The Octopus arm is a highly versatile and complex limb. How the Octopus controls such a hyper-redundant arm (not to mention eight of them!) is as yet unknown. Robotic arms based on the same mechanical principles may render present day robotic arms obsolete. In this paper, we tackle this control problem using an online reinforcement learning algorithm, based on a Bayesian approach to policy evaluation known as Gaussian process temporal difference (GPTD) learning. Our substitute for the real arm is a computer simulation of a 2-dimensional model of an Octopus arm. Even with the simplifications inherent to this model, the state space we face is a high-dimensional one. We apply a GPTDbased algorithm to this domain, and demonstrate its operation on several learning tasks of varying degrees of difficulty.

We propose a new Bayesian method for spatial cluster detection, the "Bayesian spatial scan statistic," and compare this method to the standard (frequentist) scan statistic approach. We demonstrate that the Bayesian statistic has several advantages over the frequentist approach, including increased power to detect clusters and (since randomization testing is unnecessary) much faster runtime. We evaluate the Bayesian and frequentist methods on the task of prospective disease surveillance: detecting spatial clusters of disease cases resulting from emerging disease outbreaks. We demonstrate that our Bayesian methods are successful in rapidly detecting outbreaks while keeping number of false positives low.

We present a model that learns the influence of interacting Markov chains within a team. The proposed model is a dynamic Bayesian network (DBN) with a two-level structure: individual-level and group-level.

The misjudgement of tilt in images lies at the heart of entertaining visual illusions and rigorous perceptual psychophysics. A wealth of findings has attracted many mechanistic models, but few clear computational principles. We adopt a Bayesian approach to perceptual tilt estimation, showing how a smoothness prior offers a powerful way of addressing much confusing data. In particular, we faithfully model recent results showing that confidence in estimation can be systematically affected by the same aspects of images that affect bias. Confidence is central to Bayesian modeling approaches, and is applicable in many other perceptual domains. Perceptual anomalies and illusions, such as the misjudgements of motion and tilt evident in so many psychophysical experiments, have intrigued researchers for decades.

Functional Magnetic Resonance Imaging (fMRI) has enabled scientists to look into the active brain. However, interactivity between functional brain regions, is still little studied. In this paper, we contribute a novel framework for modeling the interactions between multiple active brain regions, using Dynamic Bayesian Networks (DBNs) as generative models for brain activation patterns. This framework is applied to modeling of neuronal circuits associated with reward. The novelty of our framework from a Machine Learning perspective lies in the use of DBNs to reveal the brain connectivity and interactivity. Such interactivity models which are derived from fMRI data are then validated through a group classification task.

We propose a probabilistic model based on Independent Component Analysis for learning multiple related tasks. In our model the task parameters are assumed to be generated from independent sources which account for the relatedness of the tasks. We use Laplace distributions to model hidden sources which makes it possible to identify the hidden, independent components instead of just modeling correlations. Furthermore, our model enjoys a sparsity property which makes it both parsimonious and robust. We also propose efficient algorithms for both empirical Bayes method and point estimation. Our experimental results on two multi-label text classification data sets show that the proposed approach is promising.

Sets", we consider the problem of retrieving items from a concept or cluster, given a query consisting of a few items from that cluster. We formulate this as a Bayesian inference problem and describe a very simple algorithm for solving it. Our algorithm uses a modelbased concept of a cluster and ranks items using a score which evaluates the marginal probability that each item belongs to a cluster containing the query items. For exponential family models with conjugate priors this marginal probability is a simple function of sufficient statistics. We focus on sparse binary data and show that our score can be evaluated exactly using a single sparse matrix multiplication, making it possible to apply our algorithm to very large datasets. We evaluate our algorithm on three datasets: retrieving movies from EachMovie, finding completions of author sets from the NIPS dataset, and finding completions of sets of words appearing in the Grolier encyclopedia.

We present a Bayesian framework for explaining how people reason about and predict the actions of an intentional agent, based on observing its behavior. Action-understanding is cast as a problem of inverting a probabilistic generative model, which assumes that agents tend to act rationally in order to achieve their goals given the constraints of their environment. Working in a simple sprite-world domain, we show how this model can be used to infer the goal of an agent and predict how the agent will act in novel situations or when environmental constraints change. The model provides a qualitative account of several kinds of inferences that preverbal infants have been shown to perform, and also fits quantitative predictions that adult observers make in a new experiment.

Given a redundant dictionary of basis vectors (or atoms), our goal is to find maximally sparse representations of signals. Previously, we have argued that a sparse Bayesian learning (SBL) framework is particularly well-suited for this task, showing that it has far fewer local minima than other Bayesian-inspired strategies. In this paper, we provide further evidence for this claim by proving a restricted equivalence condition, based on the distribution of the nonzero generating model weights, whereby the SBL solution will equal the maximally sparse representation. We also prove that if these nonzero weights are drawn from an approximate Jeffreys prior, then with probability approaching one, our equivalence condition is satisfied. Finally, we motivate the worst-case scenario for SBL and demonstrate that it is still better than the most widely used sparse representation algorithms.

Humans make optimal perceptual decisions in noisy and ambiguous conditions. Computations underlying such optimal behavior have been shown to rely on probabilistic inference according to generative models whose structure is usually taken to be known a priori. We argue that Bayesian model selection is ideal for inferring similar and even more complex model structures from experience. We find in experiments that humans learn subtle statistical properties of visual scenes in a completely unsupervised manner. We show that these findings are well captured by Bayesian model learning within a class of models that seek to explain observed variables by independent hidden causes.