We present a novel method for inducing synchronous context free grammars (SCFGs) from a corpus of parallel string pairs. SCFGs can model equivalence between strings in terms of substitutions, insertions and deletions, and the reordering of sub-strings. We develop a non-parametric Bayesian model and apply it to a machine translation task, using priors to replace the various heuristics commonly used in this field. Using a variational Bayes training procedure, we learn the latent structure of translation equivalence through the induction of synchronous grammar categories for phrasal translations, showing improvements in translation performance over previously proposed maximum likelihood models.

Almost all successful machine learning algorithms and cognitive models require powerful representations capturing the features that are relevant to a particular problem. We draw on recent work in nonparametric Bayesian statistics to define a rational model of human feature learning that forms a featural representation from raw sensory data without pre-specifying the number of features. By comparing how the human perceptual system and our rational model use distributional and category information to infer feature representations, we seek to identify some of the forces that govern the process by which people separate and combine sensory primitives to form features.

We present a generative model for performing sparse probabilistic projections, which includes sparse principal component analysis and sparse canonical correlation analysis as special cases. Sparsity is enforced by means of automatic relevance determination or by imposing appropriate prior distributions, such as generalised hyperbolic distributions. We derive a variational Expectation-Maximisation algorithm for the estimation of the hyperparameters and show that our novel probabilistic approach compares favourably to existing techniques. We illustrate how the proposed method can be applied in the context of cryptoanalysis as a pre-processing tool for the construction of template attacks.

We describe an application of probabilistic modeling and inference technology to the problem of analyzing sensor data in the setting of an intensive care unit (ICU). In particular, we consider the arterial-line blood pressure sensor, which is subject to frequent data artifacts that cause false alarms in the ICU and make the raw data almost useless for automated decision making. The problem is complicated by the fact that the sensor data are averaged over fixed intervals whereas the events causing data artifacts may occur at any time and often have durations significantly shorter than the data collection interval. We show that careful modeling of the sensor, combined with a general technique for detecting sub-interval events and estimating their duration, enables detection of artifacts and accurate estimation of the underlying blood pressure values. Our model's performance identifying artifacts is superior to two other classifiers' and about as good as a physician's.

We present the Gaussian Process Density Sampler (GPDS), an exchangeable generative model for use in nonparametric Bayesian density estimation. Samples drawn from the GPDS are consistent with exact, independent samples from a fixed density function that is a transformation of a function drawn from a Gaussian process prior. Our formulation allows us to infer an unknown density from data using Markov chain Monte Carlo, which gives samples from the posterior distribution over density functions and from the predictive distribution on data space. We can also infer the hyperparameters of the Gaussian process. We compare this density modeling technique to several existing techniques on a toy problem and a skull-reconstruction task.

We use graphical models and structure learning to explore how people learn policies in sequential decision making tasks. Studies of sequential decision-making in humans frequently find suboptimal performance relative to an ideal actor that knows the graph model that generates reward in the environment. We argue that the learning problem humans face also involves learning the graph structure for reward generation in the environment. We formulate the structure learning problem using mixtures of reward models, and solve the optimal action selection problem using Bayesian Reinforcement Learning. We show that structure learning in one and two armed bandit problems produces many of the qualitative behaviors deemed suboptimal in previous studies. Our argument is supported by the results of experiments that demonstrate humans rapidly learn and exploit new reward structure.

We present a nonparametric Bayesian method for texture learning and synthesis. A texture image is represented by a 2D-Hidden Markov Model (2D-HMM) where the hidden states correspond to the cluster labeling of textons and the transition matrix encodes their spatial layout (the compatibility between adjacent textons). 2D-HMM is coupled with the Hierarchical Dirichlet process (HDP) which allows the number of textons and the complexity of transition matrix grow as the input texture becomes irregular. The HDP makes use of Dirichlet process prior which favors regular textures by penalizing the model complexity. This framework (HDP-2D-HMM) learns the texton vocabulary and their spatial layout jointly and automatically. The HDP-2D-HMM results in a compact representation of textures which allows fast texture synthesis with comparable rendering quality over the state-of-the-art image-based rendering methods. We also show that HDP-2D-HMM can be applied to perform image segmentation and synthesis.

The human brain can be described as containing a number of functional regions. For a given task, these regions, as well as the connections between them, play a key role in information processing in the brain. However, most existing multi-voxel pattern analysis approaches either treat multiple functional regions as one large uniform region or several independent regions, ignoring the connections between regions. In this paper, we propose to model such connections in an Hidden Conditional Random Field (HCRF) framework, where the classifier of one region of interest (ROI) makes predictions based on not only its voxels but also the classifier predictions from ROIs that it connects to. Furthermore, we propose a structural learning method in the HCRF framework to automatically uncover the connections between ROIs. Experiments on fMRI data acquired while human subjects viewing images of natural scenes show that our model can improve the top-level (the classifier combining information from all ROIs) and ROI-level prediction accuracy, as well as uncover some meaningful connections between ROIs.

There is a growing body of experimental evidence to suggest that the brain is capable of approximating optimal Bayesian inference in the face of noisy input stimuli. Despite this progress, the neural underpinnings of this computation are still poorly understood. In this paper we focus on the problem of Bayesian filtering of stochastic time series. In particular we introduce a novel neural network, derived from a line attractor architecture, whose dynamics map directly onto those of the Kalman Filter in the limit where the prediction error is small. When the prediction error is large we show that the network responds robustly to change-points in a way that is qualitatively compatible with the optimal Bayesian model. The model suggests ways in which probability distributions are encoded in the brain and makes a number of testable experimental predictions.

Across a wide range of cognitive tasks, recent experience influences behavior. For example, when individuals repeatedly perform a simple two-alternative forcedchoice task(2AFC), response latencies vary dramatically based on the immediately preceding trial sequence. These sequential effects have been interpreted as adaptation to the statistical structure of an uncertain, changing environment (e.g., Jones and Sieck, 2003; Mozer, Kinoshita, and Shettel, 2007; Yu and Cohen, 2008).The Dynamic Belief Model (DBM) (Yu and Cohen, 2008) explains sequential effects in 2AFC tasks as a rational consequence of a dynamic internal representation that tracks second-order statistics of the trial sequence (repetition rates) and predicts whether the upcoming trial will be a repetition or an alternation ofthe previous trial. Experimental results suggest that first-order statistics (base rates) also influence sequential effects. We propose a model that learns both first-and second-order sequence properties, each according to the basic principles ofthe DBM but under a unified inferential framework. This model, the Dynamic BeliefMixture Model (DBM2), obtains precise, parsimonious fits to data. Furthermore, the model predicts dissociations in behavioral (Maloney, Martello, Sahm, and Spillmann, 2005) and electrophysiological studies (Jentzsch and Sommer, 2002),supporting the psychological and neurobiological reality of its two components.