Many applications of causal inference, such as finding the relationship between stock prices and news reports, involve both discrete and continuous variables observed over time. Inference with these complex sets of temporal data, though, has remained difficult and required a number of simplifications. We show that recent approaches for inferring temporal relationships (represented as logical formulas) can be adapted for inference with continuous valued effects. Building on advances in logic, PCTLc (an extension of PCTL with numerical constraints) is introduced here to allow representation and inference of relationships with a mixture of discrete and continuous components. Then, finding significant relationships in the continuous case can be done using the conditional expectation of an effect, rather than its conditional probability. We evaluate this approach on both synthetically generated and actual financial market data, demonstrating that it can allow us to answer different questions than the discrete approach can.

This paper presents new results for the (partial) maximum a posteriori (MAP) problem in Bayesian networks, which is the problem of querying the most probable state configuration of some of the network variables given evidence. It is demonstrated that the problem remains hard even in networks with very simple topology, such as binary polytrees and simple trees (including the Naive Bayes structure), which extends previous complexity results. Furthermore, a Fully Polynomial Time Approximation Scheme for MAP in networks with bounded treewidth and bounded number of states per variable is developed. Approximation schemes were thought to be impossible, but here it is shown otherwise under the assumptions just mentioned, which are adopted in most applications.

In this paper, we tackle the challenges of multi-label classification by developing a general conditional dependency network model. The proposed model is a cyclic directed graphical model, which provides an intuitive representation for the dependencies among multiple label variables, and a well integrated framework for efficient model training using binary classifiers and label predictions using Gibbs sampling inference. Our experiments show the proposed conditional model can effectively exploit the label dependency to improve multi-label classification performance.

Despite the importance of academic advising to student This paper describes work related to stochastic modeling and success, academic advising services are often found to decision-theoretic (DT) planning methods applicable to the be inconsistent, and are often not treated as a high priority real-world domain of academic advising.

Learning to rank has received great attention in recent years as it plays a crucial role in information retrieval. The existing concept of learning to rank assumes that each training sample is associated with an instance and a reliable label. However, in practice, this assumption does not necessarily hold true. This study focuses on the learning to rank when each training instance is labeled by multiple annotators that may be unreliable. In such a scenario, no accurate labels can be obtained. This study proposes two learning approaches. One is to simply estimate the ground truth first and then to learn a ranking model with it. The second approach is a maximum likelihood learning approach which estimates the ground truth and learns the ranking model iteratively. The two approaches have been tested on both synthetic and real-world data. The results reveal that the maximum likelihood approach outperforms the first approach significantly and is comparable of achieving results with the learning model considering reliable labels. Further more, both the approaches have been applied for ranking the Web visual clutter.

Monitoring team activity is beneficial when human teams cooperate in the enactment of a joint plan. Monitoring allows teams to maintain awareness of each other's progress within the plan and it enables anticipation of information needs. Humans find this difficult, particularly in time-stressed and uncertain environments. In this paper we introduce a probabilistic model, based on Conditional Random Fields, to automatically recognise the composition of teams and the team activities in relation to a plan. The team composition and activities are recognised incrementally by interpreting a stream of spatio-temporal observations.

Topic models have a wide range of applications, including modeling of text documents, images, user preferences, product rankings, and many others. However, learning optimal models may be difficult, especially for large problems. The reason is that inference techniques such as Gibbs sampling often converge to suboptimal models due to the abundance of local minima in large datasets. In this paper, we propose a general method of improving the performance of topic models. The method, called 'grouping transform', works by introducing auxiliary variables which represent assignments of the original model tokens to groups. Using these auxiliary variables, it becomes possible to resample an entire group of tokens at a time. This allows the sampler to make larger state space moves. As a result, better models are learned and performance is improved. The proposed ideas are illustrated on several topic models and several text and image datasets. We show that the grouping transform significantly improves performance over standard models.

This paper formulates learning optimal Bayesian network as a shortest path finding problem. An A* search algorithm is introduced to solve the problem. With the guidance of a consistent heuristic, the algorithm learns an optimal Bayesian networkby only searching the most promising parts of the solution space. Empirical results show that the A*search algorithm significantly improves the time and space efficiency of existing methods on a set of benchmark datasets.

In this paper, we present BENCH (BiclusteringdrivenENsemble of Classifiers), an algorithm toconstruct an ensemble of classifiers through concurrentfeature and data point selection guided byunsupervised knowledge obtained from biclustering.BENCH is designed for underdeterminedproblems. In our experiments, we use Bayesian BeliefNetwork (BBN) classifiers as base classifiers inthe ensemble; however, BENCH can be applied toother classification models as well. We show thatBENCH is able to increase prediction accuracy ofa single classifier and traditional ensemble of classifiersby up to 15% on three microarray datasetsusing various weighting schemes for combining individualpredictions in the ensemble.

In many of the possible applications as well as the theoretical models of computational social choice,the agents’ preferences are represented as partialorders. In this paper, we extend the maximum likelihood approach for defining “optimal” voting rules to this setting. We consider distributions in which the pairwise comparisons / incomparabilities between alternatives are drawn i.i.d. We call suchmodels pairwise-independentmodels and show that they correspond to a class of voting rules that we call pairwise scoring rules. This generalizes rulessuch as Kemeny and Borda. Moreover, we show that Borda is the only pairwise scoring rule that satisfies neutrality, when the outcome space is the set of all alternatives. We then study which voting rules defined for linear orders can be extended to partial orders via our MLE model. We show that any weakly neutral outcome scoring rule (includingany ranking/candidate scoring rule) based onthe weighted majority graph can be represented as the MLE of a weakly neutral pairwise-independent model. Therefore, all such rules admit natural extensionsto profiles of partial orders. Finally, we propose a specific MLE model π k for generating a set of k winning alternatives, and study the computational complexity of winner determination for the MLE of π k .