Quantifying uncertainty of machine learning model predictions is essential for reliable decision-making, especially in safety-critical applications. Recently, uncertainty quantification (UQ) theory has advanced significantly, building on a firm basis of learning with proper scoring rules. However, these advances were focused on classification, while extending these ideas to regression remains challenging. In this work, we introduce a unified UQ framework for regression based on proper scoring rules, such as CRPS, logarithmic, squared error, and quadratic scores. We derive closed-form expressions for the resulting uncertainty measures under practical parametric assumptions and show how to estimate them using ensembles of models. In particular, the derived uncertainty measures naturally decompose into aleatoric and epistemic components. The framework recovers popular regression UQ measures based on predictive variance and differential entropy. Our broad evaluation on synthetic and real-world regression datasets provides guidance for selecting reliable UQ measures.

Within the PAC-Bayesian framework, the Gibbs classifier (defined on a posterior $Q$) and the corresponding $Q$-weighted majority vote classifier are commonly used to analyze the generalization performance. However, there exists a notable lack in theoretical research exploring the certified robustness of majority vote classifier and its interplay with generalization. In this study, we develop a generalization error bound that possesses a certified robust radius for the smoothed majority vote classifier (i.e., the $Q$-weighted majority vote classifier with smoothed inputs); In other words, the generalization bound holds under any data perturbation within the certified robust radius. As a byproduct, we find that the underpinnings of both the generalization bound and the certified robust radius draw, in part, upon weight spectral norm, which thereby inspires the adoption of spectral regularization in smooth training to boost certified robustness. Utilizing the dimension-independent property of spherical Gaussian inputs in smooth training, we propose a novel and inexpensive spectral regularizer to enhance the smoothed majority vote classifier. In addition to the theoretical contribution, a set of empirical results is provided to substantiate the effectiveness of our proposed method.

Diffusion large language models (dLLMs) have shown great potential in large-scale language modeling, and there is an increasing interest in further improving the capacity to solve complex problems by guiding the reasoning process step by step. Common practice for autoregressive language models typically learns a process reward model with dense annotation for each intermediate step. However, this is challenging for dLLMs where the generation is in an any-order fashion and intermediate states are partially masked sentences. To this end, in this paper, we propose reward-free guidance (RFG), a principled method for guiding the reasoning trajectory of dLLMs without explicit process reward. The key idea of RFG is to parameterize the process reward by log-likelihood ratios of the enhanced and reference dLLMs, where the enhanced model can be easily obtained by any off-the-shelf dLLM that has been post-trained with reinforcement learning (RL) or supervised fine-tuning (SFT). We provide theoretical justification that RFG induces the reward-guided sampling distribution with no additional reward. We conduct comprehensive experiments on four challenging mathematical reasoning and code generation benchmarks using a diverse suite of dLLMs enhanced with various post-training methods. RFG consistently yields significant improvements across all tasks and model types, achieving accuracy gains of up to 9.2%. These findings establish RFG as a general training-free framework that scales test-time reasoning without reliance on external reward models. By scaling up mask-predict pretraining on large-scale corpora through bidirectional computation, dLLMs have shown surprisingly competitive or even superior performance over autoregressive (AR) model baselines (Prabhudesai et al., 2025). Despite the impressive advancements, the current success of dLLMs is primarily limited to pre-training or continue-training on a specific domain, with limited exploration in test-time computation and alignment.

This paper introduces mixsemble, an ensemble method that adapts the Dawid-Skene model to aggregate predictions from multiple model-based clustering algorithms. Unlike traditional crowdsourcing, which relies on human labels, the framework models the outputs of clustering algorithms as noisy annotations. Experiments on both simulated and real-world datasets show that, although the mixsemble is not always the single top performer, it consistently approaches the best result and avoids poor outcomes. This robustness makes it a practical alternative when the true data structure is unknown, especially for non-expert users.

We introduce learning to condition (L2C), a scalable, data-driven framework for accelerating Most Probable Explanation (MPE) inference in Probabilistic Graphical Models (PGMs), a fundamentally intractable problem. L2C trains a neural network to score variable-value assignments based on their utility for conditioning, given observed evidence. To facilitate supervised learning, we develop a scalable data generation pipeline that extracts training signals from the search traces of existing MPE solvers. The trained network serves as a heuristic that integrates with search algorithms, acting as a conditioning strategy prior to exact inference or as a branching and node selection policy within branch-and-bound solvers. We evaluate L2C on challenging MPE queries involving high-treewidth PGMs. Experiments show that our learned heuristic significantly reduces the search space while maintaining or improving solution quality over state-of-the-art methods.

Interventional causal discovery seeks to identify causal relations by leveraging distributional changes introduced by interventions, even in the presence of latent confounders. Beyond the spurious dependencies induced by latent confounders, we highlight a common yet often overlooked challenge in the problem due to post-treatment selection, in which samples are selectively included in datasets after interventions. This fundamental challenge widely exists in biological studies; for example, in gene expression analysis, both observational and interventional samples are retained only if they meet quality control criteria (e.g., highly active cells). Neglecting post-treatment selection may introduce spurious dependencies and distributional changes under interventions, which can mimic causal responses, thereby distorting causal discovery results and challenging existing causal formulations. To address this, we introduce a novel causal formulation that explicitly models post-treatment selection and reveals how its differential reactions to interventions can distinguish causal relations from selection patterns, allowing us to go beyond traditional equivalence classes toward the underlying true causal structure. We then characterize its Markov properties and propose a Fine-grained Interventional equivalence class, named FI-Markov equivalence, represented by a new graphical diagram, F-PAG. Finally, we develop a provably sound and complete algorithm, F-FCI, to identify causal relations, latent confounders, and post-treatment selection up to $\mathcal{FI}$-Markov equivalence, using both observational and interventional data. Experimental results on synthetic and real-world datasets demonstrate that our method recovers causal relations despite the presence of both selection and latent confounders.

Dictionary learning is traditionally formulated as an $L_1$-regularized signal reconstruction problem. While recent developments have incorporated discriminative, hierarchical, or generative structures, most approaches rely on encouraging representation sparsity over individual samples that overlook how atoms are shared across samples, resulting in redundant and sub-optimal dictionaries. We introduce a parsimony promoting regularizer based on the row-wise $L_\infty$ norm of the coefficient matrix. This additional penalty encourages entire rows of the coefficient matrix to vanish, thereby reducing the number of dictionary atoms activated across the dataset. We derive the formulation from a probabilistic model with Beta-Bernoulli priors, which provides a Bayesian interpretation linking the regularization parameters to prior distributions. We further establish theoretical calculation for optimal hyperparameter selection and connect our formulation to both Minimum Description Length, Bayesian model selection and pathlet learning. Extensive experiments on benchmark datasets demonstrate that our method achieves substantially improved reconstruction quality (with a 20\% reduction in RMSE) and enhanced representation sparsity, utilizing fewer than one-tenth of the available dictionary atoms, while empirically validating our theoretical analysis.

We introduce a new objective function for pool-based Bayesian active learning with probabilistic hypotheses. This objective function, called the policy Gibbs error, is the expected error rate of a random classifier drawn from the prior distribution on the examples adaptively selected by the active learning policy. Exact maximization of the policy Gibbs error is hard, so we propose a greedy strategy that maximizes the Gibbs error at each iteration, where the Gibbs error on an instance is the expected error of a random classifier selected from the posterior label distribution on that instance. We apply this maximum Gibbs error criterion to three active learning scenarios: non-adaptive, adaptive, and batch active learning. In each scenario, we prove that the criterion achieves near-maximal policy Gibbs error when constrained to a fixed budget.

Sampling inference methods are computationally difficult to scale for many models in part because global dependencies can reduce opportunities for parallel computation. Without strict conditional independence structure among variables, standard Gibbs sampling theory requires sample updates to be performed sequentially, even if dependence between most variables is not strong. Empirical work has shown that some models can be sampled effectively by going Hogwild'' and simply running Gibbs updates in parallel with only periodic global communication, but the successes and limitations of such a strategy are not well understood. As a step towards such an understanding, we study the Hogwild Gibbs sampling strategy in the context of Gaussian distributions. We develop a framework which provides convergence conditions and error bounds along with simple proofs and connections to methods in numerical linear algebra.

Learning the joint dependence of discrete variables is a fundamental problem in machine learning, with many applications including prediction, clustering and dimensionality reduction. More recently, the framework of copula modeling has gained popularity due to its modular parametrization of joint distributions. Among other properties, copulas provide a recipe for combining flexible models for univariate marginal distributions with parametric families suitable for potentially high dimensional dependence structures. More radically, the extended rank likelihood approach of Hoff (2007) bypasses learning marginal models completely when such information is ancillary to the learning task at hand as in, e.g., standard dimensionality reduction problems or copula parameter estimation. The main idea is to represent data by their observable rank statistics, ignoring any other information from the marginals. Inference is typically done in a Bayesian framework with Gaussian copulas, and it is complicated by the fact this implies sampling within a space where the number of constraints increase quadratically with the number of data points. The result is slow mixing when using off-the-shelf Gibbs sampling. We present an efficient algorithm based on recent advances on constrained Hamiltonian Markov chain Monte Carlo that is simple to implement and does not require paying for a quadratic cost in sample size.