experiments.

Humans have a powerful and mysterious capacity to reason. Working through a set of mental steps enables us to make inferences we would not be capable of making directly even though we get no additional data from the world. Similarly, when large language models generate intermediate steps (a chain of thought) before answering a question, they often produce better answers than they would directly. We investigate why and how chain-of-thought reasoning is useful in language models, testing the hypothesis that reasoning is effective when training data consists of overlapping local clusters of variables that influence each other strongly. These training conditions enable the chaining of accurate local inferences to estimate relationships between variables that were not seen together in training.

The health condition of components in civil infrastructures can be described by various discrete states according to their performance degradation. Inferring these states from measurable responses is typically an ill-posed inverse problem. Although Bayesian methods are well-suited to tackle such problems, computing the posterior probability density function (PDF) presents challenges. The likelihood function cannot be analytically formulated due to the unclear relationship between discrete states and structural responses, and the high-dimensional state parameters resulting from numerous components severely complicates the computation of the marginal likelihood function. To address these challenges, this study proposes a novel Bayesian inversion paradigm for discrete variables based on Probabilistic Graphical Models (PGMs). The Markov networks are employed as modeling tools, with model parameters learned from data and structural topology prior. It has been proved that inferring this PGM produces the same probabilistic estimation as the posterior PDF derived from Bayesian inference, which effectively solves the above challenges. The inference is accomplished by Graph Neural Networks (GNNs), and a graph property-based GNN training strategy is developed to enable accurate inference across varying graph scales, thereby significantly reducing the computational overhead in high-dimensional problems. Both synthetic and experimental data are used to validate the proposed framework

Data quality assessment is an essential step that ensures the reliability of the subsequent structural health monitoring (SHM) tasks. This study proposes a prediction deviation-based SHM data quality assessment method using a univariate implicit auto-regressive model, enabling outlier diagnosis and data cleaning. The proposed conditional diffusion model (CDM) augments the standard diffusion model with a conditional embedding module to incorporate temporal context, quartile normalization to mitigate distribution skew, and a Huber loss to enhance robustness against outliers. Within this univariate implicit autoregressive framework, each data point is assigned an outlier probability, quantifying its degree of "outlier-ness", and a global quality evaluation score is computed to characterize the overall dataset quality. Extensive case studies utilizing operational data from real-world structures demonstrate that the proposed framework significantly improves the accuracy of data quality assessment, outperforming other strong baselines representative of clustering, isolation-based, and deep reconstruction methods. The effectiveness and robustness of the proposed framework are further demonstrated by the findings of ablation experiments and hyperparameter analysis.

Deep learning methods have proved highly effective for classification and image recognition problems. In this paper, we ask whether this success can be transferred to hypothesis testing: if a neural network can distinguish, for example, an image of a handwritten digit from another, can it also distinguish an "image of a sample" (such as a scatter plot) generated under a given statistical model from one generated outside that model? Motivated by this idea, we propose a novel procedure called deep-testing, which approaches the classical inferential problem of hypothesis testing through deep learning. More specifically, the test statistic is a classification map learned by a deep neural network from simulated data satisfying the null and alternative hypotheses, leveraging its strong discriminating power to construct a highly powerful test. As a proof of concept, we apply deep-testing to the problem of independence testing, arguably one of the most important problems in statistics. In a large-scale simulation study, deep-testing achieves the highest overall power against nineteen competing methods across a broad range of complex dependence structures, confirming the viability of the proposed approach.

We propose a Bayesian encoder for metric learning. Rather than relying on neural amortization as done in prior works, we learn a distribution over the network weights with the Laplace Approximation. We first prove that the contrastive loss is a negative log-likelihood on the spherical space. We propose three methods that ensure a positive definite covariance matrix. Lastly, we present a novel decomposition of the Generalized Gauss-Newton approximation. Empirically, we show that our Laplacian Metric Learner (LAM) yields well-calibrated uncertainties, reliably detects out-of-distribution examples, and has state-of-the-art predictive performance.