One of the most fundamental problems in causal inference is the estimation of a causal effect when variables are confounded. This is difficult in an observational study because one has no direct evidence that all confounders have been adjusted for. We introduce a novel approach for estimating causal effects that exploits observational conditional independencies to suggest ``weak'' paths in a unknown causal graph. The widely used faithfulness condition of Spirtes et al. is relaxed to allow for varying degrees of ``path cancellations'' that will imply conditional independencies but do not rule out the existence of confounding causal paths. The outcome is a posterior distribution over bounds on the average causal effect via a linear programming approach and Bayesian inference. We claim this approach should be used in regular practice to complement other default tools in observational studies.

Coverage functions are an important class of discrete functions that capture the law of diminishing returns arising naturally from applications in social network analysis, machine learning, and algorithmic game theory. In this paper, we propose anew problem of learning time-varying coverage functions, and develop a novel parametrization of these functions using random features. Based on the connection betweentime-varying coverage functions and counting processes, we also propose an efficient parameter learning algorithm based on likelihood maximization, andprovide a sample complexity analysis. We applied our algorithm to the influence function estimation problem in information diffusion in social networks, and show that with few assumptions about the diffusion processes, our algorithm is able to estimate influence significantly more accurately than existing approaches on both synthetic and real world data.

Even though heterogeneous databases can be found in a broad variety of applications, there exists a lack of tools for estimating missing data in such databases. In this paper, we provide an efficient and robust table completion tool, based on a Bayesian nonparametric latent feature model. In particular, we propose a general observation model for the Indian buffet process (IBP) adapted to mixed continuous (real-valued and positive real-valued) and discrete (categorical, ordinal and count) observations. Then, we propose an inference algorithm that scales linearly with the number of observations. Finally, our experiments over five real databases show that the proposed approach provides more robust and accurate estimates than the standard IBP and the Bayesian probabilistic matrix factorization with Gaussian observations.

The prediction of time-changing variances is an important task in the modeling of financial data. Standard econometric models are often limited as they assume rigid functional relationships for the evolution of the variance. Moreover, functional parameters are usually learned by maximum likelihood, which can lead to overfitting. To address these problems we introduce GP-Vol, a novel non-parametric model for time-changing variances based on Gaussian Processes. This new model can capture highly flexible functional relationships for the variances. Furthermore, we introduce a new online algorithm for fast inference in GP-Vol. This method is much faster than current offline inference procedures and it avoids overfitting problems by following a fully Bayesian approach. Experiments with financial data show that GP-Vol performs significantly better than current standard alternatives.

This work presents novel algorithms for learning Bayesian networks of bounded treewidth. Both exact and approximate methods are developed. The exact method combines mixed integer linear programming formulations for structure learning and treewidth computation. The approximate method consists in sampling k-trees (maximal graphs of treewidth k), and subsequently selecting, exactly or approximately, the best structure whose moral graph is a subgraph of that k-tree. The approaches are empirically compared to each other and to state-of-the-art methods on a collection of public data sets with up to 100 variables.

Attention has long been proposed by psychologists to be important for efficiently dealing with the massive amounts of sensory stimulus in the neocortex. Inspired by the attention models in visual neuroscience and the need for object-centered data for generative models, we propose a deep-learning based generative framework using attention. The attentional mechanism propagates signals from the region of interest in a scene to an aligned canonical representation for generative modeling. By ignoring scene background clutter, the generative model can concentrate its resources on the object of interest. A convolutional neural net is employed to provide good initializations during posterior inference which uses Hamiltonian Monte Carlo. Upon learning images of faces, our model can robustly attend to the face region of novel test subjects. More importantly, our model can learn generative models of new faces from a novel dataset of large images where the face locations are not known.

Dropout training, originally designed for deep neural networks, has been successful on high-dimensional single-layer natural language tasks. This paper proposes a theoretical explanation for this phenomenon: we show that, under a generative Poisson topic model with long documents, dropout training improves the exponent in the generalization bound for empirical risk minimization. Dropout achieves this gain much like a marathon runner who practices at altitude: once a classifier learns to perform reasonably well on training examples that have been artificially corrupted by dropout, it will do very well on the uncorrupted test set. We also show that, under similar conditions, dropout preserves the Bayes decision boundary and should therefore induce minimal bias in high dimensions.

Neural population activity in cortical circuits is not solely driven by external inputs, but is also modulated by endogenous states which vary on multiple time-scales. To understand information processing in cortical circuits, we need to understand the statistical structure of internal states and their interaction with sensory inputs. Here, we present a statistical model for extracting hierarchically organised neural population states from multi-channel recordings of neural spiking activity. Population states are modelled using a hidden Markov decision tree with state-dependent tuning parameters and a generalised linear observation model. We present a variational Bayesian inference algorithm for estimating the posterior distribution over parameters from neural population recordings. On simulated data, we show that we can identify the underlying sequence of population states and reconstruct the ground truth parameters. Using population recordings from visual cortex, we find that a model with two levels of population states outperforms both a one-state and a two-state generalised linear model. Finally, we find that modelling of state-dependence also improves the accuracy with which sensory stimuli can be decoded from the population response.

Performance metrics for binary classification are designed to capture tradeoffs between four fundamental population quantities: true positives, false positives, true negatives and false negatives. Despite significant interest from theoretical and applied communities, little is known about either optimal classifiers or consistent algorithms for optimizing binary classification performance metrics beyond a few special cases. We consider a fairly large family of performance metrics given by ratios of linear combinations of the four fundamental population quantities. This family includes many well known binary classification metrics such as classification accuracy, AM measure, F-measure and the Jaccard similarity coefficient as special cases. Our analysis identifies the optimal classifiers as the sign of the thresholded conditional probability of the positive class, with a performance metric-dependent threshold. The optimal threshold can be constructed using simple plug-in estimators when the performance metric is a linear combination of the population quantities, but alternative techniques are required for the general case. We propose two algorithms for estimating the optimal classifiers, and prove their statistical consistency. Both algorithms are straightforward modifications of standard approaches to address the key challenge of optimal threshold selection, thus are simple to implement in practice. The first algorithm combines a plug-in estimate of the conditional probability of the positive class with optimal threshold selection. The second algorithm leverages recent work on calibrated asymmetric surrogate losses to construct candidate classifiers. We present empirical comparisons between these algorithms on benchmark datasets.

State-space models have been successfully used for more than fifty years in different areas of science and engineering. We present a procedure for efficient variational Bayesian learning of nonlinear state-space models based on sparse Gaussian processes. The result of learning is a tractable posterior over nonlinear dynamical systems. In comparison to conventional parametric models, we offer the possibility to straightforwardly trade off model capacity and computational cost whilst avoiding overfitting. Our main algorithm uses a hybrid inference approach combining variational Bayes and sequential Monte Carlo. We also present stochastic variational inference and online learning approaches for fast learning with long time series.