Causal probabilistic networks have proved to be a useful knowledge representation tool for modelling domains where causal relations in a broad sense are a natural way of relating domain objects and where uncertainty is inherited in these relations. This paper outlines an implementation the HUGIN shell--for handling a domain model expressed by a causal probabilistic network. The only topological restriction imposed on the network is that, it must not contain any directed loops. The approach is illustrated step by step by solving a. genetic breeding problem. A graph representation of the domain model is interactively created by using instances of the basic network components—nodes and arcs—as building blocks. This structure, together with the quantitative relations between nodes and their immediate causes expressed as conditional probabilities, are automatically transformed into a tree structure, a junction tree. Here a computationally efficient and conceptually simple algebra of Bayesian belief universes supports incorporation of new evidence, propagation of information, and calculation of revised beliefs in the states of the nodes in the network. Finally, as an example of a real world application, MUN1N an expert system for electromyography is discussed.IJCAI-89, Vol. 2, pp. 1080–1085

Management Science, 35 (5), 527-50.

It can be shown that neural-like networks containing a single hidden layer of nonlinear activation units can learn to do a piece-wise linear partitioning of a feature space [2]. One result of such a partitioning is a complex gradient surface on which decisions about new input stimuli will be made. The generalization, categorization and clustering propenies of the network are therefore detennined by this mapping of input stimuli to this gradient swface in the output space. This gradient swface is a function of the conditional probability distributions of the output vectors given the input feature vectors as well as a function of the error relating the teacher signal and output.

An input vector in the feature space is transformed into an internal representation which is a codeword in the code space, and then error correction decoded in this space to classify the input feature vector to its class. Two classes of codes which give high performance are the Hadamard matrix code and the maximal length sequence code. We show that the number of classes stored in an N-neuron system is linear in N and significantly more than that obtainable by using the Hopfield type memory as a classifier. I. INTRODUCTION Associative recall using neural networks has recently received a great deal of attention. Hopfield in his papers [1,2) deSCribes a mechanism which iterates through a feedback loop and stabilizes at the memory element that is nearest the input, provided that not many memory vectors are stored in the machine. He has also shown that the number of memories that can be stored in an N-neuron system is about O.15N for N between 30 and 100. McEliece et al. in their work (3) showed that for synchronous operation of the Hopfield memory about N /(2IogN) data vectors can be stored reliably when N is large. Abu-Mostafa (4) has predicted that the upper bound for the number of data vectors in an N-neuron Hopfield machine is N. We believe that one should be able to devise a machine with M, the number of data vectors, linear in N and larger than the O.15N achieved by the Hopfield method.

It can be shown that neural-like networks containing a single hidden layer of nonlinear activation units can learn to do a piece-wise linear partitioning of a feature space [2]. One result of such a partitioning is a complex gradient surface on which decisions about new input stimuli will be made. The generalization, categorization and clustering propenies of the network are therefore detennined by this mapping of input stimuli to this gradient swface in the output space. This gradient swface is a function of the conditional probability distributions of the output vectors given the input feature vectors as well as a function of the error relating the teacher signal and output.

An input vector in the feature space is transformed into an internal representation which is a codeword in the code space, and then error correction decoded in this space to classify the input feature vector to its class. Two classes of codes which give high performance are the Hadamard matrix code and the maximal length sequence code. We show that the number of classes stored in an N-neuron system is linear in N and significantly more than that obtainable by using the Hopfield type memory as a classifier. I. INTRODUCTION Associative recall using neural networks has recently received a great deal of attention. Hopfield in his papers [1,2) deSCribes a mechanism which iterates through a feedback loop and stabilizes at the memory element that is nearest the input, provided that not many memory vectors are stored in the machine. He has also shown that the number of memories that can be stored in an N-neuron system is about O.15N for N between 30 and 100. McEliece et al. in their work (3) showed that for synchronous operation of the Hopfield memory about N /(2IogN) data vectors can be stored reliably when N is large. Abu-Mostafa (4) has predicted that the upper bound for the number of data vectors in an N-neuron Hopfield machine is N. We believe that one should be able to devise a machine with M, the number of data vectors, linear in N and larger than the O.15N achieved by the Hopfield method.

An input vector in the feature space is transformed into an internal representation which is a codeword in the code space, and then error correction decoded in this space to classify the input feature vector to its class. Two classes of codes which give high performance are the Hadamard matrix code and the maximal length sequence code. We show that the number of classes stored in an N-neuron system is linear in N and significantly more than that obtainable by using the Hopfield type memory as a classifier. I. INTRODUCTION Associative recall using neural networks has recently received a great deal of attention. Hopfield in his papers [1,2) deSCribes a mechanism which iterates through a feedback loop and stabilizes at the memory element that is nearest the input, provided that not many memory vectors are stored in the machine. He has also shown that the number of memories that can be stored in an N-neuron system is about O.15N for N between 30 and 100. McEliece et al. in their work (3) showed that for synchronous operation of the Hopfield memory about N/(2IogN) data vectors can be stored reliably when N is large. Abu-Mostafa (4) has predicted that the upper bound for the number of data vectors in an N-neuron Hopfield machine is N. We believe that one should be able to devise a machine with M, the number of data vectors, linear in N and larger than the O.15N achieved by the Hopfield method.

The Fourth Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence workshop was held 19-21 August 1988. The workshop featured significant developments in application of theories of representation and reasoning under uncertainty. A recurring idea at the workshop was the need to examine uncertainty calculi in the context of choosing representation, inference, and control methodologies. The effectiveness of these choices in AI systems tends to be best considered in terms of specific problem areas. These areas include automated planning, temporal reasoning, computer vision, medical diagnosis, fault detection, text analysis, distributed systems, and behavior of nonlinear systems. Influence diagrams are emerging as a unifying representation, enabling tool development. Interest and results in uncertainty in AI are growing beyond the capacity of a workshop format.

Despite their different perspectives, artificial intelligence (AI) and the disciplines of decision science have common roots and strive for similar goals. This paper surveys the potential for addressing problems in representation, inference, knowledge engineering, and explanation within the decision-theoretic framework. Recent analyses of the restrictions of several traditional AI reasoning techniques, coupled with the development of more tractable and expressive decision-theoretic representation and inference strategies, have stimulated renewed interest in decision theory and decision analysis. We describe early experience with simple probabilistic schemes for automated reasoning, review the dominant expert-system paradigm, and survey some recent research at the crossroads of AI and decision science. In particular, we present the belief network and influence diagram representations.

In Lemmer, J. F. and Kanal, L. N. (Eds.), UAI 2, pp. 149–163. Elsevier/North-Holland.