Decision making lies at the very heart of many psychiatric diseases. It is also a central theoretical concern in a wide variety of fields and has undergone detailed, in-depth, analyses. We take as an example Major Depressive Disorder (MDD), applying insights from a Bayesian reinforcement learning framework. We focus on anhedonia and helplessness. Helplessness--a core element in the conceptualizations of MDD that has lead to major advances in its treatment, pharmacological and neurobiological understanding--is formalized as a simple prior over the outcome entropy of actions in uncertain environments.

Is accurate classification possible in the absence of hand-labeled data? This paper introduces the Monotonic Feature (MF) abstraction--where the probability of class membership increases monotonically with the MF's value. The paper proves that when an MF is given, PAC learning is possible with no hand-labeled data under certain assumptions. We argue that MFs arise naturally in a broad range of textual classification applications. On the classic "20 Newsgroups" data set, a learner given an MF and unlabeled data achieves classification accuracy equal to that of a state-of-the-art semi-supervised learner relying on 160 hand-labeled examples. Even when MFs are not given as input, their presence or absence can be determined from a small amount of hand-labeled data, which yields a new semi-supervised learning method that reduces error by 15% on the 20 Newsgroups data.

We explore a new Bayesian model for probabilistic grammars, a family of distributions over discrete structures that includes hidden Markov models and probabilistic context-free grammars. Our model extends the correlated topic model framework to probabilistic grammars, exploiting the logistic normal distribution as a prior over the grammar parameters. We derive a variational EM algorithm for that model, and then experiment with the task of unsupervised grammar induction for natural language dependency parsing. We show that our model achieves superior results over previous models that use different priors.

Decision making lies at the very heart of many psychiatric diseases. It is also a central theoretical concern in a wide variety of fields and has undergone detailed, in-depth, analyses. We take as an example Major Depressive Disorder (MDD), applying insights from a Bayesian reinforcement learning framework. We focus on anhedonia and helplessness. Helplessness--a core element in the conceptualizations ofMDD that has lead to major advances in its treatment, pharmacological and neurobiological understanding--is formalized as a simple prior over the outcome entropy of actions in uncertain environments.

Stochastic relational models (SRMs) [15] provide a rich family of choices for learning and predicting dyadic data between two sets of entities. The models generalize matrixfactorization to a supervised learning problem that utilizes attributes of entities in a hierarchical Bayesian framework. Previously variational Bayes inference wasapplied for SRMs, which is, however, not scalable when the size of either entity set grows to tens of thousands. In this paper, we introduce a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm for equivalent models of SRMs in order to scale the computation to very large dyadic data sets. Both superior scalability and predictive accuracy are demonstrated on a collaborative filtering problem, which involves tens of thousands users and half million items.

Nonparametric Bayesian models provide a framework for flexible probabilistic modelling of complex datasets. Unfortunately, Bayesian inference methods often require high-dimensional averages and can be slow to compute, especially with the potentially unbounded representations associated with nonparametric models. We address the challenge of scaling nonparametric Bayesian inference to the increasingly large datasets found in real-world applications, focusing on the case of parallelising inference in the Indian Buffet Process (IBP). Our approach divides a large data set between multiple processors. The processors use message passing to compute likelihoods in an asynchronous, distributed fashion and to propagate statistics about the global Bayesian posterior. This novel MCMC sampler is the first parallel inference scheme for IBP-based models, scaling to datasets orders of magnitude larger than had previously been possible.

We consider the problem of learning the structure of Ising models (pairwise binary Markov random fields) from i.i.d. samples. While several methods have been proposed to accomplish this task, their relative merits and limitations remain somewhat obscure. By analyzing a number of concrete examples, we show that low-complexity algorithms systematically fail when the Markov random field develops long-range correlations. More precisely, this phenomenon appears to be related to the Ising model phase transition (although it does not coincide with it).

We apply robust Bayesian decision theory to improve both generative and discriminative learners under bias in class proportions in labeled training data, when the true class proportions are unknown. For the generative case, we derive an entropy-based weighting that maximizes expected log likelihood under the worst-case true class proportions. For the discriminative case, we derive a multinomial logistic model that minimizes worst-case conditional log loss. We apply our theory to the modeling of species geographic distributions from presence data, an extreme case of label bias since there is no absence data. On a benchmark dataset, we find that entropy-based weighting offers an improvement over constant estimates of class proportions, consistently reducing log loss on unbiased test data.

The rest of the paper is organized as follows.

We consider the general problem of constructing nonparametric Bayesian models on infinite-dimensional random objects, such as functions, infinite graphs or infinite permutations. The problem has generated much interest in machine learning, where it is treated heuristically, but has not been studied in full generality in nonparametric Bayesian statistics, which tends to focus on models over probability distributions. Our approach applies a standard tool of stochastic process theory, the construction of stochastic processes from their finite-dimensional marginal distributions. The main contribution of the paper is a generalization of the classic Kolmogorov extension theorem to conditional probabilities. This extension allows a rigorous construction of nonparametric Bayesian models from systems of finite-dimensional, parametric Bayes equations. Using this approach, we show (i) how existence of a conjugate posterior for the nonparametric model can be guaranteed by choosing conjugate finite-dimensional models in the construction, (ii) how the mapping to the posterior parameters of the nonparametric model can be explicitly determined, and (iii) that the construction of conjugate models in essence requires the finite-dimensional models to be in the exponential family. As an application of our constructive framework, we derive a model on infinite permutations, the nonparametric Bayesian analogue of a model recently proposed for the analysis of rank data.