Effective tutoring requires personalization of the interaction to each student.Continuous and efficient assessment of the student's skills are a prerequisite for such personalization.We developed a Bayesian active-learning algorithm that continuously and efficiently assesses a child's word-reading skills and implemented it in a social robot.We then developed an integrated experimental paradigm in which a child plays a novel story-creation tablet game with the robot.The robot is portrayed as a younger peer who wishes to learn to read, framing the assessment of the child's word-reading skills as well as empowering the child.We show that our algorithm results in an accurate representation of the child's word-reading skills for a large age range, 4-8 year old children, and large initial reading skill range.We also show that employing child-specific assessment-based tutoring results in an age- and initial reading skill-independent learning, compared to random tutoring.Finally, our integrated system enables us to show that implementing the same learning algorithm on the robot's reading skills results in knowledge that is comparable to what the child thinks the robot has learned.The child's perception of the robot's knowledge is age-dependent and may facilitate an indirect assessment of the development of theory-of-mind.

Transcribed speech is a critical resource for building statistical speech recognition systems. Recent work has looked towards soliciting transcriptions for large speech corpora from native speakers of the language using crowdsourcing techniques. However, native speakers of the target language may not be readily available for crowdsourcing. We examine the following question: can humans unfamiliar with the target language help transcribe? We follow an information-theoretic approach to this problem: (1) We learn the characteristics of a noisy channel that models the transcribers' systematic perception biases. (2) We use an error-correcting code, specifically a repetition code, to encode the inputs to this channel, in conjunction with a maximum-likelihood decoding rule. To demonstrate the feasibility of this approach, we transcribe isolated Hindi words with the help of Mechanical Turk workers unfamiliar with Hindi. We successfully recover Hindi words with an accuracy of over 85% (and 94% in a 4-best list) using a 15-fold repetition code. We also estimate the conditional entropy of the input to this channel (Hindi words) given the channel output (transcripts from crowdsourced workers) to be less than 2 bits; this serves as a theoretical estimate of the average number of bits of auxiliary information required for errorless recovery.

The task of predicting retweet behavior is an important and essential step for various social network applications, such as business intelligence, popular event prediction, and so on. Due to the increasing requirements, in recent years, the task has attracted extensive attentions. In this work, we propose a novel method using non-parametric statistical models to combine structural, textual, and temporal information together to predict retweet behavior. To evaluate the proposed method, we collect a large number of microblogs and their corresponding social networks from a real microblog service. Experimental results on the constructed dataset demonstrate that the proposed method can achieve better performance than state-of-the-art methods. The relative improvement of the the proposed over the method using only textual information is more than 38.5% in terms of F1-Score.

Pair-wise ranking methods have been widely used in recommender systems to deal with implicit feedback. They attempt to discriminate between a handful of observed items and the large set of unobserved items. In these approaches, however, user preferences and item characteristics cannot be estimated reliably due to overfitting given highly sparse data. To alleviate this problem, in this paper, we propose a novel hierarchical Bayesian framework which incorporates ``bag-of-words'' type meta-data on items into pair-wise ranking models for one-class collaborative filtering. The main idea of our method lies in extending the pair-wise ranking with a probabilistic topic modeling. Instead of regularizing item factors through a zero-mean Gaussian prior, our method introduces item-specific topic proportions as priors for item factors. As a by-product, interpretable latent factors for users and items may help explain recommendations in some applications. We conduct an experimental study on a real and publicly available dataset, and the results show that our algorithm is effective in providing accurate recommendation and interpreting user factors and item factors.

Stochastic blockmodel (SBM) enables us to decompose and analyze an exploratory network without a priori knowledge about its intrinsic structure. However, the task of effectively and efficiently learning a SBM from a large-scale network is still challenging due to the high computational cost of its model selection and parameter estimation. To address this issue, we present a novel SBM learning algorithm referred to as BLOS (BLOckwise Sbm learning). Distinct from the literature, the model selection and parameter estimation of SBM are concurrently, rather than alternately, executed in BLOS by embedding the minimum message length criterion into a block-wise EM algorithm, which greatly reduces the time complexity of SBM learning without losing learning accuracy and modeling flexibility. Its effectiveness and efficiency have been tested through rigorous comparisons with the state-of-the-art methods on both synthetic and real-world networks.

Effective forecasting of future prevalent topics plays animportant role in social network business development.It involves two challenging aspects: predicting whethera topic will become prevalent, and when. This cannotbe directly handled by the existing algorithms in topicmodeling, item recommendation and action forecasting.The classic forecasting framework based on time seriesmodels may be able to predict a hot topic when a seriesof periodical changes to user-addressed frequency in asystematic way. However, the frequency of topics discussedby users often changes irregularly in social networks.In this paper, a generic probabilistic frameworkis proposed for hot topic prediction, and machine learningmethods are explored to predict hot topic patterns.Two effective models, PreWHether and PreWHen, areintroduced to predict whether and when a topic will becomeprevalent. In the PreWHether model, we simulatethe constructed features of previously observed frequencychanges for better prediction. In the PreWHen model,distributions of time intervals associated with the emergenceto prevalence of a topic are modeled. Extensiveexperiments on real datasets demonstrate that ourmethod outperforms the baselines and generates moreeffective predictions.

Sentiment analysis predicts a one-dimensional quantity describing the positive or negative emotion of an author. Mood analysis extends the one-dimensional sentiment response to a multi-dimensional quantity, describing a diverse set of human emotions. In this paper, we extend sentiment and mood analysis temporally and model emotions as a function of time based on temporal streams of blog posts authored by a specific author. The model is useful for constructing predictive models and discovering scientific models of human emotions.

Text-based geolocation classifiers often operate with a grid-based view of the world. Predicting document location of origin based on text content on a geodesic grid is computationally attractive since many standard methods for supervised document classification carry over unchanged to geolocation in the form of predicting a most probable grid cell for a document. However, the grid-based approach suffers from sparse data problems if one wants to improve classification accuracy by moving to smaller cell sizes. In this paper we investigate an enhancement of common methods for determining the geographic point of origin of a text document by kernel density estimation. For geolocation of tweets we obtain a improvements upon non-kernel methods on datasets of U.S. and global Twitter content.

Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) is a powerful and elegant framework for performing inference in simulation-based models. However, due to the difficulty in scaling likelihood estimates, ABC remains useful for relatively low-dimensional problems. We introduce Hamiltonian ABC (HABC), a set of likelihood-free algorithms that apply recent advances in scaling Bayesian learning using Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) and stochastic gradients. We find that a small number forward simulations can effectively approximate the ABC gradient, allowing Hamiltonian dynamics to efficiently traverse parameter spaces. We also describe a new simple yet general approach of incorporating random seeds into the state of the Markov chain, further reducing the random walk behavior of HABC. We demonstrate HABC on several typical ABC problems, and show that HABC samples comparably to regular Bayesian inference using true gradients on a high-dimensional problem from machine learning.

We are concerned with modeling the strength of links in networks by taking into account how often those links are used. Link usage is a strong indicator of how closely two nodes are related, but existing network models in Bayesian Statistics and Machine Learning are able to predict only wether a link exists at all. As priors for latent attributes of network nodes we explore the Chinese Restaurant Process (CRP) and a multivariate Gaussian with fixed dimensionality. The model is applied to a social network dataset and a word coocurrence dataset.