Hybrid continuous-discrete models naturally represent many real-world applications in robotics, finance, and environmental engineering. Inference with large-scale models is challenging because relational structures deteriorate rapidly during inference with observations. The main contribution of this paper is an efficient relational variational inference algorithm that factors largescale probability models into simpler variational models, composed of mixtures of iid (Bernoulli) random variables. The algorithm takes probability relational models of largescale hybrid systems and converts them to a close-to-optimal variational models. Then, it efficiently calculates marginal probabilities on the variational models by using a latent (or lifted) variable elimination or a lifted stochastic sampling. This inference is unique because it maintains the relational structure upon individual observations and during inference steps.

We describe theoretical bounds and a practical algorithm for teaching a model by demonstration in a sequential decision making environment. Unlike previous efforts that have optimized learners that watch a teacher demonstrate a static policy, we focus on the teacher as a decision maker who can dynamically choose different policies to teach different parts of the environment. We develop several teaching frameworks based on previously defined supervised protocols, such as Teaching Dimension, extending them to handle noise and sequences of inputs encountered in an MDP.We provide theoretical bounds on the learnability of several important model classes in this setting and suggest a practical algorithm for dynamic teaching.

EDML is a recently proposed algorithm for learning MAP parameters in Bayesian networks. In this paper, we present a number of new advances and insights on the EDML algorithm. First, we provide the multivalued extension of EDML, originally proposed for Bayesian networks over binary variables. Next, we identify a simplified characterization of EDML that further implies a simple fixed-point algorithm for the convex optimization problem that underlies it. This characterization further reveals a connection between EDML and EM: a fixed point of EDML is a fixed point of EM, and vice versa. We thus identify also a new characterization of EM fixed points, but in the semantics of EDML. Finally, we propose a hybrid EDML/EM algorithm that takes advantage of the improved empirical convergence behavior of EDML, while maintaining the monotonic improvement property of EM.

Active Learning (AL) is increasingly important in a broad range of applications. Two main AL principles to obtain accurate classification with few labeled data are refinement of the current decision boundary and exploration of poorly sampled regions. In this paper we derive a novel AL scheme that balances these two principles in a natural way. In contrast to many AL strategies, which are based on an estimated class conditional probability ^p(y|x), a key component of our approach is to view this quantity as a random variable, hence explicitly considering the uncertainty in its estimated value. Our main contribution is a novel mathematical framework for uncertainty-based AL, and a corresponding AL scheme, where the uncertainty in ^p(y|x) is modeled by a second-order distribution. On the practical side, we show how to approximate such second-order distributions for kernel density classification. Finally, we find that over a large number of UCI, USPS and Caltech4 datasets, our AL scheme achieves significantly better learning curves than popular AL methods such as uncertainty sampling and error reduction sampling, when all use the same kernel density classifier.

Recently two search algorithms, A* and breadth-first branch and bound (BFBnB), were developed based on a simple admissible heuristic for learning Bayesian network structures that optimize a scoring function. The heuristic represents a relaxation of the learning problem such that each variable chooses optimal parents independently. As a result, the heuristic may contain many directed cycles and result in a loose bound. This paper introduces an improved admissible heuristic that tries to avoid directed cycles within small groups of variables. A sparse representation is also introduced to store only the unique optimal parent choices. Empirical results show that the new techniques significantly improved the efficiency and scalability of A* and BFBnB on most of datasets tested in this paper.

Latent variable models are used to estimate variables of interest quantities which are observable only up to some measurement error. In many studies, such variables are known but not precisely quantifiable (such as "job satisfaction" in social sciences and marketing, "analytical ability" in educational testing, or "inflation" in economics). This leads to the development of measurement instruments to record noisy indirect evidence for such unobserved variables such as surveys, tests and price indexes. In such problems, there are postulated latent variables and a given measurement model. At the same time, other unantecipated latent variables can add further unmeasured confounding to the observed variables. The problem is how to deal with unantecipated latents variables. In this paper, we provide a method loosely inspired by canonical correlation that makes use of background information concerning the "known" latent variables. Given a partially specified structure, it provides a structure learning approach to detect "unknown unknowns," the confounding effect of potentially infinitely many other latent variables. This is done without explicitly modeling such extra latent factors. Because of the special structure of the problem, we are able to exploit a new variation of composite likelihood fitting to efficiently learn this structure. Validation is provided with experiments in synthetic data and the analysis of a large survey done with a sample of over 100,000 staff members of the National Health Service of the United Kingdom.

In spectral clustering, one defines a similarity matrix for a collection of data points, transforms the matrix to get the Laplacian matrix, finds the eigenvectors of the Laplacian matrix, and obtains a partition of the data using the leading eigenvectors. The last step is sometimes referred to as rounding, where one needs to decide how many leading eigenvectors to use, to determine the number of clusters, and to partition the data points. In this paper, we propose a novel method for rounding. The method differs from previous methods in three ways. First, we relax the assumption that the number of clusters equals the number of eigenvectors used. Second, when deciding the number of leading eigenvectors to use, we not only rely on information contained in the leading eigenvectors themselves, but also use subsequent eigenvectors. Third, our method is model-based and solves all the three subproblems of rounding using a class of graphical models called latent tree models. We evaluate our method on both synthetic and real-world data. The results show that our method works correctly in the ideal case where between-clusters similarity is 0, and degrades gracefully as one moves away from the ideal case.

The recent proliferation of richly structured probabilistic models raises the question of how to automatically determine an appropriate model for a dataset. We investigate this question for a space of matrix decomposition models which can express a variety of widely used models from unsupervised learning. To enable model selection, we organize these models into a context-free grammar which generates a wide variety of structures through the compositional application of a few simple rules. We use our grammar to generically and efficiently infer latent components and estimate predictive likelihood for nearly 2500 structures using a small toolbox of reusable algorithms. Using a greedy search over our grammar, we automatically choose the decomposition structure from raw data by evaluating only a small fraction of all models. The proposed method typically finds the correct structure for synthetic data and backs off gracefully to simpler models under heavy noise. It learns sensible structures for datasets as diverse as image patches, motion capture, 20 Questions, and U.S. Senate votes, all using exactly the same code.

Learning a Bayesian network structure from data is an NP-hard problem and thus exact algorithms are feasible only for small data sets. Therefore, network structures for larger networks are usually learned with various heuristics. Another approach to scaling up the structure learning is local learning. In local learning, the modeler has one or more target variables that are of special interest; he wants to learn the structure near the target variables and is not interested in the rest of the variables. In this paper, we present a score-based local learning algorithm called SLL. We conjecture that our algorithm is theoretically sound in the sense that it is optimal in the limit of large sample size. Empirical results suggest that SLL is competitive when compared to the constraint-based HITON algorithm. We also study the prospects of constructing the network structure for the whole node set based on local results by presenting two algorithms and comparing them to several heuristics.

What features contribute to player enjoyment and player retentionhas been a popular research topic in video games research;however, the question of what causes players to quit agame has received little attention by comparison. In this paper,we examine 5 quantitative features of the game Scrabblesquein order to determine what behaviors are predictors ofa player prematurely ending a game session. We identified afeature transformation that notably improves prediction accuracy.We used a naive Bayes model to determine that there areseveral transformed feature sequences that are accurate predictorsof players terminating game sessions before the endof the game.We also identify several trends that exist in thesesequences to give a more general idea as to what behaviorsare characteristic early indicators of players quitting.