The integration of solar power has been increasing as the green energy transition rolls out. The penetration of solar power challenges the grid stability and energy scheduling, due to its intermittent energy generation. Accurate and near real-time solar power prediction is of critical importance to tolerant and support the permeation of distributed and volatile solar power production in the energy system. In this paper, we propose a deep-learning based ultra-short-term solar power prediction with data reconstruction. We decompose the data for the prediction to facilitate extensive exploration of the spatial and temporal dependencies within the data. Particularly, we reconstruct the data into low- and high-frequency components, using ensemble empirical model decomposition with adaptive noise (CEEMDAN). We integrate meteorological data with those two components, and employ deep-learning models to capture long- and short-term dependencies towards the target prediction period. In this way, we excessively exploit the features in historical data in predicting a ultra-short-term solar power production. Furthermore, as ultra-short-term prediction is vulnerable to local optima, we modify the optimization in our deep-learning training by penalizing long prediction intervals. Numerical experiments with diverse settings demonstrate that, compared to baseline models, the proposed method achieves improved generalization in data reconstruction and higher prediction accuracy for ultra-short-term solar power production.

Successful teamwork depends on interpersonal dynamics, the ways in which individuals coordinate, influence, and adapt to one another over time. Existing measures of interpersonal dynamics, such as CRQA, correlation, Granger causality, and transfer entropy, typically capture only a single dimension: either the synchrony/coordination or the direction of influence between individuals. What is missing is a psychologically meaningful representation that unifies these dimensions and varies systematically with behavior. We propose the "context matrix" as one such representation. The context matrix, modeled within a linear dynamical system, has psychologically interpretable entries specifying how much each individual's current behavior is attributable to their own versus every other group member's past behaviors. Critically, these entries can be distilled into summary features that represent synchrony and directional influence. Evidence for the context matrix as psychologically meaningful is provided in two steps. First, we develop a sequential Bayesian model that infers context matrices from timeseries data and show that it accurately recovers them in noisy simulations. Second, applying the model to human eyetracking data, we demonstrate that summary features of the inferred context matrices capture expected task-based differences in interpersonal dynamics (or lack thereof), predict task accuracy in psychologically reasonable ways, and show some correspondence with existing measures (CRQA and Granger causality). We conclude by situating the context matrix within a broader agenda for modeling interpersonal dynamics in joint action.

Many constructs that characterize language, like its complexity or emotionality, have a naturally continuous semantic structure; a public speech is not just "simple" or "complex," but exists on a continuum between extremes. Although large language models (LLMs) are an attractive tool for measuring scalar constructs, their idiosyncratic treatment of numerical outputs raises questions of how to best apply them. We address these questions with a comprehensive evaluation of LLM-based approaches to scalar construct measurement in social science. Using multiple datasets sourced from the political science literature, we evaluate four approaches: unweighted direct pointwise scoring, aggregation of pairwise comparisons, token-probability-weighted pointwise scoring, and finetuning. Our study finds that pairwise comparisons made by LLMs produce better measurements than simply prompting the LLM to directly output the scores, which suffers from bunching around arbitrary numbers. However, taking the weighted mean over the token probability of scores further improves the measurements over the two previous approaches. Finally, finetuning smaller models with as few as 1,000 training pairs can match or exceed the performance of prompted LLMs.

Intelligent Tutoring Systems (ITS), such as Massive Open Online Courses, offer new opportunities for human learning. At the core of such systems, knowledge tracing (KT) predicts students' future performance by analyzing their historical learning activities, enabling an accurate evaluation of students' knowledge states over time. We show that existing KT methods often encounter correlation conflicts when analyzing the relationships between historical learning sequences and future performance. To address such conflicts, we propose to extract so-called Follow-up Performance Trends (FPTs) from historical ITS data and to incorporate them into KT. We propose a method called Forward-Looking Knowledge Tracing (FINER) that combines historical learning sequences with FPTs to enhance student performance prediction accuracy. FINER constructs learning patterns that facilitate the retrieval of FPTs from historical ITS data in linear time; FINER includes a novel similarity-aware attention mechanism that aggregates FPTs based on both frequency and contextual similarity; and FINER offers means of combining FPTs and historical learning sequences to enable more accurate prediction of student future performance. Experiments on six real-world datasets show that FINER can outperform ten state-of-the-art KT methods, increasing accuracy by 8.74% to 84.85%.

Entropic causal inference is a recent framework for learning the causal graph between two variables from observational data by finding the information-theoretically simplest structural explanation of the data, i.e., the model with smallest entropy. In our work, we first extend the causal graph identifiability result in the two-variable setting under relaxed assumptions. We then show the first identifiability result using the entropic approach for learning causal graphs with more than two nodes. Our approach utilizes the property that ancestrality between a source node and its descendants can be determined using the bivariate entropic tests. We provide a sound sequential peeling algorithm for general graphs that relies on this property. We also propose a heuristic algorithm for small graphs that shows strong empirical performance. We rigorously evaluate the performance of our algorithms on synthetic data generated from a variety of models, observing improvement over prior work. Finally we test our algorithms on real-world datasets.

We highlight a fundamental connection between information geometry and variational Bayes (VB) and discuss its consequences for machine learning. Under certain conditions, a VB solution always requires estimation or computation of natural gradients. We show several consequences of this fact by using the natural-gradient descent algorithm of Khan and Rue (2023) called the Bayesian Learning Rule (BLR). These include (i) a simplification of Bayes' rule as addition of natural gradients, (ii) a generalization of quadratic surrogates used in gradient-based methods, and (iii) a large-scale implementation of VB algorithms for large language models. Neither the connection nor its consequences are new but we further emphasize the common origins of the two fields of information geometry and Bayes with a hope to facilitate more work at the intersection of the two fields.

We consider the problem of estimating the directions of arrival (DOAs) of multiple sources from a single snapshot of an antenna array, a task with many practical applications. In such settings, the classical Bartlett beamformer is commonly used, as maximum likelihood estimation becomes impractical when the number of sources is unknown or large, and spectral methods based on the sample covariance are not applicable due to the lack of multiple snapshots. However, the accuracy and resolution of the Bartlett beamformer are fundamentally limited by the array aperture. In this paper, we propose a deep learning technique, comprising a novel architecture and training strategy, for generating a high-resolution spatial spectrum from a single snapshot. Specifically, we train a deep neural network that takes the measurements and a hypothesis angle as input and learns to output a score consistent with the capabilities of a much wider array. At inference time, a heatmap can be produced by scanning an arbitrary set of angles. We demonstrate the advantages of our trained model, named (SP)$^2$-Net, over the Bartlett beamformer and sparsity-based DOA estimation methods.

Abstract--Reconstructing building floor plans from point cloud data is a critical technology for indoor navigation, building information modeling (BIM), and highly accurate precise indoor measurement applications. Traditional methods, such as geometric algorithms and Mask R-CNN-based deep learning for mask segmentation, often suffer from sensitivity to noise, limited generalization, and loss of geometric details, severely impacting measurement accuracy. This study proposes an innovative framework, FloorSAM, that integrates room-height point cloud density maps with the guided segmentation capabilities of the Segment Anything Model (SAM) to enhance the precision of floor plan reconstruction from LiDAR point cloud data. By applying grid-based filtering to retain elevation point clouds near the ceiling of each region, combined with adaptive resolution projection and image enhancement techniques, a top-down density map is generated, improving the robustness and accuracy of spatial feature measurement. This framework leverages SAM's zero-shot learning to achieve high-fidelity room segmentation, remarkably enhancing reconstruction and measurement accuracy across diverse building layouts. Subsequently, leveraging SAM's zero-shot guided segmentation capabilities, high-quality room masks are generated based on adaptive prompt points, followed by a multistage filtering process to extract precise semantic masks for individual rooms. Through joint analysis of mask and point cloud modalities, contour extraction and regularization are performed, integrating semantic segmentation with geometric information to produce accurate room floor plans and recover topological relationships between rooms.

Abstract-- Global data association is an essential prerequisite for robot operation in environments seen at different times or by different robots. Repetitive or symmetric data creates significant challenges for existing methods, which typically rely on maximum likelihood estimation or maximum consensus to produce a single set of associations. However, in ambiguous scenarios, the distribution of solutions to global data association problems is often highly multimodal, and such single-solution approaches frequently fail. In this work, we introduce a data association framework that leverages approximate Bayesian inference to capture multiple solution modes to the data association problem, thereby avoiding premature commitment to a single solution under ambiguity. Our approach represents hypothetical solutions as particles that evolve according to a deterministic or randomized update rule to cover the modes of the underlying solution distribution. Furthermore, we show that our method can incorporate optimization constraints imposed by the data association formulation and directly benefit from GPU-parallelized optimization. Extensive simulated and real-world experiments with highly ambiguous data show that our method correctly estimates the distribution over transformations when registering point clouds or object maps. I. INTRODUCTION Data association is essential in many robotic applications, enabling key perception technologies such as dynamic object tracking [1]-[3] and simultaneous localization and mapping (SLAM) [4]-[6]. In these scenarios, robots must recognize when an object or feature they are currently observing is the same as something they (or another robot) may have seen from a different perspective. Without correct data association, the environment representation may be inconsistent, leading to undesirable behaviors in downstream tasks (e.g., incorrect associations in loop closure detection can lead to dramatically distorted maps [6]).

Predicting the distribution of future states in a stochastic system, known as belief propagation, is fundamental to reasoning under uncertainty. However, nonlinear dynamics often make analytical belief propagation intractable, requiring approximate methods. When the system model is unknown and must be learned from data, a key question arises: can we learn a model that (i) universally approximates general nonlinear stochastic dynamics, and (ii) supports analytical belief propagation? This paper establishes the theoretical foundations for a class of models that satisfy both properties. The proposed approach combines the expressiveness of normalizing flows for density estimation with the analytical tractability of Bernstein polynomials. Empirical results show the efficacy of our learned model over state-of-the-art data-driven methods for belief propagation, especially for highly non-linear systems with non-additive, non-Gaussian noise.