We consider unsupervised estimation of mixtures of discrete graphical models, where the class variable is hidden and each mixture component can have a potentially different Markov graph structure and parameters over the observed variables. We propose a novel method for estimating the mixture components with provable guarantees. Our output is a tree-mixture model which serves as a good approximation to the underlying graphical model mixture. The sample and computational requirements for our method scale as $\poly(p, r)$, for an $r$-component mixture of $p$-variate graphical models, for a wide class of models which includes tree mixtures and mixtures over bounded degree graphs.

The variational Bayesian (VB) approach is one of the best tractable approximations to the Bayesian estimation, and it was demonstrated to perform well in many applications. However, its good performance was not fully understood theoretically. For example, VB sometimes produces a sparse solution, which is regarded as a practical advantage of VB, but such sparsity is hardly observed in the rigorous Bayesian estimation. In this paper, we focus on probabilistic PCA and give more theoretical insight into the empirical success of VB. More specifically, for the situation where the noise variance is unknown, we derive a sufficient condition for perfect recovery of the true PCA dimensionality in the large-scale limit when the size of an observed matrix goes to infinity. In our analysis, we obtain bounds for a noise variance estimator and simple closed-form solutions for other parameters, which themselves are actually very useful for better implementation of VB-PCA.

The empirical success of the belief propagation approximate inference algorithm has inspired numerous theoretical and algorithmic advances. Yet, for continuous non-Gaussian domains performing belief propagation remains a challenging task: recent innovations such as nonparametric or kernel belief propagation, while useful, come with a substantial computational cost and offer little theoretical guarantees, even for tree structured models. In this work we present Nonparanormal BP for performing efficient inference on distributions parameterized by a Gaussian copulas network and any univariate marginals. For tree structured networks, our approach is guaranteed to be exact for this powerful class of non-Gaussian models. Importantly, the method is as efficient as standard Gaussian BP, and its convergence properties do not depend on the complexity of the univariate marginals, even when a nonparametric representation is used.

The partition function plays a key role in probabilistic modeling including conditional random fields, graphical models, and maximum likelihood estimation. To optimize partition functions, this article introduces a quadratic variational upper bound. This inequality facilitates majorization methods: optimization of complicated functions through the iterative solution of simpler sub-problems. Such bounds remain efficient to compute even when the partition function involves a graphical model (with small tree-width) or in latent likelihood settings. For large-scale problems, low-rank versions of the bound are provided and outperform LBFGS as well as first-order methods. Several learning applications are shown and reduce to fast and convergent update rules. Experimental results show advantages over state-of-the-art optimization methods.

Learning temporal dependencies between variables over continuous time is an important and challenging task. Continuous-time Bayesian networks effectively model such processes but are limited by the number of conditional intensity matrices, which grows exponentially in the number of parents per variable. We develop a partition-based representation using regression trees and forests whose parameter spaces grow linearly in the number of node splits. Using a multiplicative assumption we show how to update the forest likelihood in closed form, producing efficient model updates. Our results show multiplicative forests can be learned from few temporal trajectories with large gains in performance and scalability.

We present a truncation-free online variational inference algorithm for Bayesian nonparametric models. Unlike traditional (online) variational inference algorithms that require truncations for the model or the variational distribution, our method adapts model complexity on the fly. Our experiments for Dirichlet process mixture models and hierarchical Dirichlet process topic models on two large-scale data sets show better performance than previous online variational inference algorithms.

We present a nonparametric Bayesian approach to inverse reinforcement learning (IRL) for multiple reward functions. Most previous IRL algorithms assume that the behaviour data is obtained from an agent who is optimizing a single reward function, but this assumption is hard to be met in practice. Our approach is based on integrating the Dirichlet process mixture model into Bayesian IRL. We provide an efficient Metropolis-Hastings sampling algorithm utilizing the gradient of the posterior to estimate the underlying reward functions, and demonstrate that our approach outperforms the previous ones via experiments on a number of problem domains.

In hierarchical classification, the prediction paths may be required to always end at leaf nodes. This is called mandatory leaf node prediction (MLNP) and is particularly useful when the leaf nodes have much stronger semantic meaning than the internal nodes. However, while there have been a lot of MLNP methods in hierarchical multiclass classification, performing MLNP in hierarchical multilabel classification is much more difficult. In this paper, we propose a novel MLNP algorithm that (i) considers the global hierarchy structure; and (ii) can be used on hierarchies of both trees and DAGs. We show that one can efficiently maximize the joint posterior probability of all the node labels by a simple greedy algorithm. Moreover, this can be further extended to the minimization of the expected symmetric loss. Experiments are performed on a number of real-world data sets with tree- and DAG-structured label hierarchies. The proposed method consistently outperforms other hierarchical and flat multilabel classification methods.

A special case that has received significant attention is the Plackett-Luce model, for which fast inference methods for maximum likelihood estimators are available. This paper develops conditions on general random utility models that enable fast inference within a Bayesian framework through MC-EM, providing concave loglikelihood functionsand bounded sets of global maxima solutions. Results on both real-world and simulated data provide support for the scalability of the approach andcapability for model selection among general random utility models including Plackett-Luce.

We consider sequential prediction algorithms that are given the predictions from a set of models as inputs. If the nature of the data is changing over time in that different models predict well on different segments of the data, then adaptivity is typically achieved by mixing into the weights in each round a bit of the initial prior (kind of like a weak restart). However, what if the favored models in each segment are from a small subset, i.e. the data is likely to be predicted well by models that predicted well before? Curiously, fitting such ''sparse composite models'' is achieved by mixing in a bit of all the past posteriors. This self-referential updating method is rather peculiar, but it is efficient and gives superior performance on many natural data sets. Also it is important because it introduces a long-term memory: any model that has done well in the past can be recovered quickly. While Bayesian interpretations can be found for mixing in a bit of the initial prior, no Bayesian interpretation is known for mixing in past posteriors. We build atop the ''specialist'' framework from the online learning literature to give the Mixing Past Posteriors update a proper Bayesian foundation. We apply our method to a well-studied multitask learning problem and obtain a new intriguing efficient update that achieves a significantly better bound.