Choice-based conjoint analysis builds models of consumer preferences over products with answers gathered in questionnaires. Our main goal is to bring tools from the machine learning community to solve this problem more efficiently. Thus, we propose two algorithms to quickly and accurately estimate consumer preferences.

We present a competitive analysis of Bayesian learning algorithms in the online learning setting and show that many simple Bayesian algorithms (such as Gaussian linear regression and Bayesian logistic regression) perform favorably when compared, in retrospect, to the single best model in the model class. The analysis does not assume that the Bayesian algorithms' modeling assumptions are "correct," and our bounds hold even if the data is adversarially chosen. For Gaussian linear regression (using logloss), our error bounds are comparable to the best bounds in the online learning literature, and we also provide a lower bound showing that Gaussian linear regression is optimal in a certain worst case sense. We also give bounds for some widely used maximum a posteriori (MAP) estimation algorithms, including regularized logistic regression.

We propose the hierarchical Dirichlet process (HDP), a nonparametric Bayesian model for clustering problems involving multiple groups of data. Each group of data is modeled with a mixture, with the number of components being open-ended and inferred automatically by the model. Further, components can be shared across groups, allowing dependencies across groups to be modeled effectively as well as conferring generalization to new groups. Such grouped clustering problems occur often in practice, e.g. in the problem of topic discovery in document corpora. We report experimental results on three text corpora showing the effective and superior performance of the HDP over previous models.

We present a discriminative part-based approach for the recognition of object classes from unsegmented cluttered scenes. Objects are modeled as flexible constellations of parts conditioned on local observations found by an interest operator. For each object class the probability of a given assignment of parts to local features is modeled by a Conditional Random Field (CRF). We propose an extension of the CRF framework that incorporates hidden variables and combines class conditional CRFs into a unified framework for part-based object recognition. The parameters of the CRF are estimated in a maximum likelihood framework and recognition proceeds by finding the most likely class under our model. The main advantage of the proposed CRF framework is that it allows us to relax the assumption of conditional independence of the observed data (i.e.

There is growing evidence from psychophysical and neurophysiological studies that the brain utilizes Bayesian principles for inference and decision making. An important open question is how Bayesian inference for arbitrary graphical models can be implemented in networks of spiking neurons. In this paper, we show that recurrent networks of noisy integrate-and-fire neurons can perform approximate Bayesian inference for dynamic and hierarchical graphical models. The membrane potential dynamics of neurons is used to implement belief propagation in the log domain. The spiking probability of a neuron is shown to approximate the posterior probability of the preferred state encoded by the neuron, given past inputs. We illustrate the model using two examples: (1) a motion detection network in which the spiking probability of a direction-selective neuron becomes proportional to the posterior probability of motion in a preferred direction, and (2) a two-level hierarchical network that produces attentional effects similar to those observed in visual cortical areas V2 and V4. The hierarchical model offers a new Bayesian interpretation of attentional modulation in V2 and V4.

In this paper we propose a probabilistic model for online document clustering. We use nonparametric Dirichlet process prior to model the growing number of clusters, and use a prior of general English language model as the base distribution to handle the generation of novel clusters. Furthermore, cluster uncertainty is modeled with a Bayesian Dirichletmultinomial distribution. We use empirical Bayes method to estimate hyperparameters based on a historical dataset. Our probabilistic model is applied to the novelty detection task in Topic Detection and Tracking (TDT) and compared with existing approaches in the literature.

We discuss an identification framework for noisy speech mixtures. A block-based generative model is formulated that explicitly incorporates the time-varying harmonic plus noise (H N) model for a number of latent sources observed through noisy convolutive mixtures. All parameters including the pitches of the source signals, the amplitudes and phases of the sources, the mixing filters and the noise statistics are estimated by maximum likelihood, using an EMalgorithm. Exact averaging over the hidden sources is obtained using the Kalman smoother. We show that pitch estimation and source separation can be performed simultaneously. The pitch estimates are compared to laryngograph (EGG) measurements. Artificial and real room mixtures are used to demonstrate the viability of the approach. Intelligible speech signals are re-synthesized from the estimated H N models.

Protein interactions typically arise from a physical interaction of one or more small sites on the surface of the two proteins. Identifying these sites is very important for drug and protein design. In this paper, we propose a computational method based on probabilistic relational model that attempts to address this task using high-throughput protein interaction data and a set of short sequence motifs. We learn the model using the EM algorithm, with a branch-and-bound algorithm as an approximate inference for the E-step. Our method searches for motifs whose presence in a pair of interacting proteins can explain their observed interaction. It also tries to determine which motif pairs have high affinity, and can therefore lead to an interaction. We show that our method is more accurate than others at predicting new protein-protein interactions. More importantly, by examining solved structures of protein complexes, we find that 2/3 of the predicted active motifs correspond to actual interaction sites.

While clustering is usually an unsupervised operation, there are circumstances in which we believe (with varying degrees of certainty) that items A and B should be assigned to the same cluster, while items A and C should not. We would like such pairwise relations to influence cluster assignments of out-of-sample data in a manner consistent with the prior knowledge expressed in the training set. Our starting point is probabilistic clustering based on Gaussian mixture models (GMM) of the data distribution. We express clustering preferences in the prior distribution over assignments of data points to clusters. This prior penalizes cluster assignments according to the degree with which they violate the preferences. We fit the model parameters with EM. Experiments on a variety of data sets show that PPC can consistently improve clustering results.

Directed graphical models with one layer of observed random variables and one or more layers of hidden random variables have been the dominant modelling paradigm in many research fields. Although this approach has met with considerable success, the causal semantics of these models can make it difficult to infer the posterior distribution over the hidden variables. In this paper we propose an alternative two-layer model based on exponential family distributions and the semantics of undirected models. Inference in these "exponential family harmoniums" is fast while learning is performed by minimizing contrastive divergence. A member of this family is then studied as an alternative probabilistic model for latent semantic indexing. In experiments it is shown that they perform well on document retrieval tasks and provide an elegant solution to searching with keywords.