The task of keyhole (unobtrusive) plan recognition is central to adaptive game AI. “Tech trees” or “build trees” are the core of real-time strategy (RTS) game strategic (long term) planning. This paper presents a generic and simple Bayesian model for RTS build tree prediction from noisy observations, which parameters are learned from replays (game logs). This unsupervised machine learning approach involves minimal work for the game developers as it leverage players’ data (com- mon in RTS). We applied it to StarCraft1 and showed that it yields high quality and robust predictions, that can feed an adaptive AI.

Interactive narrative environments offer significant potential for creating engaging narrative experiences that are tailored to individual users. Increasingly, applications in education, training, and entertainment are leveraging narrative to create rich interactive experiences in virtual storyworlds. A key challenge posed by these environments is devising accurate models of director agents’ strategies that determine the most appropriate director action to perform for crafting customized story experiences. A promising approach is developing an empirically informed model of director agents’ decision-making strategies. In this paper, we propose a framework for learning models of director agent decision-making strategies by observing human-human interactions in an interactive narrative-centered learning environment. The results are encouraging and suggest that creating empirically driven models of director agent decision-making is a promising approach to interactive narrative.

Probabilistic models were fit to logs of player actions in the card game Dominion in an attempt to find evidence of personality types that could be used to classify player behavior as well as generate probabilistic bot behavior. Expectation Maximization seeded with players' self-assessments for their motivations was run for two different model types — Naive Bayes and a trigram model — to uncover three clusters each. For both model structures, most players were classified as belonging to a single large cluster that combined the goals of splashy plays, clever combos, and effective play, cross-cutting the original categories — a cautionary tale for research that assumes players can be classified into one category or another. However, subjects qualitatively report that the different model structures play very differently, with the Naive Bayes model more creatively combining cards.

We apply decision theoretic techniques to construct non-player characters that are able to assist a human player in collaborative games. The method is based on solving Markov decision processes, which can be difficult when the game state is described by many variables. To scale to more complex games, the method allows decomposition of a game task into subtasks, each of which can be modelled by a Markov decision process. Intention recognition is used to infer the subtask that the human is currently performing, allowing the helper to assist the human in performing the correct task. Experiments show that the method can be effective, giving near-human level performance in helping a human in a collaborative game.

We consider the problem of learning the structure of Ising models (pairwise binary Markov random fields) from i.i.d. samples. While several methods have been proposed to accomplish this task, their relative merits and limitations remain somewhat obscure. By analyzing a number of concrete examples, we show that low-complexity algorithms often fail when the Markov random field develops long-range correlations. More precisely, this phenomenon appears to be related to the Ising model phase transition (although it does not coincide with it).

In this paper we propose a data intensive approach for inferring sentence-internal temporal relations. Temporal inference is relevant for practical NLP applications which either extract or synthesize temporal information (e.g., summarisation, question answering). Our method bypasses the need for manual coding by exploiting the presence of markers like after", which overtly signal a temporal relation. We first show that models trained on main and subordinate clauses connected with a temporal marker achieve good performance on a pseudo-disambiguation task simulating temporal inference (during testing the temporal marker is treated as unseen and the models must select the right marker from a set of possible candidates). Secondly, we assess whether the proposed approach holds promise for the semi-automatic creation of temporal annotations. Specifically, we use a model trained on noisy and approximate data (i.e., main and subordinate clauses) to predict intra-sentential relations present in TimeBank, a corpus annotated rich temporal information. Our experiments compare and contrast several probabilistic models differing in their feature space, linguistic assumptions and data requirements. We evaluate performance against gold standard corpora and also against human subjects.

Modelling the real world complexity of music is a challenge for machine learning. We address the task of modeling melodic sequences from the same music genre. We perform a comparative analysis of two probabilistic models; a Dirichlet Variable Length Markov Model (Dirichlet-VMM) and a Time Convolutional Restricted Boltzmann Machine (TC-RBM). We show that the TC-RBM learns descriptive music features, such as underlying chords and typical melody transitions and dynamics. We assess the models for future prediction and compare their performance to a VMM, which is the current state of the art in melody generation. We show that both models perform significantly better than the VMM, with the Dirichlet-VMM marginally outperforming the TC-RBM. Finally, we evaluate the short order statistics of the models, using the Kullback-Leibler divergence between test sequences and model samples, and show that our proposed methods match the statistics of the music genre significantly better than the VMM.

A nonparametric kernel-based method for realizing Bayes' rule is proposed, based on representations of probabilities in reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces. Probabilities are uniquely characterized by the mean of the canonical map to the RKHS. The prior and conditional probabilities are expressed in terms of RKHS functions of an empirical sample: no explicit parametric model is needed for these quantities. The posterior is likewise an RKHS mean of a weighted sample. The estimator for the expectation of a function of the posterior is derived, and rates of consistency are shown. Some representative applications of the kernel Bayes' rule are presented, including Baysian computation without likelihood and filtering with a nonparametric state-space model.

In a peer-to-peer inference system, each peer can reason locally but can also solicit some of its acquaintances, which are peers sharing part of its vocabulary. In this paper, we consider peer-to-peer inference systems in which the local theory of each peer is a set of propositional clauses defined upon a local vocabulary. An important characteristic of peer-to-peer inference systems is that the global theory (the union of all peer theories) is not known (as opposed to partition-based reasoning systems). The main contribution of this paper is to provide the first consequence finding algorithm in a peer-to-peer setting: DeCA. It is anytime and computes consequences gradually from the solicited peer to peers that are more and more distant. We exhibit a sufficient condition on the acquaintance graph of the peer-to-peer inference system for guaranteeing the completeness of this algorithm. Another important contribution is to apply this general distributed reasoning setting to the setting of the Semantic Web through the Somewhere semantic peer-to-peer data management system. The last contribution of this paper is to provide an experimental analysis of the scalability of the peer-to-peer infrastructure that we propose, on large networks of 1000 peers.

In this paper, we extend Meek's conjecture (Meek 1997) from directed and acyclic graphs to chain graphs, and prove that the extended conjecture is true. Specifically, we prove that if a chain graph H is an independence map of the independence model induced by another chain graph G, then (i) G can be transformed into H by a sequence of directed and undirected edge additions and feasible splits and mergings, and (ii) after each operation in the sequence H remains an independence map of the independence model induced by G. Our result has the same important consequence for learning chain graphs from data as the proof of Meek's conjecture in (Chickering 2002) had for learning Bayesian networks from data: It makes it possible to develop efficient and asymptotically correct learning algorithms under mild assumptions.