A fundamental problem in the analysis of structured relational data like graphs, networks, databases, and matrices is to extract a summary of the common structure underlying relations between individual entities. Relational data are typically encoded in the form of arrays; invariance to the ordering of rows and columns corresponds to exchangeable arrays. Results in probability theory due to Aldous, Hoover and Kallenberg show that exchangeable arrays can be represented in terms of a random measurable function which constitutes the natural model parameter in a Bayesian model. We obtain a flexible yet simple Bayesian nonparametric model by placing a Gaussian process prior on the parameter function. Efficient inference utilises elliptical slice sampling combined with a random sparse approximation to the Gaussian process. We demonstrate applications of the model to network data and clarify its relation to models in the literature, several of which emerge as special cases.

A special case that has received significant attention is the Plackett-Luce model, for which fast inference methods for maximum likelihood estimators are available. This paper develops conditions on general random utility models that enable fast inference within a Bayesian framework through MC-EM, providing concave loglikelihood functions and bounded sets of global maxima solutions. Results on both real-world and simulated data provide support for the scalability of the approach and capability for model selection among general random utility models including Plackett-Luce.

Modelling natural images with sparse coding (SC) has faced two main challenges: flexibly representing varying pixel intensities and realistically representing lowlevel image components. This paper proposes a novel multiple-cause generative model of low-level image statistics that generalizes the standard SC model in two crucial points: (1) it uses a spike-and-slab prior distribution for a more realistic representation of component absence/intensity, and (2) the model uses the highly nonlinear combination rule of maximal causes analysis (MCA) instead of a linear combination. The major challenge is parameter optimization because a model with either (1) or (2) results in strongly multimodal posteriors. We show for the first time that a model combining both improvements can be trained efficiently while retaining the rich structure of the posteriors. We design an exact piecewise Gibbs sampling method and combine this with a variational method based on preselection of latent dimensions. This combined training scheme tackles both analytical and computational intractability and enables application of the model to a large number of observed and hidden dimensions.

A common challenge for Bayesian models of perception is the fact that the two fundamental Bayesian components, the prior distribution and the likelihood function, are formally unconstrained. Here we argue that a neural system that emulates Bayesian inference is naturally constrained by the way it represents sensory information in populations of neurons. More specifically, we show that an efficient coding principle creates a direct link between prior and likelihood based on the underlying stimulus distribution. The resulting Bayesian estimates can show biases away from the peaks of the prior distribution, a behavior seemingly at odds with the traditional view of Bayesian estimation, yet one that has been reported in human perception. We demonstrate that our framework correctly accounts for the repulsive biases previously reported for the perception of visual orientation, and show that the predicted tuning characteristics of the model neurons match the reported orientation tuning properties of neurons in primary visual cortex. Our results suggest that efficient coding is a promising hypothesis in constraining Bayesian models of perceptual inference.

A fundamental problem in the analysis of structured relational data like graphs, networks, databases, and matrices is to extract a summary of the common structure underlying relations between individual entities. Relational data are typically encoded in the form of arrays; invariance to the ordering of rows and columns corresponds to exchangeable arrays. Results in probability theory due to Aldous, Hoover and Kallenberg show that exchangeable arrays can be represented in terms of a random measurable function which constitutes the natural model parameter in a Bayesian model. We obtain a flexible yet simple Bayesian nonparametric model by placing a Gaussian process prior on the parameter function. Efficient inference utilises elliptical slice sampling combined with a random sparse approximation to the Gaussian process. We demonstrate applications of the model to network data and clarify its relation to models in the literature, several of which emerge as special cases.

A special case that has received significant attention is the Plackett-Luce model, for which fast inference methods for maximum likelihood estimators are available. This paper develops conditions on general random utility models that enable fast inference within a Bayesian framework through MC-EM, providing concave loglikelihood functions and bounded sets of global maxima solutions. Results on both real-world and simulated data provide support for the scalability of the approach and capability for model selection among general random utility models including Plackett-Luce.

Numerical integration is an key component of many problems in scientific computing, statistical modelling, and machine learning. Bayesian Quadrature is a model-based method for numerical integration which, relative to standard Monte Carlo methods, offers increased sample efficiency and a more robust estimate of the uncertainty in the estimated integral. We propose a novel Bayesian Quadrature approach for numerical integration when the integrand is non-negative, such as the case of computing the marginal likelihood, predictive distribution, or normalising constant of a probabilistic model. Our approach approximately marginalises the quadrature model's hyperparameters in closed form, and introduces an active learning scheme to optimally select function evaluations, as opposed to using Monte Carlo samples. We demonstrate our method on both a number of synthetic benchmarks and a real scientific problem from astronomy.

Reinforcement learning (RL) methods based on direct policy search (DPS) have been actively discussed to achieve an efficient approach to complicated Markov decision processes (MDPs). Although they have brought much progress in practical applications of RL, there still remains an unsolved problem in DPS related to model selection for the policy. In this paper, we propose a novel DPS method, {\it weighted likelihood policy search (WLPS)}, where a policy is efficiently learned through the weighted likelihood estimation. WLPS naturally connects DPS to the statistical inference problem and thus various sophisticated techniques in statistics can be applied to DPS problems directly. Hence, by following the idea of the {\it information criterion}, we develop a new measurement for model comparison in DPS based on the weighted log-likelihood.

We present a dynamic nonlinear generative model for visual motion based on a latent representation of binary-gated Gaussian variables. Trained on sequences of images, the model learns to represent different movement directions in different variables. We use an online approximate-inference scheme that can be mapped to the dynamics of networks of neurons. Probed with drifting grating stimuli and moving bars of light, neurons in the model show patterns of responses analogous to those of direction-selective simple cells in primary visual cortex. Most model neurons also show speed tuning and respond equally well to a range of motion directions and speeds aligned to the constraint line of their respective preferred speed. We show how these computations are enabled by a specific pattern of recurrent connections learned by the model.

Bayesian model-based reinforcement learning is a formally elegant approach to learning optimal behaviour under model uncertainty, trading off exploration and exploitation in an ideal way. Unfortunately, finding the resulting Bayes-optimal policies is notoriously taxing, since the search space becomes enormous. In this paper we introduce a tractable, sample-based method for approximate Bayes-optimal planning which exploits Monte-Carlo tree search. Our approach outperformed prior Bayesian model-based RL algorithms by a significant margin on several well-known benchmark problems -- because it avoids expensive applications of Bayes rule within the search tree by lazily sampling models from the current beliefs. We illustrate the advantages of our approach by showing it working in an infinite state space domain which is qualitatively out of reach of almost all previous work in Bayesian exploration.