It is generally challenging to obtain the exact disease prevalence, as the true cases of a disease in the population level are not easy to identify. Available and relevant data sources such as administrative or clinical health data are used in public health surveillance as a proxy to estimate the disease prevalence. Traditionally, these data sources span through healthcare utilization information such as emergency department visits, pharmacy drug sales, or laboratory test orders. In addition to incompleteness, these data sources are not usually available in a timely manner. Timeliness is an important factor for prevalence estimation for some conditions such as infectious diseases, especially at the time of an epidemic. For instance, in an influenza pandemic such estimates must be obtained within a day or two. In recent years several non-clinical and non-traditional data sources have been introduced to public health with the potentials to provide signals on a disease rate or to provide a feedback on the trends of a disease. Ideally, combining these new sources with the ones routinely used should help to identify disease cases more efficiently. However, building a construct capable of incorporating data from these various sources in a coherent manner is not trivial. In this research, we consider the case of H1N1 pandemic as the infectious disease of interest and we use media reports of deaths from H1N1 on the web as a non traditional data source. We propose to use dynamic Bayesian networks from the class of probabilistic graphical models in order to combine this new data source with traditional ones through exploration of the possible probabilistic relationships between these data streams. This is an initial step towards building a framework that can potentially support aggregation of heterogeneous data for a real-time estimation of a disease prevalence. Our preliminary results show that the proposed model generalizes well.

Many graph clustering quality functions suffer from a resolution limit, the inability to find small clusters in large graphs. So called resolution-limit-free quality functions do not have this limit. This property was previously introduced for hard clustering, that is, graph partitioning. We investigate the resolution-limit-free property in the context of Non-negative Matrix Factorization (NMF) for hard and soft graph clustering. To use NMF in the hard clustering setting, a common approach is to assign each node to its highest membership cluster. We show that in this case symmetric NMF is not resolution-limit-free, but that it becomes so when hardness constraints are used as part of the optimization. The resulting function is strongly linked to the Constant Potts Model. In soft clustering, nodes can belong to more than one cluster, with varying degrees of membership. In this setting resolution-limit-free turns out to be too strong a property. Therefore we introduce locality, which roughly states that changing one part of the graph does not affect the clustering of other parts of the graph. We argue that this is a desirable property, provide conditions under which NMF quality functions are local, and propose a novel class of local probabilistic NMF quality functions for soft graph clustering.

Crowdsourcing has been proven to be an effective and efficient tool to annotate large datasets. User annotations are often noisy, so methods to combine the annotations to produce reliable estimates of the ground truth are necessary. We claim that considering the existence of clusters of users in this combination step can improve the performance. This is especially important in early stages of crowdsourcing implementations, where the number of annotations is low. At this stage there is not enough information to accurately estimate the bias introduced by each annotator separately, so we have to resort to models that consider the statistical links among them. In addition, finding these clusters is interesting in itself as knowing the behavior of the pool of annotators allows implementing efficient active learning strategies. Based on this, we propose in this paper two new fully unsupervised models based on a Chinese Restaurant Process (CRP) prior and a hierarchical structure that allows inferring these groups jointly with the ground truth and the properties of the users. Efficient inference algorithms based on Gibbs sampling with auxiliary variables are proposed. Finally, we perform experiments, both on synthetic and real databases, to show the advantages of our models over state-of-the-art algorithms.

We introduce Church, a universal language for describing stochastic generative processes. Church is based on the Lisp model of lambda calculus, containing a pure Lisp as its deterministic subset. The semantics of Church is defined in terms of evaluation histories and conditional distributions on such histories. Church also includes a novel language construct, the stochastic memoizer, which enables simple description of many complex non-parametric models. We illustrate language features through several examples, including: a generalized Bayes net in which parameters cluster over trials, infinite PCFGs, planning by inference, and various non-parametric clustering models. Finally, we show how to implement query on any Church program, exactly and approximately, using Monte Carlo techniques.

Conformant probabilistic planning (CPP) differs from conformant planning (CP) by two key elements: the initial belief state is probabilistic,and the conformant plan must achieve the goal with probability $\geq\theta$, for some $0<\theta\leq 1$. In earlier work we observed that one can reduce CPP to CP by finding a set of initial states whose probability $\geq\theta$, for whicha conformant plan exists. In previous solvers we used the underlying planner to select this set of states and to plan for them simultaneously. Here we suggest an alternative approach: start with relevance analysis to determine a promising set of initial states on which to focus. Then, call an off-the-shelf conformant planner to solve the resulting problem. This approach has a number of advantages. First, instead of depending on the heuristic function to select the set of initial states,we can introduce specific, efficient relevance reasoning techniques. Second, we can benefit from optimizations used by conformant planners that are unsound when applied to the original CPP. Finally, we are free to use any existing (or new) CP solver. Consequently, the new planner dominates previous solvers on almost all domains and scales to instances that were not solved before.

Many real-world applications involve multilabel classification, in which the labels can have strong inter-dependencies and some of them may even be missing.Existing multilabel algorithms are unable to handle both issues simultaneously.In this paper, we propose a probabilistic model that can automatically learn and exploit multilabel correlations.By integrating out the missing information, it also provides a disciplinedapproach to the handling of missing labels. The inference procedure is simple, and the optimization subproblems are convex. Experiments on a number of real-world data sets with both complete and missing labelsdemonstrate that the proposed algorithm can consistently outperform state-of-the-art multilabel classification algorithms.

A recent breadth-first branch and bound algorithm (BFBnB)for learning Bayesian network structures (Maloneet al. 2011) uses two bounds to prune the searchspace for better efficiency; one is a lower bound calculatedfrom pattern database heuristics, and the otheris an upper bound obtained by a hill climbing search.Whenever the lower bound of a search path exceeds theupper bound, the path is guaranteed to lead to suboptimalsolutions and is discarded immediately. This paperintroduces methods for tightening the bounds. Thelower bound is tightened by using more informed variablegroupings when creating the pattern databases, andthe upper bound is tightened using an anytime learningalgorithm. Empirical results show that these boundsimprove the efficiency of Bayesian network learning bytwo to three orders of magnitude.

Infinite SVM (iSVM) is a Dirichlet process (DP) mixture of large-margin classifiers. Though flexible in learning nonlinear classifiers and discovering latent clustering structures, iSVM has a difficult inference task and existing methods could hinder its applicability to large-scale problems. This paper presents a small-variance asymptotic analysis to derive a simple and efficient algorithm, which monotonically optimizes a max-margin DP-means (M2DPM) problem, an extension of DP-means for both predictive learning and descriptive clustering. Our analysis is built on Gibbs infinite SVMs, an alternative DP mixture of large-margin machines, which admits a partially collapsed Gibbs sampler without truncation by exploring data augmentation techniques. Experimental results show that M2DPM runs much faster than similar algorithms without sacrificing prediction accuracies.

Multi-Instance Multi-Label (MIML) is a learning framework where an example is associated with multiple labels and represented by a set of feature vectors (multiple instances). In the formalization of MIML learning, instances come from a single source (single view). To leverage multiple information sources (multi-view), we develop a multi-view MIML framework based on hierarchical Bayesian Network, and derive an effective learning algorithm based on variational inference. The model can naturally deal with examples in which some views could be absent (partial examples). On multi-view datasets, it is shown that our method is better than other multi-view and single-view approaches particularly in the presence of partial examples. On single-view benchmarks, extensive evaluation shows that our method is highly competitive or better than other MIML approaches on labeling examples and instances. Moreover, our method can effectively handle datasets with a large number of labels.

Relation inference between concepts in knowledge base has been extensively studied in recent years. Previous methods mostly apply the relations in the knowledge base, without fully utilizing the contents, i.e., the attributes of concepts in knowledge base. In this paper, we propose a content-structural relation inference method (CSRI) which integrates the content and structural information between concepts for relation inference. Experiments on data sets show that CSRI obtains 15% improvement compared with the state-of-the-art methods.