We propose a probabilistic model based on Independent Component Analysis for learning multiple related tasks. In our model the task parameters are assumed to be generated from independent sources which account for the relatedness of the tasks. We use Laplace distributions to model hidden sources which makes it possible to identify the hidden, independent components instead of just modeling correlations. Furthermore, our model enjoys a sparsity property which makes it both parsimonious and robust. We also propose efficient algorithms for both empirical Bayes method and point estimation. Our experimental results on two multi-label text classification data sets show that the proposed approach is promising.

The observed physiological dynamics of an infant receiving intensive care are affected by many possible factors, including interventions to the baby, the operation of the monitoring equipment and the state of health. The Factorial Switching Kalman Filter can be used to infer the presence of such factors from a sequence of observations, and to estimate the true values where these observations have been corrupted. We apply this model to clinical time series data and show it to be effective in identifying a number of artifactual and physiological patterns.

Functional Magnetic Resonance Imaging (fMRI) has enabled scientists to look into the active brain. However, interactivity between functional brain regions, is still little studied. In this paper, we contribute a novel framework for modeling the interactions between multiple active brain regions, using Dynamic Bayesian Networks (DBNs) as generative models for brain activation patterns. This framework is applied to modeling of neuronal circuits associated with reward. The novelty of our framework from a Machine Learning perspective lies in the use of DBNs to reveal the brain connectivity and interactivity. Such interactivity models which are derived from fMRI data are then validated through a group classification task.

We show that linear generalizations of Rescorla-Wagner can perform Maximum Likelihood estimation of the parameters of all generative models for causal reasoning. Our approach involves augmenting variables to deal with conjunctions of causes, similar to the agumented model of Rescorla. Our results involve genericity assumptions on the distributions of causes. If these assumptions are violated, for example for the Cheng causal power theory, then we show that a linear Rescorla-Wagner can estimate the parameters of the model up to a nonlinear transformtion. Moreover, a nonlinear Rescorla-Wagner is able to estimate the parameters directly to within arbitrary accuracy. Previous results can be used to determine convergence and to estimate convergence rates.

We present a model that learns the influence of interacting Markov chains within a team. The proposed model is a dynamic Bayesian network (DBN) with a two-level structure: individual-level and group-level.

We discuss a method for obtaining a subject's a priori beliefs from his/her behavior in a psychophysics context, under the assumption that the behavior is (nearly) optimal from a Bayesian perspective. The method is nonparametric in the sense that we do not assume that the prior belongs to any fixed class of distributions (e.g., Gaussian). Despite this increased generality, the method is relatively simple to implement, being based in the simplest case on a linear programming algorithm, and more generally on a straightforward maximum likelihood or maximum a posteriori formulation, which turns out to be a convex optimization problem (with no non-global local maxima) in many important cases. In addition, we develop methods for analyzing the uncertainty of these estimates. We demonstrate the accuracy of the method in a simple simulated coin-flipping setting; in particular, the method is able to precisely track the evolution of the subject's posterior distribution as more and more data are observed. We close by briefly discussing an interesting connection to recent models of neural population coding.

The misjudgement of tilt in images lies at the heart of entertaining visual illusions and rigorous perceptual psychophysics. A wealth of findings has attracted many mechanistic models, but few clear computational principles. We adopt a Bayesian approach to perceptual tilt estimation, showing how a smoothness prior offers a powerful way of addressing much confusing data. In particular, we faithfully model recent results showing that confidence in estimation can be systematically affected by the same aspects of images that affect bias. Confidence is central to Bayesian modeling approaches, and is applicable in many other perceptual domains. Perceptual anomalies and illusions, such as the misjudgements of motion and tilt evident in so many psychophysical experiments, have intrigued researchers for decades.

An increasing number of projects in neuroscience requires the statistical analysis of high dimensional data sets, as, for instance, in predicting behavior from neural firing or in operating artificial devices from brain recordings in brain-machine interfaces. Linear analysis techniques remain prevalent in such cases, but classical linear regression approaches are often numerically too fragile in high dimensions. In this paper, we address the question of whether EMG data collected from arm movements of monkeys can be faithfully reconstructed with linear approaches from neural activity in primary motor cortex (M1). To achieve robust data analysis, we develop a full Bayesian approach to linear regression that automatically detects and excludes irrelevant features in the data, regularizing against overfitting. In comparison with ordinary least squares, stepwise regression, partial least squares, LASSO regression and a brute force combinatorial search for the most predictive input features in the data, we demonstrate that the new Bayesian method offers a superior mixture of characteristics in terms of regularization against overfitting, computational efficiency and ease of use, demonstrating its potential as a drop-in replacement for other linear regression techniques. As neuroscientific results, our analyses demonstrate that EMG data can be well predicted from M1 neurons, further opening the path for possible real-time interfaces between brains and machines.

Humans make optimal perceptual decisions in noisy and ambiguous conditions. Computations underlying such optimal behavior have been shown to rely on probabilistic inference according to generative models whose structure is usually taken to be known a priori. We argue that Bayesian model selection is ideal for inferring similar and even more complex model structures from experience. We find in experiments that humans learn subtle statistical properties of visual scenes in a completely unsupervised manner. We show that these findings are well captured by Bayesian model learning within a class of models that seek to explain observed variables by independent hidden causes.

We consider criteria for variational representations of non-Gaussian latent variables, and derive variational EM algorithms in general form. We establish a general equivalence among convex bounding methods, evidence based methods, and ensemble learning/Variational Bayes methods, which has previously been demonstrated only for particular cases.