In this paper, we outline a system for evaluating the performance of scientific research across a number of outcome metrics (e.g. publications, sales, new hires). Our system is designed to classify research performance into a number of metrics, evaluate each metric’s performance using only data on other metrics, and to cast predictions of future performance by metric. This study shows how data mining techniques can be used to provide a predictive analytic approach to the management of resources for scientific research.

Conversational case-based reasoning systems use an interactive dialog to retrieve stored cases. Normally the ordering of questions in this dialog is chosen based only on their discriminativeness. However, because the user may not be able to answer all questions, even highly discriminative questions are not guaranteed to provide information. This paper presents a customization method CCBR systems can apply to adjust entropy-based discriminativeness considerations by predictions of user ability to answer questions. The method uses a naive Bayesian classifier to classify users into user groups based on the questions they answer, applies information from group profiles to predict which future questions they are likely to be able to answer, and selects the next questions to ask based on a combination of information gain and response likelihood. The method was evaluated for a mix of simulated user groups, each associated with particular probabilities for answering questions about each case indexing feature, in four sample domains. For simulated users with varying abilities to answer particular questions, results showed improvement in dialog length over a non-customized entropy-based approach in all test domains.

Are the words that people use indicative of their personality type preferences? In this paper, it is hypothesized that word-usage is not independent of personality type, as measured by the Myers-Briggs Type Indicator (MBTI) personality assessment tool. In-class writing samples were taken from 40 graduate students along with the MBTI. The experiment utilizes naïve Bayes classifiers and Support Vector Machines (SVMs) in an attempt to guess an individual’s personality type based on their word-choice. Classification is also attempted using emotional, social, cognitive, and psychological dimensions elicited by the analysis software, Linguistic Inquiry and Word Count (LIWC). The classifiers are evaluated with 40 distinct trials (leave-one-out cross validation), and parameters are chosen using leave-one-out cross validation of each trial’s training set. The experiment showed that the naïve Bayes classifiers (word-based and LIWC-based) outperformed the SVMs when guessing Sensing-Intuition (S-N) and Thinking-Feeling (T-F).

When analysing social media conversations, in search of the public opinion about an unfolding event that is be- ing discussed in real-time (e.g., presidential debates, major speeches, etc.), it is important to distinguish between two groups of participants: opinion-makers and opinion-holders. To address this problem, we propose a supervised machine-learning approach, which uses inexpensively acquired labeled data from monothematic Twitter accounts to learn a binary classifier for the labels “political account” (opinion-makers) and “non-political account” (opinion-holders). While the classifier has a 83% accuracy on individual tweets, when applied to the last 200 tweets from accounts of a set of 1000 Twitter users, it classifies accounts with a 97% accuracy. This high accuracy derives from our decision to incorporate information about classifier probability into the classification. Our work demonstrates that machine learning algorithms can play a critical role in improving the quality of social media analytics and understanding, whose importance is increasing as social media adoption becomes widespread.

This work discusses the problem of sparse signal recovery when there is correlation among the values of non-zero entries. We examine intra-vector correlation in the context of the block sparse model and inter-vector correlation in the context of the multiple measurement vector model, as well as their combination. Algorithms based on the sparse Bayesian learning are presented and the benefits of incorporating correlation at the algorithm level are discussed. The impact of correlation on the limits of support recovery is also discussed highlighting the different impact intra-vector and inter-vector correlations have on such limits.

Interpreting neural spike trains, compressing video, identifying features in DNA microarrays, and recognizing particles in high energy physics all rely upon the ability to find and model complex structure in a high dimensional space. Despite their great promise, high dimensional probabilistic models are frequently computationally intractable to work with in practice. In this thesis I develop solutions to overcome this intractability, primarily in the context of energy based models. A common cause of intractability is that model distributions cannot be analytically normalized. Probabilities can only be computed up to a constant, making training exceedingly difficult. To solve this problem I propose'minimum probability flow learning', a variational technique for parameter estimation in such models.

For successful experimental implementation of any quantum protocol, the quantum states and operations involved must be confirmed to be sufficiently closed to their theoretical targets. One way to obtain such a confirmation is to perform another experiment and from the obtained data make an estimate of the quantum operator involved. Statistically, this is a constrained multiparameter estimation problem - the quantum estimation problem - where we assume we are given a finite number of identical copies of a quantum state or operation, we perform measurements whose mathematical description is assumed to be known, and from the outcome statistics we make our estimate. Due to the probabilistic behavior of the measurement outcomes and the finiteness of the number of measurement trials, there always exist statistical errors in any quantum estimate. The size of the error depends on the choice of measurements and the estimation procedure. In statistics, the former is called an experimental design, while the latter is called an estimator. It is, therefore, a key aim of both classical and quantum estimation theory to find a combination of experimental design and estimator which gives us more precise estimation results using fewer measurement trials. A standard combination in quantum information experiments is that of quantum tomography and maximum likelihood estimator. Although the term "quantum tomography" can be used in several different contexts, we use it to mean an experimental design in which an independently and identically prepared set of measurements are used throughout the entire experiment [1].

Orseau and Ring, as well as Dewey, have recently described problems, including self-delusion, with the behavior of agents using various definitions of utility functions. An agent's utility function is defined in terms of the agent's history of interactions with its environment. This paper argues, via two examples, that the behavior problems can be avoided by formulating the utility function in two steps: 1) inferring a model of the environment from interactions, and 2) computing utility as a function of the environment model. Basing a utility function on a model that the agent must learn implies that the utility function must initially be expressed in terms of specifications to be matched to structures in the learned model. These specifications constitute prior assumptions about the environment so this approach will not work with arbitrary environments. But the approach should work for agents designed by humans to act in the physical world. The paper also addresses the issue of self-modifying agents and shows that if provided with the possibility to modify their utility functions agents will not choose to do so, under some usual assumptions.

A major benefit of graphical models is that most knowledge is captured in the model structure. Many models, however, produce inference problems with a lot of symmetries not reflected in the graphical structure and hence not exploitable by efficient inference techniques such as belief propagation (BP). In this paper, we present a new and simple BP algorithm, called counting BP, that exploits such additional symmetries. Starting from a given factor graph, counting BP first constructs a compressed factor graph of clusternodes and clusterfactors, corresponding to sets of nodes and factors that are indistinguishable given the evidence. Then it runs a modified BP algorithm on the compressed graph that is equivalent to running BP on the original factor graph. Our experiments show that counting BP is applicable to a variety of important AI tasks such as (dynamic) relational models and boolean model counting, and that significant efficiency gains are obtainable, often by orders of magnitude.

We demonstrate that a number of sociology models for social network dynamics can be viewed as continuous time Bayesian networks (CTBNs). A sampling-based approximate inference method for CTBNs can be used as the basis of an expectation-maximization procedure that achieves better accuracy in estimating the parameters of the model than the standard method of moments algorithmfromthe sociology literature. We extend the existing social network models to allow for indirect and asynchronous observations of the links. A Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling algorithm for this new model permits estimation and inference. We provide results on both a synthetic network (for verification) and real social network data.