In this work we present an advanced Bayesian formulation to the task of control learning that employs the Relevance Vector Machines (RVM) generative model for value function evaluation. The key aspect of the proposed method is the design of the discount return as a generalized linear model that constitutes a well-known probabilistic approach. This allows to augment the model with advantageous sparse priors provided by the RVM's regression framework. We have also taken into account the significant issue of selecting the proper parameters of the kernel design matrix. Experiments have shown that our method produces improved performance in both simulated and real test environments.

We focus on a class of models used for representing the dynamics between a discrete set of probabilistic events in a continuous-time setting. The proposed framework offers tractable learning and inference procedures and provides compact state representations for processes which exhibit variable delays between events. The approach is applied to a heart sound labeling task that exhibits long-range dependencies on previous events, and in which explicit modeling of the rhythm timings is justifiable by cardiological principles.

We address the problem of building a continuous occupancy representation of the environment with ranging sensors. Observations from such sensors provide two types of information: a line segment or a beam indicating no returns along them (free-space); a point or return at the end of the segment representing an occupied surface. To model these two types of observations in a principled statistical manner, we propose a novel methodology based on integral kernels. We show that integral kernels can be directly incorporated into a Gaussian process classification (GPC) framework to provide a continuous non-parametric Bayesian estimation of occupancy. Directly handling line segment and point observations avoids the need to discretise segments into points, reducing the computational cost of GPC inference and learning. We present experiments on 2D and 3D datasets demonstrating the benefits of the approach.

The automated processing of multiple seismic signals to detect and localize seismic events is a central tool in both geophysics and nuclear treaty verification. This paper reports on a project, begun in 2009, to reformulate this problem in a Bayesian framework. A Bayesian seismic monitoring system, NET-VISA, has been built comprising a spatial event prior and generative models of event transmission and detection, as well as an inference algorithm. Applied in the context of the International Monitoring System (IMS), a global sensor network developed for the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT), NET-VISA achieves a reduction of around 50% in the number of missed events compared to the currently deployed system. It also finds events that are missed even by the human analysts who post-process the IMS output.

In order to better protect and conserve biodiversity, ecologists use machine learning and statistics to understand how species respond to their environment and to predict how they will respond to future climate change, habitat loss and other threats. A fundamental modeling task is to estimate the probability that a given species is present in (or uses) a site, conditional on environmental variables such as precipitation and temperature. For a limited number of species, survey data consisting of both presence and absence records are available, and can be used to fit a variety of conventional classification and regression models. For most species, however, the available data consist only of occurrence records --- locations where the species has been observed. In two closely-related but separate bodies of ecological literature, diverse special-purpose models have been developed that contrast occurrence data with a random sample of available environmental conditions. The most widespread statistical approaches involve either fitting an exponential model of species' conditional probability of presence, or fitting a naive logistic model in which the random sample of available conditions is treated as absence data; both approaches have well-known drawbacks, and do not necessarily produce valid probabilities. After summarizing existing methods, we overcome their drawbacks by introducing a new scaled binomial loss function for estimating an underlying logistic model of species presence/absence. Like the Expectation-Maximization approach of Ward et al. and the method of Steinberg and Cardell, our approach requires an estimate of population prevalence, $\Pr(y=1)$, since prevalence is not identifiable from occurrence data alone. In contrast to the latter two methods, our loss function is straightforward to integrate into a variety of existing modeling frameworks such as generalized linear and additive models and boosted regression trees. We also demonstrate that approaches by Lele and Keim and by Lancaster and Imbens that surmount the identifiability issue by making parametric data assumptions do not typically produce valid probability estimates.

Consider the problem of protecting endangered species by selecting patches of land to be used for conservation purposes. Typically, the availability of patches changes over time, and recommendations must be made dynamically. This is a challenging prototypical example of a sequential optimization problem under uncertainty in computational sustainability. Existing techniques do not scale to problems of realistic size. In this paper, we develop an efficient algorithm for adaptively making recommendations for dynamic conservation planning, and prove that it obtains near-optimal performance. We further evaluate our approach on a detailed reserve design case study of conservation planning for three rare species in the Pacific Northwest of the United States.

Sentiment analysis is the task of determining the attitude (positive or negative) of documents. While the polarity of words in the documents is informative for this task, polarity of some words cannot be determined without domain knowledge. Detecting word polarity thus poses a challenge for multiple-domain sentiment analysis. Previous approaches tackle this problem with transfer learning techniques, but they cannot handle multiple source domains and multiple target domains. This paper proposes a novel Bayesian probabilistic model to handle multiple source and multiple target domains. In this model, each word is associated with three factors: Domain label, domain dependence/independence and word polarity. We derive an efficient algorithm using Gibbs sampling for inferring the parameters of the model, from both labeled and unlabeled texts. Using real data, we demonstrate the effectiveness of our model in a document polarity classification task compared with a method not considering the differences between domains. Moreover our method can also tell whether each word's polarity is domain-dependent or domain-independent. This feature allows us to construct a word polarity dictionary for each domain.

Question and answer pairs in Community Question Answering (CQA) services are organized into hierarchical structures or taxonomies to facilitate users to find the answers for their questions conveniently. We observe that different CQA services have their own knowledge focus and used different taxonomies to organize their question and answer pairs in their archives. As there are no simple semantic mappings between the taxonomies of the CQA services, the integration of CQA services is a challenging task. The existing approaches on integrating taxonomies ignore the hierarchical structures of the source taxonomy. In this paper, we propose a novel approach that is capable of incorporating the parent-child and sibling information in the hierarchical structures of the source taxonomy for accurate taxonomy integration. Our experimental results with real world CQA data demonstrate that the proposed method significantly outperforms state-of-the-art methods.

We present a novel approach for identifying exact and approximate behavioral equivalence between models of agents. This is significant because both decision making and game play in multiagent settings must contend with behavioral models of other agents in order to predict their actions. One approach that reduces the complexity of the model space is to group models that are behaviorally equivalent. Identifying equivalence between models requires solving them and comparing entire policy trees. Because the trees grow exponentially with the horizon, our approach is to focus on partial policy trees for comparison and determining the distance between updated beliefs at the leaves of the trees. We propose a principled way to determine how much of the policy trees to consider, which trades off solution quality for efficiency. We investigate this approach in the context of the interactive dynamic influence diagram and evaluate its performance.

We describe a memory-efficient implementation of a dynamic programming algorithm for learning the optimal structure of a Bayesian network from training data. The algorithm leverages the layered structure of the dynamic programming graphs representing the recursive decomposition of the problem to reduce the memory requirements of the algorithm from O(n2 n ) to O(C(n, n/2)), where C(n, n/2) is the binomial coefficient. Experimental results show that the approach runs up to an order of magnitude faster and scales to datasets with more variables than previous approaches.